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So far, not a whole lot of discussion on this topic. When Finster was here it seemed pace dominated the conversation during the Derby week.
I used to think we would see a pretty lively pace this year (22+/46/110) but with the defections of Malagacy and Battallion Runner, I'm not so sure.
Post positions will probably play a key role (like if Always Dreaming/IWC draw inside).
What do you think?
I still think a fast pace. Fast and accurate owner already said he's going to be hard ridden out of the gate and get the lead at all cost. He's going to gun it. State of honor, Icrap, and the entire Santa Anita continent. All fast. Throw in IWC AND I SEE MELTDOWN.
Fast and accurate owner already said he's going to be hard ridden out of the gate and get the lead at all cost. He's going to gun it.
So this idiot decided to supplement his horse into the Derby just to be a rabbit for others? No way FnA wires this field. Must be nice to have so much money you don't know what to do with it...
Yep, that's exactly what he said.....hard ridden from the gate. Right to the front and see how far he can go. He said that's his only chance. Even though it's no chance.
And he actually sold a share of the horse to Bode mIller, the skier, and that's the money he used to supplement. Not even his own.
I was looking at the Oaks, seeing some in there is strange compare to ones ran same day as some colts. Looks to be a lot of speed in there.
I miss Walt here...a very good dude & sharp.
I figure you know this but there's a fast pace & then there's a contentious fast pace. If the pace is on the brisk side early (let's say sub :23 - sub :47) but it is orderly it will not take the same toll as the same pace which is contentious. Derbies are usually quite contentious early because of the eagerness to secure good position around the clubhouse turn which is the first real opportunity to lose lots of ground. Even post 20 with an angled run outside doesn't lose as much as people think breaking that wide on the straight to the first turn.
I also agree with you that it's better to wait for after the draw to really crank down on projected pace.
Where is Walt? This is his realm of expertise.
SameSteve G said:
Even post 20 with an angled run outside doesn't lose as much as people think breaking that wide on the straight to the first turn.
It's such a long way from the gate to the turn that post 20 (or any other wide post) doesn't matter. Starting with Big Brown in 2008 the winning posts were 20, 8, 4, 16, 19, 16, 5, 15, and 13. So in 9 Derbies 6 winners drew wide posts.
Curiously 14 hasn't won in a long time so maybe what they say about the gap between the main and aux gates is true. Posts 9, 12, 14, and 17 have not won in at least 41 years! 17 is the worst with 0 wins, 1 second, 0 thirds, and 1 fourth in that stretch. You want to toss a horse from all places in your super based on post alone, toss whatever horse drew 17.
You know, I keep seeing people say Hansen said this (or something close to it) but I can't find anything with actual quotation marks. Can you post the quote? And is there a possibility there was some gamesmanship going on? F&A is probably going to be on the front regardless of what his owner says or thinks; maybe he was trying to scare back the competition a bit?