No, of course not.....at least not until they decide the horse shouldn't run on May 7th, then we'll hear all the honest aspects of the horse's non-readiness.

But that does leave one to depend upon either someone's observation you think is unbiased, or your own lyin' eyes :)

+ All

Mike Welsh of the DRF is based at Gulfstream. Annually he takes assignment at Churchill to clock and watch. In video format. For years very solid assessment:

Otherwise you'll hear each trainer say: 

He came out of his last race terrifically.

Ran out past the mile and an eighth in last race; even with the (add trouble line)

Trainer's Owner speak: The owners immediately gave me the green light for the Derby..(praises owner and adds owner's wife's or husband's name, cat and dog) Adds highlight as owner's were in Hawaii or sponsoring a worthy cause. How great it has been the relationship 

About the horse: Talks about one of his best ever; and other relationships with sire 

The work: Couldn't have asked for anything better. Colt is kind, easy to handle, is filling out physically and timing is perfect for the added eighth mile. Relaxed and eating his tub empty 

Jockey: He read the field and by the turn I knew we had a great shot..but everybody has to wait til the wire 

Surface: He's run on multiple surfaces so if it comes up wet or molten lava, we're ready 

Post position: if good: We drew very well but jockey could start from the parking lot. Bad post: With the new gate in its 3rd year we're prepared to change things from the 17 slot 

TTB did not do anything to convince me to move him in.  One more work, don't think I will be convince to move him in

Anyone see a good list of upcoming scheduled works?  I am trying to find a good day to go out there, have not seen much talk about upcoming works.

I think Mo put in a maintenance work. The other Pletcher horse, Charge It, worked very well. I always look to the CD works to find a potential longshot. Charge It doesn't exactly qualify as a longshot, but he might be my surprise pick this year. Not only did he work very stron, especially his gallop out, but his greenness in the Fla. Derby indicates that he has some serious room to improve. If he puts it all together two weeks from now, watch out!

sovereign1 said...

Barber Road seemed to like the slop.

Oaklawn horse, they all pretty much have to like slop to run ITM.   If it's muddy I would certainly use him in a superfecta underneath.

Another one with 2 Halo Lines. 

He developed a bad case of seconditis in Arkansas, so having two Turn 2’s is just another two for him lol.  

I think they helped in the slop.

Oldbettowin said...

He developed a bad case of seconditis in Arkansas, so having two Turn 2’s is just another two for him lol

Best you can say about him is that Barber Road is a hard-tryer.   And he likes slop.   Not much to say about that race otherwise.   An over-hyped horse who had lower odds than she should have due to being a filly in a race that usually has only colts, yet was listed as "the class in the field" in the PPs (which she wasn't, but them saying that was a clue to just how weak this field was, if she was "the class".)  Kavod, who we knew was going to go to the front and show up in the superfecta "maybe" because he was taught to run on the front and gets gassed at the end, his "twin" We The People who was another E speed horse that got hammered because the PPs say E and EP horses do well at OP and many believed in his jockey, but who had only run an allowance and a maiden against nobodies, and had not even earned his auction price yet; a 3rd stringer for Bafteen (doppleganger) , and Un Ojo who won the Rebel because of the track conditons and weather on that day and who I would not have touched w/a 10 foot pole in the arkie derby.    And, Ben Diesel had never won a race since his maiden in 4 tries. 

That is the almost the definition of a weak prep race.  For $1 million no less.   Seems like a lot of trainers were asleep, or the way this race is scheduled just didn't fit in with any campaigns. 

Liked your spot on call on the above.

No one can say Winter is wishy-washie.