that's a good mudder list.  I would add Messier to that if it's sloppy.  Is it SUPPOSED to rain?   I haven't heard, but one part of me was hoping it will as I already have my "mudder derby" picks fleshed out. (always have 2 tickets, one for dry, one for wet). 

Tell me why Messier if it's wet?

Thunderstorms Friday 93%

Showers Saturday 63%

Should be a muddy to sloppy track for the Oaks. 

Probably a dry track for the Derby according to weather reports i've been reading.

White Abarrio, Charge It, Messier...no prior off track experience.

Barber Road, 2nd place/Smarty Jones/sloppy

Ethereal Road, 3rd place/Maiden/Muddy....7th place/Blue Grass/ Good(off track??)

Smile Happy, 2nd place/Blue Grass/Good

Crown Pride, 6th place/Hyacinth Sk/Muddy

Zandon, 1st place/Bluegrass/Good

Epicenter, 1st place/Louisiana Derby/Good

These are your "mudders" for the derby if the weather is bad.

Looking for pp's for the Oaks.

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=11&param1=3740&param2=408&param3=1490214
 

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=CD&race=12&param1=4080&param2=476&param3=1625688

Well that didn’t work lol.  Just go here http://www.horse-races.net/library/links-pastperformances.htm  then there’s free pp’s by trainer.

Look at Zandon's face in the Bluegrass stretch run if you are uncertain of the track conditions of that race. 

sovereign1 said...

Tell me why Messier if it's wet? Thunderstorms Friday 93% Showers Saturday 63%

I think the track will be drying out on Sat by time Ky Derby is run.  at any rate, to answer your question, years of comparing horses who run well (not just the win spot) on slop tracks in any TC races (Musket Man, Mine That Bird, Ice Box, Justify, Good Magic, Audible, Exaggerator, Cherry Wine, Orb,  Revolutionary, Pioneer of the Nile, Make Music for Me (too many others to name), certain DIs seem potent for running ITM (or destroying a superfecta) in TC races.  Messier's 3.44 for that angle.  From 1940 to Justify, horses with a DI of 3.00 or higher win 35% of Ky Derbies and their stats on superfecta/ITM are much much higher.  So, I always give them an extra look, and then I look at pedigrees, which in Messier's case, w/ 40 dosage points, plus a sire, BMS, and Dam with 40+ to 50+, just not a horse pedigree-wise I would leave off a ticket, rain or shine?  I look for the top stamina breedings and the top speed breedings, and those are my top horses and everyone else is a fill-in for longshots in exotics. 

ChiefsCrown said...

Should be a muddy to sloppy track for the Oaks. 

Probably a dry track for the Derby according to weather reports i've been reading.

Thank you!

Wow! Thanks for the lesson! Looks like I have some midnight oil to burn....