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Southwest at OP   Triple Crown

Started Jan-23 by princeofdoc; 817 views.

From: princeofdoc


Entries are out, and Baffert is shipping Arabian Knight, drew the #4, with Johnny V aboard.  As he was my #1 pick in the top 20 Jan.1st, I am expecting big things from him, though there could be rain.  Cox has 3 runners, should be competitive, but if AK is as good as some of us think, the rest are running for 2nd.

I'm interested in Sun Thunder too....wondering how good he might be.  He won easily at OP on an off track, after coming in 3rd in his debut in a key race with both Determinedly and Shopper's Revenge.  They paid a lot for him, let's see how does without Lasix


From: Wintertrian


princeofdoc said...

though there could be rain. 

I watch OP pretty much daily.   And track is rarely "dry" all winter 

HOWEVER, on the Big Stakes days, it doesn't matter, because whatever the weather is they will, as most tracks do for graded stakes,  have it rolled, sealed, packed down and whatever else makes it do what tracks do for graded stakes.  Plus all the shippers I have never seen, coming from tracks I don't watch.   There are years when the E/P8 or  E8 horses win, and that is not how the 8F races come in during a typical week at Oaklawn.   Pus the track does seem to change from year to year, according to how they remix it.   I've tracked all the running styles for years now. At the beginning of the meet this year S3 horses were winning on the wet days, and that's not a usual winning style at OP.  Since then it's been all over the place.   I would, however, give any horses with a "P" running style a look, they seem to run ITM more than their fair share lately and of course, the usual E/P? types who always do well at Oaklawn.  

On a day to day basis, I play patterns that leap out at me.  Like last week Keannelly shows up....this guy NEVER comes to oaklawn, and turned out to be a big longshot winner for me.   And then I know all the "little guy" longshot trainers, like Westerman, Prather, Milligan, Haran, Deville.....I look for certain names.    So I rarely play the graded stakes races,  I'm a longshot player so I am looking for a $15-25 horse.  And I have done pretty well lately, like I'll get a $200+ $1 exacta playing it straight.   Cuz I'm notoriously cheap. 

What was interesting this year is that Bejarano is killing it, and in his younger days he's won the most Southwest Stakes other than 1 other person in history.......yet, not one trainer is using him here.     And,  also Cox ditches Talamo on Hit Show and puts him on Jaces Road.  (Talamo ran cox horse 2nd in the Smarty Jones and rides routes pretty well at OP, Manny Franco doesn't ride at OP at all ).    The PPs say Talamo isn't doing well at this track, that's cuz he rides crappy in the sprints.   Which is most of the races at OP.  But in the routes, he actually does well. For some reason the PPs don't really tell you these things very clearly???  I always give Talamo a look if it's not a sprint.   

Anyway, I don't pay much attention to the SW stakes, because if you look at the horses Baffert has brought.......they don't turn into anything.  Newgrange, Castaway, Secret Circle, Conveyance, etc.    Its usually the local trainers who are either based AT oaklawn  or FG  or close by that are at OP a whole lot (cox, asmussen, moquett, Holthus), etc. who have horses that make it to the TC Races, OR they come out of the Arkansas Derby  like Creator, Cyberknife, Super Stock, Curlin, etc. who move forward.  Where Baffert will bring Charlatan or Nadal, though he did okay w/American Pharoah and Bodemeister. 

Anway, I haven't capped the race yet.   Usually horses who win 7F races are very fast, in general (something I've always noticed about that particular distance), so baffert horse hasn't run a route but you know he is fast.  But so is Corona Bolt, Jaces, Hit Show (his very first race was at 7f that he won).

I'm going to look over the PPs for horses who have run a few routes and who are not over-raced.  
I went back over my OP notes:
---- Sun Thunder beat a bunch of mostly unraced maidens at OP on 1st time lasix, but his late pace seems better than what the PPs have down for him. 
-----Western Ghent was M/L 30-1 and went up over 50-1 at post in the Smarty Jones at OP, we threw him into the superfecta because Torres is a killer good rider at OP.  Horse starts off well but can never close the deal. Had he not gotten Torres that day we would not have used him at all. 
-----Frosted Departure - ran a sprint in last against 4 other speedy horses. I had him 4th, he ran 1st. He was more of an EP/1 running style but I guess since he won equibase has him as an E/P6 now. The sprint before that, I had him 3rd as an E/P3, he seemed to have a closing kick.  He ran 4th and there was no kick.   The routes he ran before these at CD and Keen he did not run ITM.  I don't think McPeek had him figured out yet but he looks like a sprinter and I would use him 1st or 2nd in a 7F race since he's run 9 times now. 
---- Red Route One I have never seen at OP, but Asmussen started him as a maiden at 1-1/16th.  I like seeing that, when a trainer knows he has a router, and has never tried him as a sprinter.  I would use this one somewhere on my ticket.
---- Hit Show - his race at OP he was a shoe-in, with a trainer who is 39% with beaten favorites, and he was getting first-time Lasix.  There weren't any other trainers in that race who had a better record and he had the best last out speed, and indeed, he won.  I think Red Route One might have a better rally than him though (if Asmussen has him right) .  I might put Hit Show........3rd? 

These are the only horses i *know* anything about. 

 Off top of my head I like Hit Show, Red Route One, Jaces and Arabian Knight.  This is a route race, there are a lot of horses in here who have never run a route. So who knows.  If playing an exacta, put a longshot 2nd in one of them (any horse over 8-1 at post).  

As for trainer stats, I don't even LOOK at Baffert stats anymore,  they are always higher than everyone else's, so why even bother with that part on the PPs?  We already know what his stats are but we don't know how / why for sure.  LOL 

In reply toRe: msg 2

From: Wintertrian


P.S..  I'm not betting this race. Because I have no idea what to do with Bolt d'Oro, and i can't see a way to make money on the race unless something very weird happens. 


From: princeofdoc


I really like Sun Thunder to come in 2nd.....or if AK falters, possibly even win.  I bet him the futures at 175-1 hoping he runs well and moves on to another prep after this one.


From: Wintertrian


princeofdoc said...

He won easily at OP on an off track, after coming in 3rd in his debut in a key race with both Determinedly and Shopper's Revenge.

BRIS PPs had King Russell who ran 2nd at speed of 66 Last Out and a Late Pace of 73;   They had Seas of Normandy who ran 3rd at speed fig 74 Last Out and a Late Pace of 70 on the PPs. 

Sun Thunder towered over that field, went off as uber-chalk,  so it was no surprise he won that race. I had averaged the Speed Last Race from  Bris PPs for the field and it was only 69.9. I still cannot properly access his class for the Southwest because of who he ran against. 

I"m going to change my mind about not wagering and put a few singles on Red Route One if I end up going to the track.   As I had said above on Wed I think Asmussen will have him right (he ran 3rd to Forte in BCFuturity and beat Instant Coffee in that race, too, as well as Two Phils and Frosted Departure......and he won't had the kind of bad start he had in his unless he's gone backwards I expect him to have even improved!    

.   Both our borses are M/L 10-1 so hope one of us gets an ITM horse!!!  .  


In reply toRe: msg 5

From: Wintertrian


I got a little teary eyed remembering so many of these Southwest Stakes races. 

I remember when Pletcher swooped in with One Liner.  He had run 2 races in his entire life, both sprints.  Lookin at Lee ran 3rd, who Asmussen trained similarly to Red Route One. Neither horse had ever run at Oaklawn at all.   Petrov ran 2nd in that one after running 2nd in the Smarty Jones.  One Liner could be Corona Bolt.

I don't think the Bris PPs get things right because there isn't enough *perspective*.  For instance, I am starting to be suspicious about Red Route One's late pace figs.  That 104 is a lot faster then any race other race he ever closed in.  

Then we have the year Far Right won, w/Moquet with Mike Smith riding.  He had just won the Smarty Jones Stakes previously.  None of the horses he beat in that one run ITM in the Southwest, as predicted.   A big longshot, Truth or Else, w/McPeek, came in 2nd at like 23-1 odds who had only run at New York tracks.   And then 3rd, Lukas horse Mr. Z, the horse who was "supposed to win" and had top billing in Class, Backspeed, Prime Power.....highest across the board in everything in addition to killer high E1 and E2 ratings.  his year that could be Arabian Knight but could also be Frosted Departure if you want to look at E1 and E2 ratings.    

Then we had the year Suddenbreakingnews won.  Worst race he ever ran, climbed out of the gate, looked like he was going to run last, and then came closing like a banshee.   Whitmore, who we now know was a champion "sprinter extraordinaire", came in 2nd  (a truly amazing horse in retrospect).  Then for 3rd another 22-1 super longshot, American Dubai.    Baffert had a horse in this one.......he ran 4th (Collected).   

Should we expect at least ONE 20-1 or something LS here?  It's happened enough times. 

This is typical Oaklawn.  A difficult assigment and a crapshoot. 


From: smartyslew


Very Meaningful Post, wow thanks for your time and DD . There is a lot there that is helpful imo.

Heart and Soul digging deep. Thanks again.


From: pianot


How did you call this sloppy track? WOW


From: princeofdoc


Well, Beta Bob has a good one in Arabian Knight......I don't usually take such a short price on Derby futures this early, but I'm happy with my 16.5-1 bet.  He ran huge here, and I expect more in the coming months.

Your intuition re: Red Route One was right on track.  This one can get better and make some noise.

Msg 2306.10 deleted