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IOWA DERBY - July 7th   Handicapping

Started Jul-4 by Wintertrian; 1000 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jul-4

I usually play this because a lot of horses from Oaklawn go to Prairie Meadows when OP meet closes.  However, many of these seem to be working out at churchill as well.

I'ts an evening race, so you may or may not want to take "lights" into consideration.  I've lost more than enough $$ on Petrov  LOL  

But, I really like G3 level horses in general.  Always have.  And these fit the bill perfectly. 

 

Iowa Derby (G3) Prairie Meadows, Friday, July 07, 2017, Race 9-- 1-1/16 Dirt 

1 Petrov (KY)Ricardo Santana, Jr. 113 Ron Moquett 
2 Silver Dust (KY)Ken S. Tohill 113 Randy L. Morse 
3 McCormick (KY) Julien R. Leparoux 116 Ian R. Wilkes 
4 Impressive Edge Robby Albarado 116 Dale L. Romans 
5 Jerrid (KY) Ramon A. Vazquez 116 Scott E. Young 
6 Hence (KY) Mike E. Smith 122 Steven M. Asmussen 
7 Balandeen (KY) David Cabrera 119 Chris A. Hartman 
8 Line Judge (KY) Chris Landeros 113 Joe Sharp 
9 Thirstforlife (KY)Corey J. Lanerie 113 Mark E. Casse

In reply toRe: msg 1
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jul-4

I don't have PPs or odds yet.  I will be looking at Jerrid a little bit.  

Scott Young is very lucky for me.  I happened onto on of his filly's at OP, made $40, and then kept betting her for 5 months, and it's like nobody NOTICED her...........I was getting $50 on SHOW bets, and place bets...it was unreal.   No flashy wins but always showing up ITM at 20-1, 50-1, and 60-1 odds !!

Check out her charts and see what I mean, this went on from February til late June last year  LOL  For All The Grands

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Results.cfm?type=Horse&refno=9500668&registry=T&rbt=TB

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Jul-4

I lean towards Petrov in this. I think he needed to get away from the big boys, plus he gets a significant weight break from Hence. Maybe this is the right spot.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jul-4

I was thinking the same thing about Silver Dust.  Weight break, etc. and ran 3rd to McCraken

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Jul-4

There's only 1 horse in here who has even won a Grade 3 race.   That's Hence & inexplicably, he's 5-1 on the morning line.

Most of these are trying to become Grade 3 horses.   

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jul-6

somebody elsewhere suggested making a box of the horses they lost the most money on this year.  ROTFL  This particular field would be the perfect race for me based on THAT.  

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Jul-7

That might work.  :)

Or, you could play the horses who are bred for racing at night.  ;)

it is rumored that Crest keeps a super-secret file on those.  He hasn't referred to it, though, since the advent of electricity.

twoshots

From: twoshots

Jul-7

Those gas lamp races were tough to handicap

fivestaryak

From: fivestaryak

Jul-7

I only break out that super-secret file when the field is loaded with Alaskan breds. 

For the Iowa Derby I usually rely on the less useful file for all the previous results of TC runners, favorites, shippers from the left coast, Belmont, Pimlico, Churchill, Thistle, Prairie (locals), Keenland, Arlington, Lone Star, etc; along with starts, graded starts, performance stats. 

The morning line has it pretty close; a couple of them have proven patterns for the win spot.  They are just stats and have nothing to do with this year's bunch.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Jul-7

Very tough.  :)

Not as bad as the ostrich race, but close.

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