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Assuming the weather forecast holds and we're slated for a fast track, here are my thoughts for the Preakness Stakes. (See post edit note*** below.)
I invite anyone who's so inclined to share their proposed betting structure in this thread. You don't have to include $ amounts if you don't want to. My main goal here is to improve myself in the area of bet structure. I feel that my handicapping skill (deciding which horses to use and which to toss) is right where it should be at this point, but it's my wagering skill (taking those use/toss decisions and translating them into efficient tickets) that needs to catch up. That's why I appreciate seeing how some of you guys and gals set your tickets up.
My overall thoughts on this race are that CE, in his 3rd start off the layoff, has the best chance to upset AD. He is a trip handicapper's delight after the mugging he took in the Derby, and it really was a testament to how good a horse he is that he got up for 4th place. Admittedly, I see AD as the horse to beat, but a win bet on him would violate my betting philosophy due to his odds.
I think HEN completely threw in the towel early in the Derby and simply didn't run (unlike some others who actually did run, just not very well). So I'm completely tossing his "race" in Louisville and giving him a chance for 2nd/3rd/4th here, based on what are many things that I liked about him going into the Derby.
I'm expecting a very moderate pace, so with the lack of a lot of other speed horses to challenge CMM, I think that one will run well. New shooters in the Preakness often lack the class of the returning Derby runners, but CMM's demonstrated class in addition to his freshness makes him a contender for 2nd/3rd/4th in my opinion.
I also have to give MULT a very realistic shot for 2nd/3rd/4th, because his late pace pattern over the last 2 races matches that of these recent Preakness runners, all of whom outran their odds: Zetterholm (4th in 2012), Ride on Curlin (2nd in 2014), and Tale of Verve (2nd in 2015).
For various reasons that I won't bother to list (unless anyone asks), I don't fancy GUNN, LAL, SEN, TOA, or CC in this particular race, despite their talents.
***This post has been edited to include only my thoughts on the 5 horses I like and the 5 I don't like. I took down my proposed wagers because I'm totally rethinking that now. I'll try to post my ticket structure later if I can ever figure out how to translate my thoughts into bets, LOL.
Meanwhile, as always, I appreciate reading the thoughts (and especially the wager structures) of anyone who'd like to share.
My standard is to wager $2 win bets on each horse in my top 3 that are worse than 5-1. I also use $1 exactas between each of the top 3, with these exceptions: No pairs of favorites, or pairs of longshots. Also, in my betting line, I look for who are overlays in the field. I play $2 win bets on them, and $1 exactas using the top 2 public favorites over them in exactas.
I want AD to win to make it a high-interest Belmont.
But I am putting $20 on the nose of my (was-to-be) Derby horse - CMM
I'm sticking with Classic Empire. I will play straight tris with him over AD over Hence and CMM for various dollar amounts. I will flip CE and AD for smaller amounts. In case AD turns out to be a Super Saver (which I strongly doubt) I will have a small tri with him out of it.
I'm doing what you're doing except using Cloud Computing instead of Hence.....I may change depending upon how the Barton goes. If True Timber does nothing, and Pletcher's horse impresses, I may switch CC to CMM....
I am going to make a small $24 super wager on the race and if I like my selections enough come race time, I will bet it multiple times. I believe that AD & CE are the class of field. I will throw in one new shooter as a possible upsetter just in case AD & CE soften each other up. The horse I like in that spot is CC. This horse has had trouble with tardy starts in multiple races which I am hoping that Javier can alleviate. This horse also has more speed than he is being credited for. As I see the race AD & CE are going to break out running and I don't believe that CMM from the 10 hole is going to get an easy lead. Due to AD & CE being better than CMM, I see them at some point taking over. I hoping with a good break and the 2 hole that CC can set just behind AD & CE and take advantage if those two soften each other up. The remaining horses I like in order of preference are first LAL. I know a lot of people have dismissed this horse which I cannot figure out why, each race he seams to get better and that better coincides with add distance. The next horse I like is Gunnevera, even though I don't think he is as good right now as the four I mentioned due to a long campaign. I still think he is good enough to fill out the bottom of my exotic ticket. Finally if the pace is reasonable I believe that CMM can hang on for the 4 spot, but those are just my thoughts. Here is how I have constructed my ticket.
$1 Super 2x3x4x6=$24
1st - 2 & 4
2nd - 2, 4, & 5
3rd - 2, 4, 5, & 9
4th- 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, & 10
Also adding a $20 on the nose of Society Beau in the Sir Barton Stakes.
I will be using Hence, CCM and Gunnevera liberally in all 3 places on ticket. I wanted to use them more in the KY Derby and this is my chance to do it in this race instead. Asmussen has always done great in the Preakness.
CE is such a bad gate horse, watching the KY Derby head on it's just so clear, he broke so far sideways to the right that he created his own massive problem at the start. AS a matter of fact, had he not been situated where the gate breaks, with PLENTY of room between his post and the next post, he would have dangerously taken out at least 3 horses or more to his right if they had broke next to him. (yet the story keeps getting repeated that HE was mugged :rolls eyes:).
AD will probably sit the perfect trip again, but so many Preakness are not won by the favorite, in fact, usually not.
Will also use Multiplier in all spots on my tickets....because I'm a fan of the trainer.
Sprinkle in the favs in 2nd and 3rd.
Exacta box: throw both Asmussen horses in with Gunnevera and CCM
sovereign1 said...Also adding a $20 on the nose of Society Beau in the Sir Barton Stakes.
Nice live one there. I think I will do the same except use No Mo Dough, same M/L odds, 12-1.
Never been good at structuring bets. Not sure if I will bet yet, have been having seconditis/just missed syndrome all year. Of course my picks in the 8th finish 2-3.
While the KDW got another good post, at least the top competition is not way out wide on tracks that did not favor wide. He will be looked in the eye today. If I bet, I will bet it straight, hoping he is 3rd or 4th. No reason to spread today
Finally got one, exact in 10th came in, was wanting to bet W on the 10,but passed.
No W bets for me yet, all mine getting bet at least in half. Nose out for exacta in 11th. i swear I saw 6-1 on the winner right before the post. Not often see them go up like that, might be outside money coming in changed it.