Apologize for being a week late, like to get these out on the 1st, especially in front of the preps.  Next month will definitely be interesting, as both the Ark Derby and FL Derby are on the 1st.  I may have to wait until the end of the day :)

1) Forte
2) Arabian Knight
3) Practical Move
4) Tapit Trice
5) Instant Coffee
6) Verifying
7) Kingsbarns
8) Litigate
9) Henry Q
10) Angel of Empire
11) Sun Thunder
12) Slip Mahoney
13) Geaux Rocket Ride
14) Rocket Can
15) Shopper's Revenge
16) Two Phil's
17) Red Route One
18) Reincarnate
19) Wadsworth
20) Scoobie Quando

I think one or both of the last two will qualify through the Jeff Ruby, or Congruent, who is my #21.  I try to imagine the most likely to get to the Dance as I curate this list.  I know Winter is skeptical of AK, but he is the most visually impressive to me, and has been working out under Yak, so I imagine him winning or coming in 2nd in the SA Derby.  Henry Q popped up on my top 10, as he won by a mile in last, and should be pointing to the Sunland Derby to get points.  Love to see Mendelssohns March enter and hit the board in the Wood or BG, but he's a real longshot.

All on my list are on Circa, except Wadsworth, though very few at a bargain by this point.  Slip is still 90-1, and for the imaginative (like me and Winter), Scoobie is still 250-1 :)

Well, I lose my #2 AK, so Congruent moves up into the top 20!

princeofdoc said...

I know Winter is skeptical of AK, but he is the most visually impressive

I was only skeptical because derby campaigns can't have hiccups w/out being worrisome.   

Writing this from memory but it was 16 days before he seemed able to do a 3F work after the Southwest Stakes (hardly a taxing race since it's a short route and was run against mostly other maiden types) and then something like 19 additional days before he did another work after that 3F one. 

The way he was being handled seemed rather....... odd.    Now we know for sure there were "problems" . 
 

Trainers will sometimes represent things as being more miniscule than they are.   Then you have the honest ones who want their horse to be 100%, like McGaughey did when he said General Jim might be dealing with a small setback (fever)   and I knew 2 days before that race that he would be scratched.   A slight fever.   You don't take chances with young (expensive) horses on the TC trail and run them in Graded Stakes races, unless they are 100%.    Nobody respectable does that.   So, I'm playing a contest pick with a team, and yet some insisted on using him as a pick.  I said "he's going to scratch, most likely"..   And, he did.   So their pick didn't count.    You can just see some of these things coming before they happen. 

ANY kind of setback puts my red flags up.  Horse can't miss works or have illnesses while on the TC trail unless they are very minor.   Because not every horse is a true champion like Big Brown was, running a campaign on 1/4 of a hoof.   

Or Smarty Jones, who by the way, his legs were SHOT TO HECK after those 6 stakes races he ran thru The Belmont.   It was common knowledge, he couldn't train,  let alone race again, due to all those races he ran during his TC campaign.  Personally this pains my heart. There's no doubt that he had pain after that and all thru his stud career.  

I still don't have a number one yet. I haven't seen anybody that looks like

they could be a top prospect beyond 9 furlongs, somebody needs to jump up

because the cream isn't coming to the top. Ill be looking for a Lasix free, With at least

one Stamina Chef within 5 generations, With a past Derby nick, strong tail female family

Non Nor Dancer/ Bold Ruler and Bold Ruler/ Nor dancer nick they don't work good for the derby

like Apollo curse, it could happen, Rasmussen factor would be nice, Strong Female 8 generation foundation

Strong Historical Performance Guidelines I Use. Many are going heavy on a Tapit Sire, since he Hasn't

Won The derby, he's a Bold Ruler Sire line if you find Northern Dancer in the BMS line look at other Tapits

without that low percentage ND in it. In fact there isn't hardly any Derby Winners no matter the nick

that have  both Something Royal 2s Dam of Secretariat and Natalma 2d Dam of Northern Dancer.

In there 8 generation female linebreeding foundation. Its ok if one of them is listed in there 8 gen female linebreeding  chart.

rambling that's enough.

You're the best ramblin' man on the site!  We love it!

Well if they don't keep dropping like flies. 

Arabian Knight and $3.2 million Hejazi off the trail and back to Baffert.   
Pletcher's Litigate off the trail.  
Mott's Arthur's Ride off the trail.