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Belmont Posts   General Discussions

Started Jun-7 by pianot; 6299 views.
pianot

From: pianot

Jun-7

Post Horse Jockey Odds
1 We the People Flavien Prat 2-1
2 Skipplongstocking Manny Franco 20-1
3 Nest Jose Ortiz 8-1
4 Rich Strike Sonny Leon 7-2
5 Creative Minister Brian Hernandez Jr. 6-1
6 Mo Donegal Irad Ortiz Jr. 5-2
7 Golden Glider Dylan Davis 20-1
8 Barber Road Joel Rosario 10-1
GioPonti

From: GioPonti

Jun-7

Another small-ish field!

I put together a database with dosage data for the past 20 years, and this year is the only one where not a single entrant has any points in the stamina wing (S + P).

The game sure has changed in the past 20 years, with (apparently) more and more emphasis on speed and precocity.

pianot

From: pianot

Jun-7

I'm waiting for PPs to be available to do review but agree with you assessment of the field and the industry change.

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Jun-7

Ethereal Road was the only one with points (1-0) in the S-P stamina wing. Too bad for the scratch.

In reply toRe: msg 1
Northof64

From: Northof64

Jun-7

$20 WP on Nest $10 exacta box Nest / Creative Minister / Rich Strike $5 trifecta box same equals $130.   Good luck to all……. North 

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

Jun-7

Anyone who is looking at dosage today does not understand it.   The most recent prolific sire, Tapit, born in 2001, is not rated.   They stopped doing the ratings so no new ones will be identified.   Until that happens, it is a waste of time to look at it or consider it

pianot

From: pianot

Jun-7

Well, yes might be outdated. Winter uses 20 yrs of data for the race, had some success.  Smarty throws out alot of data. Others just share feelings. Thought it was the point of this place. People bring feelings based upon alot of things.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Jun-7

The m/line maker is disrespecting the Derby winner, IMO, in terms of projecting how the public will bet.

I think some fail to remember Reed entered Rich Strike in the Derby to see if he could impress enough to run in The Belmont.  His thinking was, pass a stamina test well enough and then our original target [The Belmont] is winnable.

He skipped The Preakness to have his horse primed to run an optimum effort in NY.  

Expect to see him in the mix stalking the speed.  If he's doing that, he has a big shot.  If Sonny dawdles with him it will be much harder, especially since Sonny will be unaccustomed to timing a one run type of race on a full circuit around Big Sandy.  Not knocking him but better riders, indeed, have gotten lost out there.

If Rich Strike can gallop the race evenly, no need for Sonny to put his head into it. Just keep him even and let his conditioning take over.  I find it interesting despite the short field.

Of course, it would be more interesting and probably bettable if there were at least 10 or, even better a full field entered.

DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

Jun-7

And All...

We spent 6 months of data mining and arrived at Derby winner...as  the worst and long shot, not nearly a paycheck horse.

Crops are half what they numbered.

Derby entries have 2 and 3 races now and are in the Derby. Points are scewing a new mix. A jockey and trainer got their 1st grade win in the Ky Derby via $30 K claim. Third M/L for Bel Stakes and may not hit the board. 

Rich Strike is a tired colt and in the morning had a go at keeping up with pony early.

The soil at the Big Sandy is not as Churchie D's.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-7

Looks like some of the Other Numbers are in Question in my view 12's and 24's are in order.

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