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The longest three weeks   Triple Crown

Started Apr-16 by Oldbettowin; 7878 views.
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Apr-16

Are these next three.  I'll pass the time until the post draw by looking at the past performances about 5 times a day then get out the calculator for some serious work after the draw lol.  I went thru some of my usual voodoo and surprised myself when Hence came out on top, at least for now.  My dirty Derby dozen:

Hence

Classic Empire

Thunder Snow

Gormley

Gunnevera

Irish War Cry

Lookin at Lee

Patch

Girvin

Practical Joke

Always Dreaming

Sonneteer

 

 

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Apr-16

Nice.

This year there are no 4-in-a-row winners. Closest is Always Dreaming, Thunder Snow, and Fast and Accurate. Well, "3" is not "4", so I may have to look elsewhere.

Right now I am going with "visual" - Irish War Cry (top choice, the only NJ bred so I am being a homer here), Conquest Mo Money, Hence, and Lookin At Lee. I will probably throw in an old angle that seemed to trend for a while in the mid-2000s - third start off the layoff. Those who qualify are Gormley, Thunder Snow, Practical Joke, and Fast and Accurate.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Apr-17

I'm only thinking about exactas this year & one nice stand alone win bet.

McCraken had a beautiful progression at Churchill as a two year old.  Won the Tampa race against the grain.  4 in a row.

He was not intended for the BG.  If he had won, his bandwagon would look like a crowded phone booth (remember those?)

I still like him as a serious contender for the win going back to a favored surface, with the BG under his belt as a proper prep.  He could be the overlay I seek for a win bet.  Hopefully, he's not the wise guy horse.  :)

Irish War Cry has one inexplicable stinker on his resume.  If he shows up with his A game, he could win  as a projected underlay.

Always Dreaming looks like the real deal & an underlay.

Those three, unless something radical happens, are shaping up as my keys.

I think other very useful ones are Hence, Gunnevera, Thunder Snow, Classic Empire, Gormley (I wish Royal Mo could get in)   That's 8 horses over all.    The others who are getting, as they say, love...I can't see as contenders for the top two spots.  Heck, they all could qualify for 3rd the way this year has shaped up.

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Apr-17

I've only able to narrow it down to 6 horse for the win at this point, the first 6 I listed.  

fivestaryak

From: fivestaryak

Apr-17

I like your eight.  I'd bench Gormley should Conquest Mo Money ante up.  Bottom of the tri and super is open for many of them.  No small show bet on Irap?...he looks and runs like American Lion--he'd shorten up the lines at the collect window.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Apr-17

Plenty of time, my friend.  I have nothing written in stone.

In reply toRe: msg 5
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Apr-17

Over the last five years only two out of the 20 horses in the Super had lost ground in their last prep before the derby, Mohaymen last year and Golden Soul in 2013.  Golden Soul is the only one that lost ground and had never posted an rpr of at least 116 prior to the derby.

116 Nyquist +3/4

122 Exaggerator +1 3/4

112 Gun Runner +2

116 Mohaymen <4 3/4>

 

124 American Pharoah +2 1/2

118 Firing Line +6 1/4

118 Dortmund +1/4

112 Frosted +2 1/2

 

124 California Chrome +1/4

105 Commanding Curve +2 1/2

116 Danza +3 1/4

118 Wicked Strong +5 1/2

 

120 Orb +3 3/4

104 Golden Soul <1 3/4>

114 Revolutionary -even-

113 Normandy Invasion +2 1/4

 

116 I'll Have Another +1/2

126 Bodemeister +6 1/2

118 Dullahan +5 1/4

112 Went the Day Well +3

 

 

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Apr-17

Insofar as I find Hence & Classic Empire useful, then it does follow I should find Mo Money useful.  I can always make my "8" a "9" since I'm playing exactas.   I'm going to take all those I wheel for 2nd & do a reverse wheel with those 5 or 6 on top of my keys as a hedge, anyway.

Irap to show, baby!   That would be like a triple bank shot off the hood of the car & into the hoop.  :)

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Apr-17

What scares me about Hence is that his Sunland race was so much better than anything he'd ever done before.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Apr-17

I know what you mean.  Same thing could be said for Always Dreaming.  If I remember correctly his BSF jumped 26 points in the Florida Derby.

There's always knocks.   Classic Empire could bounce off the Ark as easily as move forward.  He's a talent play.  Thunder Snow, if he comes, has to face the ship & quarantine.  Irish War Cry could throw another clunker.  Gunnevera could come in too light & get bounced around.  Etc., etc.

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