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What were you right about & wrong about   Triple Crown

Started May-8 by Wintertrian; 3744 views.
In reply toRe: msg 42

From: Oldbettowin


Rich Strike’s splits:  23.08 - 24.24 - 24.70 - 26.29 - 24.30

             Epicenter:  22.28 - 23.92 - 24.68 - 26.20 - 25.64

The last quarter was the only quarter that Rich actually ran faster than Epicenter.


From: smartyslew


Messier had the lead at 8f  36.96, after 6f  10.44 in 3rd  that split was 26.52 for Messier both top 2

finishers ran that q faster than Messier noted above on your message,  epicenter in 3rd  37.08, Rich in 14th 38.31

That was Riches only slow split, last Q 24.30 Epicenter slow Quarter like you noted for the field, Final Q 25.64

That is doable for a horse in 6th place at 6f in 10.88 imo, I mean his final Q 25.64 up close after a hot pace. 

The first 2 finishers were tracking the pace from 6f to 8f , the next 5 finishers were coming from bad locations except

3rd Zandon and 3-7 places were to far back or wide ,they had decent final Quarters. Riches  24.30, passing 13 horses.

Imo Richs Strike ran the best race looking at his splits from Oldbettowin's Data.  Not Epicenter like Many's   opinion that 

I respect, Rich Strike was not separated by much in the 3rd and 4th split from Epicenter before the final Q.

3rd  24.68- 24.70, 4th  26.20-26.29. .. He didn't come to watch, he came to play..

Thanks Oldbettowin



From: Oldbettowin


Yeah I think that quarter from 6f to the mile was Messier & Crown Pride’s doing and they all gladly took a breather.  I don’t know how much ground Rich actually covered but he really ran very evenly.


From: princeofdoc


It does seem odd.....a reflection on the track itself?  Perhaps a little more moist than we noticed?  Or comparable to the FL Derby situation?  Or the crop wasn't as good as we initially thought, or weren't prepared for the 10f?  Or, as most think, the pace was so fast, and too many stayed too close.

I do wonder about how the jocks can know the difference between 1:10 and 1:11 in the heat of the battle.....can they tell exactly how fast they are traveling?  Or at least intuit with in parts of a second?


From: Wintertrian


OldForesight said...

From here on out, there are plenty of graded stakes races for 3yr. old in the next 4 months.

I just have a strange feeling that we will find out that this year's derby field was not quite as "brilliant" as everyone thought it was.  Most of the field were barely running in the stretch yet the winner was pretty much running the same pace for the entire race.   That doesn't speak well of this field. 

Combine with a bunch of top money jocks who really rode sub-par for a race of this level, esp. Rosario who should have won this race, he didn't time the move correctly.    

And, I can't help but go back to the Bluegrass as being the weakest prep race of all, with only 1 GSW in the bunch.   And now looking back at that field, we can see this even moreso looking at who he beat.  Yet Zandon was supposedly a super horse as far as the cappers opinions played out.    

It's just not adding up for me. 

I don't question the winner at all, brilliant ride (right from the get-go, rider drops back and takes the horse directly to the rail, a jockey who actually understands ground loss!!!!!)   and a horse who seemed to really like the surface (maybe he never liked plastic that much in the first place?)  ----- but the rest of this field just petered out in the stretch and that isn't what you see in horses who have actual and ample stamina for 1-1/4 mile distance, is it?  Even after the speed failed where were the "stamina horses"?   They literally stopped running after the turn other than 3 horses.  Looked kinda sad acutally.  

95% of the field couldn't run 1-1/4 miles is what it ends up looking like to me.  But nobody was going to beat that ride.  



From: smartyslew


grinningYou didn't like Rosarios ride ? He got beat  and imo it wasn't because of his ride ?

He survived the forward group .

6 furlong time 1.10.88 in 6th place seems a good place to be early, in that wicked pace.

the 2 youngsters Taiba and Charge It right behind him and with no foundation didn't pack the gear imo

Pray they are survivors and not ruined.


From: Wintertrian


smartyslew said...

You didn't like Rosarios ride ? He got beat  and imo it wasn't because of his ride ?

Joel timed his move badly, (a tad too soon) and in addition, never got the horse to switch leads.  Watched the race about 20 times now again.   Horse was already 42 days since last race, so he was probably wobbly-legged in the stretch....... I rarely if ever pick a horse to win the KY Derby past 35 days.  42 days is not a good bet but maybe Epicenter being Epicenter, he would have won if Sonny Leon was riding him   LOL   But has it occured to anyone that maybe Zandon and Epicenter actually aren't *true* 1-1/4 horses?  


From: Gerh


Have to disagree Winter.Epicenter was beaten by a freak on the day.I can’t fault the ride.

In reply toRe: msg 50

From: smartyslew


I can't take away from a great ride by Leon to win by .11 and say Rosario moved to soon that was part of the great ride.

In fact I gave Both jocks A+ rides imo.....

Rich Strike
181 1/4 
32 1/4 

From: DogsUpWired


+ All 

To some extent, point races to the  KD Derby were not outstanding. Future.. No Alydar -Affirmed. And  as many a time in recent years; all could watch 2nd leg and the Belmont and witness a TC champ accomplish the mission. And back then; general and sports media splashes and cover stories before and after.

Now the Triple Crown crop is homogenized to perhaps 3 separate winners, compounded by reasonable scratch Derby Winner skipping Preak, and the recent fan history of having a significant record of Triple Crown winners abundant; that prior there was a 25 year gap between TC winners. The winner won; boils down to  Willie Shoemaker who said:

When you're riding, only the race in which you're riding is important. There are one hundred and ninety nine ways to beat, but only one way to win; get there first.