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Brisnet gave Multiplier a 104 speed figure in the IllDerby. This is the highest brisnet speed figure of any of the Preakness contenders. I guess brisnet thought arrogate was running - who knows? Interestingly DRF speed number for same race did hold multiplier as the second coming - slightly average at best. So which one is right DRF or Brisnet? I'm confused on which to trust - however really starting to question Brisnet figures. Maybe they lost some key people with their recent changes. Help!
Clearly Brisnet overall speed numbers indicate that Multiplier and Hence are 2 of the faster horses in the Preakness where as DRF speed numbers do not hold this to be true. So one of these organization's speed numbers are full of crap (maybe both). Kinda hard to handicap a race with bogus numbers!
There doesn't appear to be any consistency in the figures for Multiplier's Illinois Derby run. Beyer, BRIS, Equibase, TimeformUS do not correlate according to the very reliable comparisons calculated by Dr. Roman.
The Beyer is at the low end of the spectrum & the BRIS fig is at the high end. EB, TR land in between.
3rd or 4th doesn't seem out of the question but the price must be very attractive. He is stepping way up & will have to outrun better horses in the late race stages.
Thanks for mentioning the other speed numbers. Good point about the class factor. Again thanks and GL!
I'm glad you brought it up. The big difference between the Beyer method in which a human performs a "projection" of the final time is that BRIS performs a computer-generated projection. Beyer claims a very experienced human massage is superior. BRIS claims a computer-generated massage is superior because it's more objective.
It's a commercial market so both entities tend to make out-sized claims for their product. "Yes, it can core a apple!" to quote Jackie Gleason's line in The Honeymooners. :)
There's also the matter of the accuracy of the track variant which, if miscalculated, will render a bad figure.
It's not an exact science by any means.
As a general rule, I think it's a good idea to stay within one method for consistency's sake. Unless, a big discrepancy turns up, like the one you found. Then, it pays to look into it.
SameSteve G said:
yep but still very unsettling. Amazing they could be so different in this case. You would think they would scan each other's numbers to see if they r telling the same overall story. Just a wild guess now on picking Preakness exotics. Keyed Hence in in Derby based on Brisnet - dumb on my part. Live and learn
Guess that is one of the finer points of handicapping- not only being able to read the numbers; but, knowing when they r suspect and then knowing what to do. Unfortunately I haven't reached that level.
I'll take Brisnet over Beyer everyday; they don't use feelings when they make their figures. I want the data and I will interpret as I see fit. All figures are just handicapping tools, so use judiciously.
My view of Hence is that his Sunland was a top three prep effort leading into the Derby. I don't regret including him in all of my Derby bets. He had a terrible trip himself and never had a chance to make a sustained move. Brisnet figures happened to agree with me, while Beyer did not.
Often, I will check the Brisnet Race Summary after a race where I missed, and they'll have the trifecta cold.
It's a good idea to watch replays & read charts to see how the figure was earned & apply pace figures, as well. You'll be able to make a better informed judgement that way.
I'm like Cubs. I prefer BRIS figures.
The ones I liked best, Steve Roman's Performance Figures, are no longer being made. His PF included a calculation for pace, were not massaged & his track variants were state of the art.