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American Derby and Dwyer Stakes 7/2/2022   Handicapping

Started Jul-2 by Wintertrian; 982 views.

From: TexSquared


I should have noticed this earlier... why is the American Derby suddenly a dirt race? This is one of the races Churchill "stole" from Arlington when they closed that track for good. The American Derby was the local prep for the Secretariat Stakes, so it was a turf race.  

[edited to add]

Oh, their turf course needs time to grow in the roots deeper... ouch...

Roger Attfield commented on it yesterday at Woodbine, the course must have been shit Derby week:

"She's an interesting filly to train and she was unlucky this winter. Churchill was a disaster with that turf course. It's funny really because the jockey that rode her came back and said, you know, she wasn't having it with the turf course, the turf course was too loose, and then it turned out that it wasn't really ready to run."

In reply toRe: msg 2

From: Wintertrian


Wintertrian said...

Am interested to see how longshot Kitodan does in this race.   He can run on synth, turf, and dirt but not sure about dirt at "this" distance.   I do love omni-surface horses, though, like Einstein, they are often just a cut above. Kuchar (uncle mo)  if he remains in condition is a pretty formidable colt, IMHO.  Doesn't give in easily.  Watched him a few times at Oaklawn.   Also like Red Run (Gun Runner) but doesnt seem to be performing up to his breeding.    McLauren Vale and Rattle n Roll will take the $$.   Rattle n' Roll might win this.

Like the chalk, Charge It, in the Dwyer. 

Diddn't play it -- but looks like I was on the money for the ex, tri and superfecta for the American Derby...those were the only horses I liked and they came in..   

And Charge It won the Dwyer.  I would not have played that race anyway, as win would have been chalk, and I had no thoughts on any of the other runners since I didn't see how any other horse could beat him in here. 


(Didn't see the final odds on McLauren-- Not really a fan of that horse, he's never done anything except win a maiden at SA and an allowance race and is a "fader" and can't get the job done, certainly not against this crowd,nor a horse like Creative Minister either..... but I assumed he would take $$ and be chalk or 2nd chalk. )  


From: Gerh


Runningsonofagun got a 73 Beyer.

In reply toRe: msg 13

From: smartyslew


Thanks, how do you get that number for 2nd place so fast ?

A one turn Mile takes some of the luster projecting a 2 turn effort at a Classic distance

With JV being the Pilot at Belmont,  Equibase 117 to 78 for 2nd place . 


From: Gerh


If you go to the “stakes results” section in DRF,then hit details.




When I saw the name, I assumed it was a turf race as well. When I turned late to see the race and saw them finishing on dirt, I was surprised.


From: Wintertrian


Why I mentioned Kitodan in my post before the race, I noted the race was on dirt when he came up in my Virtual Stable notification where I had a watch on him.   I  figured he "might be" an omni-surface runner as he started out that way at GS...probably what made them enter him in the Hopeful, where he did badly (but certainly not the worst horse in the race.)

 So he can run on Turf, AW, dirt/tapeta. 

I would love to have a horse like this.  A horse who can run on any surface has special qualities, IMHO. 

(I also had a matching notification on Corrales, IMHO a terribly underrated jockey which helped seal the deal for me).      

Of note Kuchar ran just like I thought he would, how he did at Oaklawn when I saw him.... he is very tough, he will duel and he did it here too.    I am more apt to appreciate a horse who gives 110% over one who wins easily, esp. as they mature.  Those easy wins by precocious colts often don't last.   Once you see one who does not give in easily, over and over again, that's the ones I save in my stable. 

In reply toRe: msg 2

From: Wintertrian


Guess what?   Kitodan did it again.   (I have all the omni-surface horses in my virtual stable, the ones who can run on anything. If you see something with a horse, dn't give up on them if you really like something you see).   

First time he did it in the Audubon Stakes (below) for $82.00. 

Today, 9/05/22, Two races later, he wins at 1-5/16th at KY Downs.  Went off at 20-1

R10 KY Downs today, R10.  Paid $43.48

Audobon Stakes topic here:

Gave him some props here, kept my mind on him:

I think he's on the map now and doubt those prices will happen again.