6 days from now at Longchamp on Sunday.  Ground has been soft but supposed to dry out if it doesn't rain much again so for now call it soft-to-good or better.  Will have to watch the weather. 

Field of 16 right now, O'Brien has supplemented Continuous into the race.  So he will have that one as well as Emily Dickinson in the race.   I'm not intimately familiar with all the trainers and don't see jockey assignments yet. 

Ace Impact and Hukum are also in this race.   And for those of you who liked Westover, he's in here, too. 
Stoute has Bay Bridge; Fabre has Place Du Carrousel (who I really like); Japanese trainer Tomohito Ozeki has Through Seven Seas. 

Here's the field for now:
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/211/longchamp/2023-10-01/841224

Though Seven Seas is sitting on a very big effort.  I love her in here.  For the wiiinnnn.  I saw her galloping at Chantilly a few days ago and wow.  The picture of health and equine happiness.

Her last was a tough 2nd to Equinox, as you know.  The extra furlong will be to her liking.  

The Arc is a race I love every year.  

Yes, that is pretty impressive.  

The field overall, is pretty impressive.  I don't know if it is a race I would attempt to wager, and not more than an win and exacta if I did.  

I can't wait to watch it though 

Did a quick early drive by on the field. 

Continuous being supplemented, and out of Heart's Cry from Japan, I have to take anything owned by Magnier seriously.  

Reason I liked Place du Carrousel because I think Lope de Vega is an interesting sire, and Fabre has won this race so many times.   

Longshot I like is Simca Mille, a smaller breeder in France, who keep many of theirs to race and seems to have a lot of class scattered thruout the pedigree .  (see Sanjita, etc. )  

Others like Feed the Flame have a win over the course at Longchamp. Free Wind will probably be Dettori's last ride in Paris forever.  

And of course, Hukum, who is Baaeed's half bro and who I picked here to win King George at Ascot in July.   Can't discount this one, but he's 6 years old now, but he's also beat Desert Crown in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes.......He almost didn't have a career due to a hairline fracture in back leg.....and then he pulled off some amazing work.   I liked him at Royal Ascot earlier in the year before the King George Queen Elizabeth, so that is why I stuck with him instead of Pyledriver and Westover for that race.   But Westover could get him in this race!   I usually don't bet my Win picks back in big races. But he can run on all kinds of ground. 

Keep in mind if for some reason he doesn't run in the Arc he could run in the BC Turf.  I doubt he will bother coming here for that though he would add some pizzazz.   They usually send their lesser strings here IMHO. 

 

Thanks for the rundown. WT.  These are such wonderful turfers and this is a very tough race to handicap and correctly bet.  

I intend to play a win bet only and only one bet.  Just to be in it and because I have been waiting since Through Seven Seas was announced for this Arc, to bet her, after that stunning effort in her last.  Not even handicapping the field.  I know many of these horses and anyone of the ones you mentioned could win it.

The only way I stay out is if Through Seven Seas is lower than 20/1.  The higher the better, obviously. 20/1 would be wonderful if she can pull it off.  30/1 would be better.  

Hukum is a full brother to Baaeed.Although he is a six year old he doesn’t have many miles on the clock but the draw didn’t do him any favors.I will try to beat the favorite as he has never raced this far and can be a bit keen at times.I will probably have a win bet on Westover as his body of work is consistent.Underneath,I will use Through Seven Seas,Bay Bridge and Hukum.

SameSteve G said...

The only way I stay out is if Through Seven Seas is lower than 20/1

I don't think she will stay that high. 

 

If you didn't see it on X (twitter) here is your horse's final work (scott is the Racing Post France correspondent):
https://twitter.com/seenthestars/status/1706925965043994680/video/1
https://twitter.com/hashtag/ThroughSevenSeas?src=hashtag_click

Jockey assignments are up now on the site:
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/211/longchamp/2023-10-01/841224

I refuse to read any "analyses" by talking heads. I'm just going to find 4 horses I like

Yes, I saw that.  Yesterday at the oddschecker site Through Seven Seas was between 20 and 30 to 1.  16/1 now and I'm pretty sure that due to LeMaire.  LOL

I hope she goes up, obviously.  If she is 15/1 before post I might be tempted.  Hahaha

She has a lot to overcome, IMO.  If she wins without me, at a lower price, so be it.

I thought it was humorous that Bloodhorse was touting how wonderful it is that Equibase is finally including horses from France, etc. in their database "because racing is international" ....but if you take a peek, there are no charts at all, except if the horse raced in North American races.