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Southwest Stakes G3 - Oaklawn R9 - MON   Triple Crown

Started 2/19/17 by Wintertrian; 1480 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

2/19/17

Feb 20th  1-1/16th

1 Cool Arrow [12/1] 

2 Silver Dust [10/1] 
3 Uncontested [5/2] 
4 Lookin At Lee [8/1] 
5 Rowdy the Warrior [20/1] 
6 Cu Rahy [50/1] 
7 Warrior's Club [12/1] 
8 Petrov [5/1] 
9 Dilettante [15/1] 
10 Hence [20/1] 
11 One Liner [7/2] 
12 P C Cowboy [30/1] 
13 Chief Know It All [12/1] 

 

No Baffert this year.  He usually shows up for this one.  Will be interesting to see if he enters Rebel or Ark Derby
 

In reply toRe: msg 1
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

2/19/17

Am not familiar with Pletcher entry here.  Can anyone help?

13 entries.  Dunno about scratches yet. 

So far, I've thrown out over 1/2 the field by looking at horses from this region who I've personally seen racing or working out....only ones I like are:

Petrov
Hence
Rowdy the Warrior
Looking at Lee
Chief Know It A
ll

Uncontested - still only a maybe for me.  Seems like he is not a long distance type KY Derby horse to me

Of note:  Asmussen only won this race in 2014 and then way back in 2002........feast or famine for him considering how many horses he enters at OP in general..........BUT I give one of his, Hence and Lookin at Lee a good shot here and he has good riders aboard. 

Help me out on the Pletcher entry.......

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

2/19/17

One Liner won his debut all the way back in July where he defeated Royal Copy, who later was second by a neck in the Hopeful to Practical Joke. I don't know why he has been off so long, but he didn't return until late January with a stylish win in an AOC at GP. He will be facing a pretty good field here, and stepping up from 6f, he will have his work cut out for him. He is by Into Mischief, out of a Cherokee Run mare.

  • Edited February 19, 2017 1:48 pm  by  RAESFAN
Gerh

From: Gerh

2/19/17

I like Hence in here but if the rains come Uncontested is a must use

KonaNative

From: KonaNative

2/19/17

8-1 on Looking At Lee is a gift 

In reply toRe: msg 4
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

2/19/17

I hope Hence runs straight this time. What he did last time could have been a disaster!

Gerh

From: Gerh

2/19/17

It was weird.It looked like something spooked him.It was in the slop as well

In reply toRe: msg 7
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

2/19/17

cool arrow is out. not coming

In reply toRe: msg 8
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

2/20/17

I've wagered CU Rahy 2x now and he has just disappointed me.  Hope he doesn't jump up here, because I will be p'oed.  :)  Gorgeous breeding but he doesn't seem to be much of a racehorse.  Trainer keeps entering him, IMHO, over his head.  

Will have to see just how "wet" it is tomorrow.   Pletcher horse One Liner has no works over OP surface.

Silver Dust from the hot Don Alberto breeder hasn't raced in a while, but he has been dilligently working at Oaklawn track since the end of December and is a good, possible exotics horse.  

"Late kick"  has been dangerous at OP lately, ie Rowdy the Warrior (and also One Liner but he has never run a route so not using in top part....). 

(Most of these are actually pretty "cheap" horses, IMHO).   Probably tossing both Lukas runners, PC Cowboy (been claimed too many times in short period!), CU Rahy (needs to go to a bush track).  

Just to give you an idea of the trainer/jockey stuff at OP so far, here it is from my notes this season:

Catalano, Asmussen, Moquett, Cox  HOT
Santana, Ramon V, Rocco,  HOT
Ortiz HOT (but in sprints)

jockeys hot at other tracks:  Geroux, Lanerie

von hemel and L. Quinonez have both been "cold" so far

 

Its a longshot but I really like Calumet Farm's Hence.   He appears to love Oaklawn, and broke his maiden on wet track here, (uncontested is not only horse who can run in wet) --- and the horse he beat won at OP next out. 

Most interesting is Silver Dust.  Horse may surprise. (I am putting a win/place/show on this one separately.) Put in 2nd/3rd w/Chief KNow it All

Head scratcher:  Petrov.  There is no way to know if he did so badly last time because of WET track.  Track will most likely be wet again.  But there is no way to know if that is why he did poorly last time.  

Rowdy the Warrior with his late kick will be in superfecta (3rd/4th?) I think, he will pick 'em off in the stretch.  

 

I don't think I can play Uncontested more than 3rd.  Will work on my complete trifecta in the a.m. This is a tough race

In reply toRe: msg 9
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

2/20/17

keeping in mind i am TERRIBLE at prep races/big stakes.

The usual everyday races with questionable horses, I do great at OP, on Thurs, Fridays.  Never play Saturdays since I am really bad at the big races.  

And the stakes usually end up with chalk winning.........so .......my picks are probably not for everyone  LOL

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