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Thoughts on AD?   General Discussions

Started 5/5/17 by bestgtor22; 8067 views.

From: bestgtor22


Curious what others think about him. I am almost tempted to toss him despite that big run in the FL Derby but keep thinking there may be a little chance he is a freak. What really has me wondering is that 1 1/8 mile race he had prior to the FL Derby where he basically just galloped around the track with fractions of 51 and 1:16. He wasn't really pressed to go faster that race and I heard the track was carrying speed really good on FL Derby day resulting in great times besides his own. I also think he may have not built a good foundation for the Derby with his racing history prior to the FL Derby. I hear that trainer has a rep for peaking horses in their final prep before the Derby and then coming up short.




Beware of the "freak" label. Paradise Woods was labeled as such too. Even really good horses can be compromised. He is a nice horse, but half of the  people think he is jumping out of his skin, ready to run huge, and half think he was using entirely too much energy in his works.


From: Gerh


For me there is too much risk for too little reward.I like to see horses showing energy(Hence,Irish War Cry McCrackan,Sonn) but this guy is over the top.Working in draw reins is fine, but what happens when they come off.Could be a flight risk



I'd love to toss him, but his Florida Derby was a monster effort, and if he runs back to it, he wins by 3+. His antics this week were worrisome and the bottom side of his pedigree is a bit suspect. Pletcher's horses tend to be as durable as porcelain, so that is also a problem.

However, he should be in a great spot if he breaks well and is the likely leader at the mile pole.


From: Oldbettowin


After I scored them on my criteria he came out so far down the list I didn't have to worry about dropping him, he dropped himself.  If he beats me oh well.


From: ShaddyisBack


If it were a NORMAL race, 10 horse, a month off and later in the year, he would be a good pick. In this race, as much of a toss as a winner. I started to put up a list of those types over the years, so so many 4 / 5 career races, fast, breeding, bellamy road horses... Got burned too many times in this race...

Good luck to everybody... Got a live P3 and Double.. happy about that...


From: sovereign1


Reminds me of Verrazzano


From: bestgtor22


Kind of what I am thinking also.


From: twoshots


Agree the pace setup looks very favorable for AD. But I didn't use him anyway


From: smartyslew


he came up on top on my 1/8 pole chart, 

that being said its a best case scenario for each horse imo

i bet thunder snow for the win, btw his data was n/a on that chart.

i have always dreaming in one of my exotic bets, 

very talented, not knowing what we will get.