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Preakness Bets   General Discussions

Started May-11 by pianot; 10210 views.
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-14

If one looks at his previous races, one thing becomes very clear—he needs a decent pace to run into.  He got it in the derby, but I’m not so sure he would have gotten it in the Preakness.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

May-14

I was also impressed with Rich Strike's FuPeg impersonation. Looking back on his career, his previous win was at CD, a mile race that he won by 17 lengths. It happened to be the 30k claiming race much talked about. His next dirt start was marred by significant trouble in the race. He then stepped up to a stakes race at the FG, in which he ran poorly. That was still in his juvy year.

His races as a sophomore were all on polytrack, which may have masked his improvement. His Equibase numbers progressed with every race, where he may have competed against horses, perhaps better suited for that surface. The Smart Strike in his pedigree may have led folk to believe that he is a turf or polytrack horse, where in reality, he might have been a dirt horse all along, compromised by the Turfway surface. It wasn't until he got back on dirt, at Churchill, that we were able to see the full degree of improvement the horse enjoyed from two to three.

Of course, all this is hindsight on my part. We won't know until he gets back on the track, whether the race was a fluke or the horse just loves CD, However, there was every reason to believe that the horse had another forward move in him, which if true, would make him competitive in the race. We also know that the 10f distance would be too much for many in the field. As it turns out, he was not one of them, too say the least. In my opinion he was much the best, and his win was not just a function of the pace. Epicenter was eighth after the ridiculous half, so I don't think he was compromised by the pace, as he was more than a full second off of it. He got first run run in the stretch, and was easily run down despite a fairly uncompromised trip. RS may not have looked like a major contender going in, but he sure looked like the best horse coming out, at least relative to races at that distance. The Preakness, while shorter, is farther than any other horse in the field save one, has ever won, and that one he beat on the square on the first Saturday in May!.

DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

May-14

To Prince +All

Regarding odds for Preakness and Rich Strike. Your case is very sound. 

I'd say that the final betting odds in the Derby and the finish: Longest shot wins and fav 2nd does play into the M/L Preakness as to the projection; if Rich Strike was in. 

Kinda an Alydar/Affirmed affair.

I am climbing back off the edge about the Belmont Stakes. If the jockey can handle the measure of the track and both colt and jockey can handle the Big Sandy surface; and Epicenter does not win the Preakness, the M/ line at least should be close enough. As was top 2 in Derby M/L finishing 2nd + 3rd.

The trainer should have the colt ready; yet both trainer and jockey are sitting on one G1 stakes lifetime.

Trainer could finish his Triple Crown campaign; with win, as the underdog trainer who rose from the ashes; didn't give up. Even beyond Mine that Bird's under the radar crew and trainers like

Nick Zito, as he made history in 2004 and 2008 stymying the Triple Crown tries of both Smarty Jones and Big Brown

GioPonti

From: GioPonti

May-14

For those of us who use data analytics in handicapping, here’s a neat stat looking at the past 20 runnings of the Preakness (217 runners, if my data is accurate) vis-à-vis their Kentucky Derby running line:

Preakness runners who also ran in the Kentucky Derby and were positioned in the first 6 at the Quarter call in the Derby: 36 runners and 11 winners (31%);

Preakness runners who also ran in the Kentucky Derby and were further back than 6th at the Quarter call: 55 runners and 4 winners (7%);

Preakness runners who ran in the Kentucky Oaks 3 runners and 2 winners (67%);

Preakness runners who did not run in either the Kentucky Derby or Kentucky Oaks: 123 runners and 3 winners (2%).

I find that kind of interesting, but not really surprising. A lot were well meant in the KD but had traffic or other issues. Nonetheless, Derby E/P types and Oaks participants made up 18% of the Preakness field but 65% of the winners!

Note that the second group (not the E/P types from the Derby) did show a nice Place percentage in the Preakness, with 9 running second.

This would point me to the obvious choice: Epicenter, with Secret Oath as a backup but only if she goes off at decent odds (not likely).

Happy Jack might be the only other KD entrant, and he was basically a non-factor.

OldForesight

From: OldForesight

May-14

Aside from the 7 races the horse had to show the connection some potential for them wanting so hard to run him in the derby. And I don't think it was "derby fever".  They have Rich Strike on a schedule of how they want to space his race. They could have taken the Tawny Port route and ran him in the Lexington Stakes for more derby points but they stuck to their program. And they are sticking to their program by not running him back so quick for the Preakness.          

pianot

From: pianot

May-14

Thanks! Interesting horse for sure!

OldForesight

From: OldForesight

May-14

I don't think he was dependent on a fast setup when he won by 17 lengths at Churchill Downs. He was in the lead in that race at the 3/8ths pole after they went 22:4 and 46:2.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gATXg6-yh_g

pianot

From: pianot

May-14

This is interesting stuff. I don't think she'll have long odds but never know. I'm thinking anything 5/1 or better is worth it.

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-14

That all sounds great until you realize that two of those three Preakness winners of the last 20 years that did not run in the derby or Oaks happened in the last five years.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

May-14

Yes, thanks, interesting data......but we always need to interpret the stats, and as Oldbet pointed out, the last 5 years were significant for the non-Derby entrants in the Preakness.  Creative Minister is a late bloomer and Early Voting was held out of Derby; either one winning would not be a big surprise.  But I will be looking at the entrants from the Derby most closely, and Epicenter/Simplification box is not unreasonable either.

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