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Queen's Plate- Woodbine- July 2nd   Handicapping

Started Jul-2 by Wintertrian; 567 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jul-2

This is a fantastic race with all horses this year being bred in ON, some truly nice pedigrees, and race is older than Canada itself!

Let's discuss!

Here are the brisnet pp's.....scoll down to King and His Court and select Ultimate PPs:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/MarkCasse/CASSE+MARK/9999/summary.html

 

I also downloaded the twinspires betting guide but having trouble uploaded it here.  Will try a bit later in next post.

In reply toRe: msg 1
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jul-2

Still can't upload the pdf, was gonna send to Tex and ask him to post it, then I found a copy online searching with Google  :)

https://www.twinspires.com/sites/twinspires.com/files/TwinSpiresQueensPlateBettingGuide_FA.pdf

In reply toRe: msg 2
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jul-2

I really have no clue yet, will give it a better look in the morning.  I would love to see Catherine Day Phillips win this thing though. 

TexSquared

From: TexSquared

Jul-2

and if you're watching on TV look for us, we'll be there shooting :-)

If you'd rather watch the network broadcast rather than the TVG version, tune in here starting 4:30PM ET:

http://www.stream2watch.cc/watch-tv/canada/ctv-live-stream

-Tex

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jul-2

thank you for the link.

This race has such an interesting history.  

I watched that Secretariat race in CAN against a Queen's Plate winner, Kennedy Road,  in the CAN INternational @ 13F.   Secretariat was ahead by so much it wasn't even funny.  Looked like it was going to be like the Belmont.... but he "only" won by 9 lengths.  :) Kennedy Road didn't hit the board. 

Fabulous race. 

 

TexSquared

From: TexSquared

Jul-2

Kennedy Road was not only a Queen's Plate winner he was also a good sprinter... his 6 furlong Woodbine dirt track record of 1:08 3/5 (set in 1973) stood till 1999 I think! 

(Woodbine's dirt was never lightning-fast nor did they scrape and roll it like Churchill...)

Of course I'm not old enough to have watched Secretariat run here... I was still in the oven :-)

-Tex

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Jul-2

State Of Honor looks like the lone speed.  Unfortunately, he has only finished the deal 1 time.  (12-1-4-3)  I think he lands in the money here.  

I also like the two fillies.  Jimmy Jerkens must think highly of Holy Helena to enter her.  She closed well on the Tapeta to finish ahead of the favorite in The Woodbine Oaks.  She has a sub minute work coming into this.

The other filly, Inflexibility, was favored in the aforementioned race.  She was shuffled back & lost position but rallied for 3rd.  She picks up Castellano & should be running late.

Pretty nifty race.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jul-2

I don't like the favorite for the win (Holy Helena). Channel Maker scares me a little bit.  

However, going for value here: 

One I love here is #11, Aurora Way.  Just broke maiden, lightly raced, but has the pedigree for this and enough speed to sweep by at the end.  

Horse-for-course angle yields 2 horses:  Tiz a Slam (#12) and King and His Court (#6).  I'll take the latter on Tapeta.   King and His Court #6 might be able to get ahead at the stretch call and win on pure class. State of Honor is one of my favorite horses, but at this distance, on Tapeta, I think he backs up in the stretch, don't see him winning this one.  


11, 6 / 7, 1, 3,2,9,4 

11,6,/ 7, 1, 2, 3/ 7,1,3,2,9,4

then flip it.

 

#2, Guy Cabellero looks interesting but looses his jockey to Channel Maker, so I moved him to ITM. 
Bombers to include in exotics:  Watch Me Strut and Malibu Secret both lose their jockeys to other horses.  So:
Megagray (#9).  Love the breeder and trainer; seems like he could improve
Spirit of Caledon (#4) super bomber, cam improve and at 50-1 is worth putting under on a superfecta, "dad" won this. 

In reply toRe: msg 8
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jul-2

Other Stakes races at Woodbine: 

Highlander: 4,7,1,6 box 

King Edward: 6,5,4 2 box 

Singspeil: 7,1 w/4,3,1,6,7 

Dance Smartly: 6,8 w/1,4,5 
 

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Jul-2

Good luck, WT.   

I think Holy Helena would be playable if she was 6-1, but unplayable as chalk.  However, I do believe she is dangerous in here.

I happen to agree that I'd be surprised if State Of Honor won & not surprised if he lands in the money, especially with the projected race shape.  

I was watching some Woodbine yesterday & the Tapeta seemed to be playing fair.

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