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Belmont Gap Analysis -- Morning Line 2/1's a study   Handicapping

Started May-10 by nowyouknow; 1071 views.
nowyouknow

From: nowyouknow

May-10


I have been starting to look at the gaps between wins for certain Morning Line Favorites and came across the 2/1 Morning Lines on the Dirt at Belmont towards the end of the season last year

The Morning Line 2/1's were 0 for their last 12 attempts on the Dirt at Belmont since October 22nd 2016


The streak was at 12 races in a row with no wins


Fast forward to this year and it is entirely different the Morning Line 2/1's have been profitable since opening day at Belmont but back to back wins have been elusive



As of now, you are getting a 35% return per $2 win wager and 11 of 13 have finished no worse than 2nd

In looking at the pattern it seems for right now that they win almost every other race


I will continue to look at this phenomenon until the win percentage goes down to 30% until then let's see how long the trend continues on the Dirt at Belmont!!!

Go to the drop downs under this label and get today's Belmont entries your way

            Configure Today’s Belmont Entries by Trainer Available Race Days by 9:30am EST

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/Horse_Cents/

Get Belmont Trainer Results Your Way

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/Horse_Cents/?page_id=1138

In reply toRe: msg 1
nowyouknow

From: nowyouknow

May-11

Here are today's Morning Line 2/1's on the Dirt at Belmont 

1st race
#6 Street Heat

6th race
#6 Toga Challenger

If the pattern holds it looks like #6 Street Heat should lose and #6 Toga Challenger should win

However, we have not had back to back wins from the Morning Line 2/1's in this situation on the Dirt at Belmont so maybe #6 Street Heat has a chance!!!

Let's see if one of these can get the win today!!!

Two losses here would put the win percentage at exactly 40% so we would continue watching until a 3rd loss where we will abandon ship since that would put the win percentage at 33% and violate the 40% rule!!!

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

May-11

The Stan Lee System:

R1 - #4 Cookie Crisp

R5 - #12 Helmut Head

In reply toRe: msg 2
nowyouknow

From: nowyouknow

May-12

Well we got both right yesterday as both  #6 Street Heat and #6 Toga Challenger both won their respective races paying a combined $20.80 across the board 

If you played both to win you got $10 per $2 wager a 150% return on your money

We will continue with the trend until the win percentage drops close to 30%

Congratulations to those who saw the plays and were able to make a profit!!!

Go to the drop downs under this label and get today's Belmont entries your way

            Configure Today’s Belmont Entries by Trainer Available Race Days by 9:30am EST

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/Horse_Cents/

Get Belmont Trainer Results Your Way

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/Horse_Cents/?page_id=1138

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

May-12

What would be the stats if you bet only the 2/1's that occur in the first three races vs. betting them in the 4th race and beyond.

Would the type of race make a difference? (e.g. route vs  sprint, Alw vs Clm, MSW vs MC, dirt vs turf vs AW)

nowyouknow

From: nowyouknow

May-12

Hi Sovereign1

These stats were specifically for Morning Line 2/1's on the Dirt any race condition and any distance.

I should have specified that these stats were for the Dirt at Belmont for the Morning Line 2/1's

It is interesting that you brought up Maidens because since October 10th 2016 the Morning Line 2/1's have been winless on the Dirt going 0 for their last 8

I am paying particular attention to this one in the 3rd race at Belmont #2 Brooklyn Gerty as this race is a Maiden race I am hoping the streak gets broken with a win today!!!

I will be looking at these Morning Line 2/1's today on the Dirt at Belmont

1st race
#1 Formal Summation

3rd race
#2 Brooklyn Gerty

5th race
#1 No Hayne No Gayne

8th race
#2 Heckuvashot

Let's hope the Morning Line 2/1's can start a win streak in Maiden races after a winless 2016 since October 10th, for this situation on the Dirt!!!

Let's see what happens!!!

nowyouknow

From: nowyouknow

May-12

Hey Sovereign1

In answer to your question, if you had bet the Morning Line 2/1 at Belmont regardless of distance (sprint/route), surface (turf/dirt) or race condition (alw, maiden, etc.)  since opening day you would have made 33% on your money at a cost of $50 per $2 win wager

Interesting to note that 20 of 25 starts have been no worse than 2nd

Go to the drop downs under this label and get today's Belmont entries your way

            Configure Today’s Belmont Entries by Trainer Available Race Days by 9:30am EST

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/Horse_Cents/

Get Belmont Trainer Results Your Way

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/Horse_Cents/?page_id=1138

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

May-12

Thanks! And interesting..... With the kind of percentages that hit, it might be what I am looking for in a $200 Place bet.

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

May-12

Looks like it may do well in any Allowance race.

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

May-12

What is the winning percentage for male runners as opposed female runners?

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