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Beginning of Feb. top 20   Triple Crown

Started 2/2/17 by princeofdoc; 3799 views.
In reply toRe: msg 8
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

2/16/17

Updated list, now ordered by preference:

Derby:

1) Local Hero

2) Mastery

3) McCraken

4) Classic Empire

5) Tapwrit

6) Uncontested

7) Al Areeb

8) Malagacy

9) Battalion Runner

10) Beasley

Oaks:

1) Unique Bella(No. 1 overall)

2) Shane's Girlfriend

3) Jenda's Agenda

4) Abel Tasman

5) Delitefull Lady

6) It Tiz Well

7) Sircat Sally

8) Delphinia

9) Karula

10) Spanish Harlem

  • Edited February 17, 2017 5:00 pm  by  RAESFAN
In reply toRe: msg 15
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

2/16/17

Lookin at Lee already putting in 6 fl works @ Fair Grounds for trainer Steve and this owner's(Santana)most ambitious stead.

Jockey over past years and this year to start is most under the radar soil hit-man for top earnings. Ricardo Santana Jr. And this pilot is not aboard many big purse all the time mounts.

As of today the Delta horse bench mark for measurement purposes only of Derby hopefuls positioning for points. For the time being and must see his opener. (d)

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

2/16/17

The Risen Star is shaping up to be the best prep of the season so far, in my opinion. At least four stakes winners that I know of; Mo Town, Guest Suite, So Conflated, and Cool Arrow. Nevertheless, I will be looking for the "Local Hero" to upset things. In his last race he looked as talented as anything I've seen short of that grey filly out west.

11th (5:00) Risen Star S. (G2) 2/25/17

1 1/16 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $400,000

1 Girvin Hernandez B J Jr 116 L
2 Untrapped Santana R Jr 116 L
3 Local Hero Geroux F 116 L
4 Arklow Bridgmohan S X 116 L
5 Shareholder Value Murrill M 116 L
6 Guest Suite Albarado R J 120 L
7 U S Officer Valdivia J Jr 116 L
8 Cool Arrow Saez G 120 L
9 Mo Town Velazquez J R 122 L
10 Takeoff Leparoux J R 116 L
11 Sorry Erik Desormeaux K J 116 L
12 Horse Fly Mena M 116 L
13 It's Your Nickel Graham J 116 L
14 So Conflated Gutierrez Mario 120 L

Northof64

From: Northof64

2/17/17

Always respect your posts just a bit surprised you still have Fact Finding in your top 5.  To me he looked like 8f was his max, so to get a good finish at10f in May would be incredible.

North 

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

2/17/17

Thanks for the heads up. That was actually an oversight. I meant to replace him with Beasley.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

2/18/17

I am willing to give Shane's Girlfriend another shot. I believe the race against Bella was one turn, and she seems to be at her best around two turns as evidenced by her race at Delta Downs. Getting away from UB, and back at two turns, I think we will see a much better performance.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

2/18/17

I too am anxious to see your pick Local Hero in this race.  To be honest, I was shocked to see him as your #1 pick at this point for Derby hopefuls....3 maiden races only, the two he lost, the winner did nothing after, and the one he won, he was certainly impressive, but again, it was only against maidens less than a month ago.  I would rather see him not jump conditions.....perhaps find an Alw race, and, if he performs well, go into a points race end of March, beginning of April.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

2/18/17

I may be making the same mistake I made last year with the ill-fated Stradivari. I sometimes get carried away with some lightly experienced horses. The same visual stimuli I use to bring young horses to this site before they hit everyone's radar, sometimes betrays me, as I perhaps on occasion see more than what's there. I believe I saw something special in that maiden race, so I am willing to forgive the earlier races. Some horses take huge steps forward due to certain conditions. Local Hero may simply have relished the move to two turns. I am often averse to picking the "chalk" when selecting my Derby horse, so he may be a bit of a "wise raesfan" selection too.

As for Hollow Point and Our Stormin Norman, they ran excellent races, earning good numbers in both of Local Hero's losses. They each raced once since, and lost; one moving up in class at the allowance level, the other in the Delta Downs Jackpot. Both stretched out to two turns and seemed to tire late. maybe LH lost to two sprinters, on whom the book is certainly still out.

We will see next Saturday, and while I am looking for good progression on his part, he doesn't have to actually win. I realize that he is giving up considerable experience to several in the race, but I suspect Asmussen is not as likely as Pletcher to push the envelope on an unprepared youngster. Going 8.5f is little different that 9.5f followed by 12f. I don't think too much is being asked of him. He had two races as a juvy, and one as a soph. His foundation is okay.

  • Edited February 18, 2017 1:01 pm  by  RAESFAN
KonaNative

From: KonaNative

2/18/17

#14 So Conflated looks interesting to me. The post position is the kiss of death so I'm more interested in how he handles traffic.

  • Edited February 18, 2017 12:59 pm  by  KonaNative
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

2/19/17

Well Jenda's Agenda has earned the right to remain in my top ten on the filly side. She stretched out around two turns to easily hold Stonetacular, another nice filly, at bay. She covered the mile and 70yds in 1:43 2/5, well in hand. After a soft first quarter, the race was over. I won't get too excited until I see her do it while getting early pressure. She is by Proud Citizen, out of a Menifee mare. We'll see how Shane's Grilfriend does next weekend against the likes of Valadorna and Farrell.

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