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Toss for the WIN spot   Triple Crown

Started 4/22/22 by Wintertrian; 10574 views.
In reply toRe: msg 73
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

4/30/22

My newest toss for the win, Smile Happy.  I went back over his races, esp. last, even a horse who is tired who has "hutzpa" is going to rev up a little when another horse starts to pass them, if they are alpha in any way, and .....well, he just doesn't do that.  I feel that if he is called upon for a duel, he's going to back down.  Would be interesting to see if Kerry Thomas agrees with me when his report comes out.  

Also reading that Charge It is quite difficult to manage, um, he appears to be somewhat "randy".  I don't think he's a good gate horse.  Apparently the kind of horse that wears everyone out in the barn.  (I remember Steve Asmussen having one like this, I forgot who though, really hard to handle horse. ) 

DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

4/30/22

"RANDY" I like it. What's a Randy.

Like a Karen of horses.

To All as my wonderful mom who lived to 103+ and probably could memorize all 20 Derb prospects; 

"It's a great life...if you don't weaken."

(d)

And Dogs only wants One key horse to finish Uno for Roso followed by the "Lookin at Lee" type colt and the Toss of Tosses 3rd.

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

4/30/22

The more I look at your tosses, the more I want to play them. smile

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

5/1/22

I would keep White Abarrio on the list as his 4 wins are @ GP. His last derby prep was yesterday @ GP....No breezes @ CD??

I'll let WA beat me on Sat. Great looking horse though!!

In reply toRe: msg 77
sovereign1

From: sovereign1

5/1/22

I am going to add Early Voting to this list of tosses for the WIN. stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye

KonaNative

From: KonaNative

5/2/22

Im tossing MO Donagal... Aqueduct horse for course 

Charge It...too green

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

5/2/22

sovereign1 said...

The more I look at your tosses, the more I want to play them.

You're welcome. :)    See, this is why giving picks and REASONS for them is so important.  Other people get something out of it.   

I absolutely respect anyone who gives their OWN reasons for liking or disliking a horse and I like to see the back-and-forth on it.   So I really respected Foresight's reasoning and him/her posting about their horse.  (despite that I didn't agree with the choice).  

What I don't respect, is after the post positiions come out, (my least favorite week of the year) when I pretty much stop looking at anything because all the "products" and "talking heads" come out of the woodwork, and people just start giving "picks", with none of their OWN reasoning at all.  (maybe they buy their opinions, I dunno)  .   On the forums I post on, no serious handicappers give respect for people who don't write a few sentences on why they picked who they picked......thousands of people have picks and they are a dime-a-dozen. 

f you can't explain WHY you like or dislike a horse, then no serious handicapper bothers reading your picks.    The number of guests signed in here, as well as the ones who contribute nothing, who just show up every year to benefit from other people's weeks and months of hard work, research and heavy lifting....but will never be able to cap a KY Derby successfully under their own steam. 

So that is why, in essence, I might disagree in a post about someone's pick..I want to make it clear that I did the work to reason out the chinks in their armour, (although I realize some people may misunderstand my doing that.)   I do it because I also think it "helps" others who are reading about the horses.  I also want other people to DING my picks, for the same reason.  Why I am wrong, call me out.  (so you didn't tell me exactly what you dislike about my some of the horses I liked yet, Sovereign-----that's okay, they aren't my final picks anyway, esp. w all the recent drop outs).  

TL;DR:    have reasons for your picks, and reasons for your tosses.  

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

5/2/22

Looks like an all-grey box for me if it rains because they are all Tapits and I like Tapits when the weather is wet.

White Abarrio - Charge It - Barber Road

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

5/2/22

that's a good mudder list.  I would add Messier to that if it's sloppy.  Is it SUPPOSED to rain?   I haven't heard, but one part of me was hoping it will as I already have my "mudder derby" picks fleshed out. (always have 2 tickets, one for dry, one for wet). 

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

5/2/22

Tell me why Messier if it's wet?

Thunderstorms Friday 93%

Showers Saturday 63%

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