Continuing the fun but futile exercise in ranking top 20 to win the Derby.....I removed a few I really like, as they haven't worked (Post Time, Cave Rock, Loggins).  Obviously Feb. preps will shake up this list, but why not start with something?!?  Top 2 are unchanged from Jan.

1) Arabian Knight
2) Forte
3) Faustin
4) Victory Formation
5) Verifying
6) Blazing Sevens
7) Practical Move
8) Dubyuhnell
9) Havnameltdown
10) Tapit Trice
11) Jackstown
12) Shopper's Revenge
13) Instant Coffee
14) Signator
15) Recruiter
16) Newgate
17) Red Route One
18) National Treasure
19) Geaux Rocket Ride
20) Wadsworth

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Maybe this will help : Beta Dominates Beyers, Not sure if run ups are considered
Like in Bris numbers. S A dominates track with most listed. Beta has top Five 8.5 f
2 turn races, I follow those. Instant Coffee 92 Top non Beta listed at 2 turns.
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through 02/05/2023

It is helpful, thanks....

But my rankings are only slightly influenced by Beyers.  I compare speed and pace on specific tracks on specific days, as well as work patterns, pedigree, and stable success.  I watch and re-watch races, as the visual impression cannot be underrated.  Finally, I go out on a limb with hunches, like Army Mule as a sire (Recruiter).

Beta is of course troubling.  He is the preferred trainer for the conglomerates who overpay for the well-bred colts, and they appear to be quite loyal.  I always root for the lesser expensive colts under the care of a younger trainer, but I can't ignore the talent of the athletes he is given either.  I think Arabian Knight is quite special, and that's why I still rank him #1, though Forte is also very talented.  At this point, I have them way above the others in terms of Derby win candidates at this stage of training.  Someone else could accelerate their performance and readiness, and I hope they do....but at this time it seems like it's those for the top spots.

I am curious if Brown's only top 20 colt improves, as I think he has some rising potential.....as well as Gargan's, both of whom we'll see soon.  Asmussen's top colt (in my ranking) worked impressively and uncharacteristically fast today, love his upside too.

I included Wadsworth as #20, not because I think he'll win the Derby, but Cox is the best strategist, by far, in the major group of trainers, and I think he'll punch his ticket to the Derby with him via Turfway.

My mystery pick is Beta's Jackstown....ran impressively in debut last summer, now back on the worktab, should race soon, I would imagine.  I like those that matured early enough to win early, then needed time off but come back strongly.  That's how I picked I'll Have Another at 250-1

I put Beyers out there for the people who like Beyers, for me its to compare

to the data I like to use, some people like to baby step beyers from 5 furlongs

to 9f or longer and compare the nicks that seem to work from 5 to 9F and look for new trends

that carry their speed over a distance of ground . I miss Romans pf's ,now that I am older

I wait for the 2 turn races to compare. The Thing I like at DRF is the track Variants 

for 2 turn races, that's about it. I don't get the bris numbers until individual PP's

if I did I would put them on here this time of year.

princeofdoc said...

I watch and re-watch races, as the visual impression cannot be underrated. 

For sure.  I actually think just using PPs w/out doing this is a waste of time.  As a matter of fact, if you were unable to get PPs, and were simply to just watch replays, most would probably do better.   When I saw oxbow and will take charge out on the track and how they looked coming around the turns.  How WTC won the Rebel that year and paid $58 to win, and then which Oxbow showed in spades when he won the preakness and paid $32.80 to win.  ditto, Country House, who was always coming, coming, coming down the stretch but was running out of track at 9F.  

Since so many in the parimutuel pools are not watching races as you do, that's probably 65+ % of punters you will beat and who  are putting money into the race that you can snatch up.  

 

no horses in my ky derby stable til I see FOY, FL Derby, Bluegrass, Wood and Ark Derby. 

princeofdoc said...

I go out on a limb with hunches, like Army Mule

Surprised you didn't go with one of my picks in the Holy Bull, Shadow Dragon, at 38-1.  (Sire:   Army Mule).   You should stick with your sires if you like them.   I actually like this Mott horse better than Rocket Can, and hope to see him in next race, just didn't love him for the Holy Bull as much as Rocket Can at the time for that race.