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Starting this early with probables. 8.5F
Pletcher is shipping Malagacy.
Untrapped is shipping to Oaklawn, where Lookin at Lee already is stabled.
Other probables are Royal Mo, American Anthem, Silver Dust and Petrov.
sorry meant to put this under General Discussions, not sure how to move it. :(
I moved it for you but it could have stayed in Triple Crown since it is a TC prep.
Post positiion draw:
PP HORSE JOCKEY
1 Silver Bullion R. Vazquez
2 Uncontested C. Hill
3 Sonneteer R. Eramia
4 Petrov J. Ortiz
5 Untrapped I. Ortiz, Jr.
6 Malagacy J. Castellano
7 American Anthem M. Smith
8 Silver Dust C. Lanerie
9 Appalachian Gem G. Stevens
10 Royal Mo V. Espinoza
11 Lookin At Lee R. Santana, Jr
This is often a prep for the ARK Derby. Not predictive of much, though since 2010 baffert wins.
You almost have to sentimentally root for Appalachian Gem, 80 year old HOF trainer who hasn't won a stakes since 1995, with a horse fresh from a maiden win, ridden by a older jockey fresh from hip replacement surgery. LOL
I hope Petrov, Royal Mo, and Silver Dust do well here. Esp. Petrov, he has a nice stalk n' rally style. Lookin at Lee caught out wide again but both he and Silver Dust tend to run toward back anyway.
Haven't formally capped it yet.
of note (or not!) at the draw: "Two trainers with probable Rebel starters appeared.
Of those, only Randy Morse remained for the draw. He
said he was relatively indifferent which post was assigned his trainee, Silver
Dust, who finished fourth in Oaklawn’s Southwest Stakes on Feb. 20
Also of note, Sherriffs is HERE for the race.
I like Royal Mo. I hope he runs a good race. He's very well put together.
Friday / March 18th ~ Oaklawn race #4 FTS Big Bear Ryan - very high SIRe%age FTStarter winners. Use in exotics in 12 horse field. (d)
And a Texas bred.... Owner/breeder also raced the sire. Joe K Davis.
I'm praying Lookin At Lee doesn't show all his stuff in this one. Just garner some more points. Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. lost his 2016 Belmont Stakes winner - Creator* to another jockey in this race Irad Ortiz Jr.
Lee lurks and looms from outside stall, goes to rail and should profit and learn from the predictable early speed (if dry track). I like that he is not on the top 20 Kentucky Derby watch on DRF, not that it is top secret sauce recipe.
*connections bought in and yes realistically went with Irad Jr who knows the Big Sandy mile and a half oval, each bit of sand on a first name basis.
Santana went on to the 2016 Spa summer meet and faced NYRA jocks with some KO punches. " None injuries me with impunity and takes my G1 Third Jewel Win purse check."
He won the mile grass races before and after Songbird G1 Oaks for a nearly $2,000 Pick 3. With the lady bird cold play in the middle.
I personally was not thrilled with Royal Mo's stretch run in the Lewis. Shortened his stride quite obviously in that final 1/16th. Maybe that's why he's been working 6f.
If I can still wistfully back Arklow after the Risen Star, I have to like Untrapped. Strange that he's coming back so soon. He's two bad trips away from sweeping the preps in LA. He might get the first shot at the pacesetters.
I hope Lookin at Lee does something, too, and Untrapped is also a good pick.
Dogs thanks for the heads up on big bear ryan, he starts at 8-1 but my sheet has him running next to last, being a FTS, so his odds will go way up by post time....think I will throw a little $$ at him.
Rebel can go any way.
Check out the races from today, lots of $20-$48 winners, lowest winning payout today was $7.40 I think. The favorites were NOT coming in. But that is somewhat typical of Oaklawn, esp. on weekdays.
Lots of the locals still seem to like Uncontested.