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Post your KY Derby horses here   Handicapping

Started May-7 by Wintertrian; 2052 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-7

Post the horses you like for your ticket.  4 horses, 6 horses, 8 horses, ALL , for your super high fives, exactas, superfectas, trifectas,  or a single win bets.   Good luck to everybody, including the jockeys and horses.  


Here are the horses who will be on my ticket.  I don't place my bets til I see the post parade. Since Animal Kingdom stood out on the field, with the look of a conquerer who was surveying the "spoils of his kingdom" before heading into the gates.  That's how I find my key horse nowadays.  



Homebreds.  They go on my ticket every year.   Pick one or 2 that you like; or none of them. 
Crown Pride, Classic Causeway, Charge It, Zozos.   (I would not use Zozos or Charge It in the win spot though).
 
Sprinkle in some Messier, Simplification, Epicenter.   (I would not use Epicenter in the win spot though)   
 
Super Bomber longshots.   I have rules on the odds for these. Must go off at 20-1 at post time, so here they are, with my reasoning:

Pioneer of Medina (++E/P8)  or  Tawny Port  ("the other P2")   Tawny reminds me of Mine That Bird.  I've no prejudice w/tapeta: Graham Motion trained Animal Kingdom on it for the Preakness after his win in the KY Derby.  AK also won the World Cup on tapeta.  If anything, I have more respect for multi-surface runners who can run on more than one surface.   Am I worried about their performances in the Risen Star?  Nope.  Winners of the Risen Star rarely win the KY Derby, but runners who do poorly in the Risen Star often run ITM w/huge odds in the KY Derby.  (I benefited from that last year with Mr. Big News, and the year before w/Country House.)  Instilled Regard or Commanding are other examples.    Sometimes, they even win: War Emblem, 6th in the Risen Star, 20-1 KY Derby winner

(You may of course use Zandon or Smile Happy.  They won't fit my odds requirement). 

I plan to fiddle around with 6-8 horses on a paper ticket. 

**Regrets:   
Zandon-  sorry but as a closer who isn't jet fast, I can't see you running by 19 other horses to hit the finish line first.   But hey, you made the cover of DRF.   Next out maybe Centerfold in Sport Illustrated if you win?   
Smile Happy, I'll let your daddy prove he can get a classic distance TC race winner.
Cyberknife -  despite that the filly you beat beat other fillies in the Oaks today, the AR Derby was one of the worst races in memory for me.  I just have no confidence in the AR Derby this year, but you do scare me! 
Barber Road- I LOVE you and your connections, and I do mean that.  But not today for me.  It won't rain enough. 
Mo Donegal- you're a Pletcher and your odds are going to have to be lot higher for me to take a risk on you; you look great on paper (but so did Bourbonic).   Pioneer of Medina and Charge It will have better odds.   BTW, I knew your trainer back when he was 40+ for 0 in the KY Derby and nobody could figure it out.  I hope one of you do something to help his record.   
Taiba - if you are superhorse everyone will know by tomorrow evening.  For now, you are a guy who is being thrown to the dogs off one brilliant race, and I hope you can handle what they have planned for you.  
Happy Jack - see you in the Belmont?  I hope so.  
Rich Strike - I barely knew yee.  
Summer is Tomorrow - love your name.  
White Abarrio - you are the only one I tossed besides cyberknife who really scares me.   But I went for the higher odds horse. Sorry.  You sure are gorgeous though!  If it's any consolation, Andy Beyer likes you. 

DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

May-7

Think jockey race for Key wheel Tris 

Rosario

Irad Ortiz Jr

In 1st  2nd + 3rd key 

Then the usual suspects

Prat (perhaps a tie with above 2)

Smith

Johnny Vee

Saez

No lesser LEMAIRE his only ride over the 2 days. 

The tosses and the rest of the field are what the player wants to play by $. There are IMO 5 to 6 tossers-beat me in Tri. 

My long shot hamburger helper in Tri is Tiz the Bomb, maybe super. 

White Abbario is hot with handicappers-Andy Beyer pick. He picked winner last year and is like 2 for 40. But his pick hits down under. Like anyone he could pick 3 no board.

 Public will like this grey roan. Out of GP Florida Derby as last he was 1:11 @ 6fl running 3rd in 11 field;  136.2, final 50.3. Gaffalione is a leading rider GSPk. Geroux is most under the radar/underrated. 

No one says is this the year a 1st for Japan's star. Mine Bird was 2yr old Canadian star. After big show of Japan in BC and Pegasus day..they are a force.

Hoofnote: Animal Kingdom campaign came by way of turf to Turfway Park plastic track to win Derby. This is about exactly what Tiz the Bomb's campaign is. He missed the track 9fl record by a needed nostril.

Hoofnote Deux: Husker give a shout out if you are amongst us!

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-7

I have reasons for believing Messier will win.  I also have reasons to believe Epicenter will win.  I also have reasons to believe Taiba will win.  I also have reasons to believe Barber Road will finish second and not just because of his seconditis.  I also have misgivings about each one.  Did JR ease up a bit on Messier once he knew Taiba had them?  Is Epicenter fast enough?  Did Taiba get the best butt rub in the SA Derby?

I already bet a little on Barber Road.  I’m going to bet probably another $100 on the derby today so not really swinging for the fences but at least giving it a shot.  I don’t think Epicenter will win.  Going with JR and Messier to win and I’m going to play some exacta and trifecta wheels with Messier keyed in first and BR and CC keyed in second and third.  Leaving Epicenter out, which I will probably regret lol.  
 

Possible for honors underneath:  Barber Road, Classic Causeway, Pioneer of Medina, Taiba, Zozos, Tiz the Bomb, Tawny Port, Zandon, Mo Donegal, Smile Happy.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

May-7

Crown Pride to win at 15-1 or higher, otherwise I sit it out.  [I'm betting the house, baby - 20 bucks ]

5 dollah exacta box - Crown/White Abarrio/Epicenter/Simplification

Good luck to everyone who decides to play.  Most of all, have fun.

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

May-7

My main ticket is a 10/20/40 on Zandon. I was going to play someone else if his odds stood in the area of 3-1.

Then my exotic 50-cent Trifecta

  1. Epicenter, Messier, Zandon
  2. Epicenter, Messier, Zandon, Mo Donegal, Smile Happy
  3. Epicenter, Messier, Zandon, Mo Donegal, Smile Happy, Charge It, Simplification, Barber Road

And then my $5 "Stick it where the sun don't shine but with all my love, From Bob B." Exacta box: Messier, Taiba

In reply toRe: msg 1
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

May-7

Charge It

twoshots

From: twoshots

May-7

For outside shots I like Pioneer of Medina and Zozos who have seasoning and good final-quarter times; and Tiz The Bomb just intrigues me. Not a good record on dirt, but he has the perfect name to blow up the exotics, and just might be fast enough.

$1 exacta: Epicenter, Messier, Tis The Bomb, Zandon over those four, Mo Donegal, Pioneer of Medina, Zozos

$1 tri: Epicenter, Messier/those 2, Mo Donegal, Zandon/those 4, Tiz The Bomb, Pioneer of Medina, Zozos.

$5 saver to win on Crown Pride

In reply toRe: msg 7
pianot

From: pianot

May-7

$5 WPS White & Crown

$2 ex box- white crown epi simp zan

cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

May-7

A: Epicenter

B: Taiba, Messier

C: Mo Donegal, Zandon, Pioneer of Medina, Smile Happy

D: Charge It, Tiz the Bomb, Zozos, Simplification

Various combos, centered heavily on Epicenter in the win spot.

OldForesight

From: OldForesight

May-7

If the track continue to play the same way it has been playing since opening day, then closers are doomed. Unless a horse is much the best such as Secret Oath, if you are not forwardly placed and within six lengths off the lead you are not going to win.

My pick is Smile Happy. I expect him to fall in behind the leaders, save ground along the rail and make his move at the 3/8ths pole. Not to mention jockey Cory Lanerie is the second winningest jockey at Churchill Downs with 19 riding titles. 

Ex. Smile Happy/ Messier and Charge It.        

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