This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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princeofdoc said...I do think Doppelganger may be better than 3rd string, and we may see that soon
Is he running in a race soon?
Last race he ran was Arkie Derby 25 days ago and came in 4th. He beat Kavod and Ben Diesel, 2 horses who have never won a graded stakes race. He ran 4th in the San Vincente at SA and beat Happy Jack, another horse who has never won a graded stakes race and has only won a maiden.
That sure doesn't sound like a typical Baffert 1st stringer to me.
Maybe I will give him benefit of a doubt and upgrade him to a Baffert 2nd stringer. That Doppleganger can win at Santa Anita is not a question....but I do want to see him race elsewhere again on a more tiring surface.
Of note, Crown Pride just outworked Doppleganger's last two 4F works (CDX versus Santa Anita fast track). Crown Pride half mile in 46:40. Doppleganger's half miles at SA are 49:00 on April 16th, and his best of the year 47:20.
But maybe that is by design, not getting Doppleganger to work bullets may teach him to relax more? Personally, I think teaching him to do blazing splits like Forbidden Kingdom may not be his wheelhouse. (hard to end up in the Baffert barn and NOT have to do stuff like that?) My gut says he needs longer races/more distance, so maybe he can learn to relax more while galloping along. His 6F works were always very good and he seemed better at the beginning of the year. Will be interesting to see what Bafteen does with him.
"My gut says he needs longer races/more distance, so maybe he can learn to relax more while galloping along."
Perhaps colt has already done a lot of relaxing in priors
Doppelgänger and Newgrange will target the Pat Day Mile
From Gulfstream/Welsch this morning: Simplification had another monster gallop out today in the mud. From Churchill: Rosie (whose opinion I value) seemed bowled over by Zandon & Crown Pride's workouts (although mostly for Crown's dressage skills). It will be interesting to see who she picks. I think she'll go with Epicenter, who she feels is a deserving favorite. I tend to agree!
Hope everybody is well!!
Long time. Bet the ranch you are the babe out there...Chicago?
I hope Rosie stays away from those 3; in my top 5. My other 2 are Mo D and Mike Smith with Santa Anita Derby winner. Like the paired jocks to horses.
Were caught up:)
I agree wholeheartedly! I think Simplification's work was excellent, as was Zandon and Crown.....I'm with Dog's this time; it's taken me years to finally agree with him!
princeofdoc said...I do think Doppelganger may be better than 3rd string,
I 'm just not sure that perhaps I upgrade Doppelganger to 2nd string though. I'm just looking at baffert history lately, his horses go off at low odds then don't do much of anything:
---Forbidden Kingdom didn't just beat him but beat him by almost 6 lengths, then he was 4th in Arkie Derby, a generally agreed upon terrible field of mostly allowance horses and 2 who had won lesser graded stakes.
---Newgrange - 6th in the Rebel Stakes; race was 2/26 and Newgrange dind't start working again til 4/03... Guess that 6th place took a lot out of him.
---Armagnac finished 2nd to last, beaten by 27 lengths yet went off at 3rd Fav under JV
---Pinehurst dead last in the UAE derby
--- Blackadder - went to Brisset, then sold at KEEN auction over the weekend
Baffert horses are often low odds, so I am careful with them. Seems to me that Bafteen may be on the receiving end of damaged goods. Guess we'll see during the "quote-90-day-on-paper-suspension".
I thought Tawny Port was the "looker" out of the workouts. (Of course, last time I fell for a looker was Mr. Hot Stuff, and he did awful.) Also I love Simplification. 2 horses who may be on my ticket somewhere.