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I'll use this and make adjustments up or down after the draw.
Royal Mo (AE)
Lookin at Lee
Fast and Accurate
I have ten. My keys: IWC, McC, Gorm
My wheels: CE, TS, Gunny, Hence, LAL, Girvin, Royal Mo (hope he gets in) If not, I'll take my pick after the draw & might use a dart for it.
I may shuffle these after the draw, as well. I'll also flip 'em, reverse wheel style. But I will have these 10 horses covered in exacta combos.
Do you think any of your keys or wheels will go off at or below 9/2, or for that matter, any of them? I'm leaning no.
As of May 1st:
Win: Girvin/Classic Empire/McCraken/Always Dreaming
Rest: Gunnevera/Sonneteer/Irish War Cry/Tapwrit
Good question. I think of my ten, CE might be shading there on the real tote. No one else of the whole crew except AD will be, IMO.
I suppose those two could go lower & it may be my bias not to think anyone is better than 5-1 in this field which colors my previous comment.
Looking at Lee
Irap or PJ
Thanks...just interested in what some of the smart money thinks. Putting aside favs and the relative competitiveness of one or two runners against their field/crop, 9/2 has been a good number since the Friesan Fire debacle. Since we are done with stats, I'll leave that one alone, the smart money has at least found a solid key; obvious or media access driven, the hordes are willing to buy into one or a couple.
Since a total odds bet(s) is in question, I usually go with larger straight tickets.
When it comes to the Derby, I work odds groupings, unlike the everyday race when following a meet where I have enough ability to fine line the low odds range & make money in that environment.
I cannot do that in the Derby because I'm simply not that good. I knew that many moons ago. I prefer not to get pounded by an 800 lb. gorilla. They can turn you upside down by the ankles so easy...
So, for me, CE, AD, IWC are in an odds grouping of value, etc, etc, down the line. I cannot fine line beyond those groupings in what I would accept as an accurate fashion. So, I don't try. I've failed enough to know.