Last time I looked at him as opposed to when he first arrived, he didn't look too good, like not himself, kinda under the weather.

Then I find out he missed a work on May 2nd.   

Now I hear he was a no-show on the track today.  5/03.  

It could be just a mild "whatever", we all have those days, but I'm a little worried.  
 

He was out on the chute for an hour exercising today:

http://www.horse-races.net/library/derby23-wednesday.htm

and galloped 1 mile on Tuesday:

http://www.horse-races.net/library/derby23-tuesday.htm

Good.  They would scratch if they felt he was less than 100%.  

That and (as they do at the BC and any other major race) the track's and state's vets are all over the place watching every horse.   If they see something they don't like they have the power to unilaterally scratch the horse (just as they do in the paddock and behind the gate for every race).  CD probably brings in extra vets just for this week.    Continuar hung out in the chute for an hour -- so every vet in that area had a good look at him.  

All that said, if he skips scheduled gallops/works that can also be a bad sign (for betting purposes), but not bad enough to call for a vet scratch.  

TexSquared said:

All that said, if he skips scheduled gallops/works that can also be a bad sign (for betting purposes), but not bad enough to call for a vet scratch.

100%.   I will play him across the board if he enters the gate because I'm half [some would say completely] crazy.  Just a flyer.  That's why I say half, not all, crazy.  

TexSquared said...

if he skips scheduled gallops/works that can also be a bad sign (for betting purposes), but not bad enough to call for a vet scratch. 

We are too hung up on timed works.  Just because that's what we do "here".   

I prefer seeing horses do nice long gallops daily. 

(Of course, that would deprive Watchmaker from reading numbers off his clipboard perhaps. ) 

I've liked him as one of my "stamina horses" since he got off the trailer, so no need to change my tune now.   I went thru all the sires' histories as well.  Not going to be wagering on horses who have no history of progeny getting 10F, and I feel comfortable knowing Yahagi isn't a cheater, or making his horses into drug addicts.    Unfortunately I've not warmed up to Derma Sotogake but felt that way before he got here, as that trip he got at UAE is probably not repeatable in the KY Derby calvary charge, etc.  
 

Sotogake’s last three races had fields of 13, 13, and 14 horses and he won two of them.  He probably has more experience with large fields than any of them.  With his draw they should be able to settle in behind the first flight breaking from the inside and steer of most of the chaos.  He doesn’t usually go the front like he did in Dubai also, but no one else wanted it.  He usually tracks the leader.  With Rocket Can next to him there’s a chance they’ll burn it up to see who gets to the turn first but they’ve been schooling him and Lemaire presumably learned some things last year.

Soto AMs look like he wants to boss the reins and jockey early in 19 colt traffic 

Dale Romans sounds confident 1 or 2 are going to scratch so Cyclone Mischief can draw in...

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/268356/romans-confident-cyclone-mischief-will-make-derby-field