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According to brisnet Hence had one of the highest early speed figures of Derby entrants. His early speed in the Sunland (according to Brisnet) was 108 (vs. AD's early speed in the Florida Derby was 93). Yet all of the discussions about Hence during the week was how he was a closer. Well I keyed Hence because I thought he would be near the front thus avoiding trouble. Well sure enough this was not the case - he was in last place at one point early in the race. So where was Hence's blazing early speed that was listed in the Brisnet past performances? I have not read anywhere that Hence had a bad start. Yes I have read he got bunched up early in the race; but, that was because he was so slow coming out of the gate. Was brisnet figures wrong?
I think it's safe to say that the conditions of the race, in total, overwhelmed form & speed and pace figures for Hence and many others.
Form & figures were done in by chaos.
AD ran his race with a great trip. LAL ran his with a dream trip. I suppose Battle Of Midway never far back, as well, if one expected him. Practical Joke got a halfway decent trip.
Read the chart. Bumped, bounced, bobbled, roughed, checked, steadied.
Very ugly race.
He was in the same position relative to the other horses in Sunland as he was KD. I don't think you can take two separate races and overlap them. Sunland had a hot early pace so he had a higher number than normal. I have also noticed that on lesser tracks, when the top horses come in, figures can tend to get a bit higher than normal as they are compared to horses normally running at the track.
BRIS E1/E2/LP wise, his Sunland Derby was nearly identical to Dullahan's performance in the Bluegrass. The fast pace brought up the E1/E2 for all of the horses, and Hence's middle move on the backstretch also spiked his numbers.
I also thought he'd be a little closer to the pace than he was, no chance from back there in those conditions.
Equibase chart start of the race: Poor. It just says poor, they usually indicate the horses who had it the worst. You can probably say the top 3 had the best breaks.
Brisnet figures did not take into account the quality of the race as to compared to the others. This horse showed little previously, and he managed to do well against a lower group. I handicapped him as going way up in class, so his performance did not surprise me at all. Yes, the Sunland Derby can bring in a competitive Derby entrant, but it rarely does.....
Hence never even got his stride going. The jockey told him to go a few times and he just wasn't leveling out. I think the trainer was right he just didn't like eating all that mud and never ran his race.
He has run one good race.....and that was in the Sunland Derby. His previous try against winners of caliber resulted in a poor effort, as did his Kentucky Derby. We can find excuses for those races, certainly....he didn't run his race, he didn't like the track, mud in his face, etc. Or he isn't of the caliber. I threw him out of the Derby, as I did Irap. Now we have a couple more running back today from that race. Hence again, along with CMM. And we have Hedge Fund going in the Barton.
If Hedge Fund goes well, I may give Hence and CMM a chance underneath. But if not, especially if True Timber beats them, I will throw them both out and use Cloud Computing. Right now I am thinking both AD and CE finish 5 lengths ahead of the others.
Do you think Multiplier is fools gold?
I can see the logic on Hence being a 1-hit wonder imo the same logic doesn't apply to CMM. CMM came back to prove his Sunland Derby was no fluke by running a big 2nd in Ark Derby to CE. He's been pointed to this race and I expect a huge ITM effort today from him.