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Kentucky Derby 2018 ~ DogsUp ~ Delta    Triple Crown

Started 11/11/17 by DogsUp; 39229 views.
In reply toRe: msg 76
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

3/20/18

Other than save; American Pharoah, who ran at a high weight of 119 in his Rebel @ Oaklawn, and went on to be a 'very special colt,,,

A look back of this race shows this race at these low weights  in recent/past years have not proven to be a Key race to provide Derby hopefuls. None gone forwardly

  Hopportunity was scratched from his Derby.

In tossing eight runners from the 20 in the Derby, one of the biggest factors is runners who are adding 10 - 11 pounds, furlong and a half, Ten more horse to the field, compression of carrying new high weight.   (d)

(d)

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

3/20/18

DogsUp said...

A look back of this race shows this race at these low weights  in recent/past years have not proven to be a Key race to provide Derby hopefuls. None gone forwardly

 

Very true if only counting the "winners" of the Rebel and only counting "Kentucky Derby"  but this race has been rather important for horses coming out of it. 

True you have to go back 10 years for Curlin and more for Smarty Jones, but out of Rebel Stakes came Creator who won the Belmont, Oxbow who won the Preakness and2nd in the Belmont,  Lookin at Lucky who won the Preakness and Haskell, Will Take Charge who didn't make much in the TC races, but more than made up for it in the BCC, Clark, Travers, etc., Caleb's Posse, etc.

 

I kinda like this race for predicting success in races after the TC races.    There are always some late developers or those running at wrong distance like Whitmore, Will Take Charge, etc.   I think Sporting Chance may be one like that.  


 

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

3/21/18

Yes, we are talking about the getting into the Derby from point races and this race as one of the many pt races. Further the scale of weights conditions not providing a more robust performance experience.

Curling great example, Ajaxer (did not run as 2yr old) and 3 races before his Derby.

And yes some go on from Rebel to success in next jewels of trip crown. Longer.

But this thread is about arriving to and I'll settle for cashing a 2018 Derby tri first:)

My best ~ enjoy the trip ... Life's and racing's!

(d) 

In reply toRe: msg 1
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

3/21/18

As I mentioned in my  November 2017 post here:

"Anecdotal media info prior says Godolphin has few but pricy 2 yos and they plan to polish up their reputation with ...perhaps Derby, and Godolphin made headway in 2 wins Bred Cup 2017. A perusal of breeding and family line runners I like.  Plans and playbook in place, refreshed @ Godolphin."

Avery Island was one of The Big G's colts and now out due to injury.

The 2nd colt turned out to be Enticed holding 2nd most points by one pt to leader at 63 pts.

Enticed is headed for the Kiss of Death race for next out Derby winner contest Wood Memorial Feb 7th at Big A.

Last year's  Wood winner Irish War Cry was just centavos off being betting favorite in 2017 Derby Dukats. 

Bad weather this weekend in New York could sustain a slow track come Wood day and that far away.

Last year's contest was1:52 ish and yet forced me to put that runner and ultimate  winner of Ky Derby on top for trifecta wheel.

In last, Gotham winner@ Big A, Enticed; came out from furthest outpost, 9 hole, ran five wide, and was wrapped up going to wire on a cold winter's day (Lacked California Dreaming on such a winter's day) .

The colt enticed starts to run at 7.5 to a mile and is a large monster by sire M'Dag. Google images and see his copperish metallic coat ala the likes of Big Red. He has a faint star flash mark. Just enough for my liking and requirement of this feature.

But stats now upon us for 2018 with potential betting favorite winning the Derby six times in a row. Not this year, and with a 20 combo-mathamatica. Maybe fav draws post 17? Smile.

Tri crown winners like the 3 issue race in the higher 60 degrees.

New York - New York it's a wondeful town, the Bronx is up and the Battery's down (old tune).................(new) If I can make it there, I'll Make It anywhere.. so start spreading the news.. (d)

(d)

  • Edited March 21, 2018 8:40 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 66
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

3/26/18

Correction -- This Saturday to Next Saturday provides Delta horse -

Enticed.

Mile and an eighth at The Big A.  Wood Memorial - Two Turns.

In his last, Gotham, one turn mile from the chute (run up 50 feet), ran out of most outpost #9, Five wide, Finished wrapped up.

Big A Track, Ozone NY;  is 9 furlongs - two turn race - run up

75 feet.

Run Ups

Derby 34, Peak 30, Belmont Stks 84.

First turn comes suddenly.  This and run-up account for seemingly flat times. Dogs ponders colt's last performance running wide and wrapped-up perhaps will knock off a tick or two in Wood. Colt pops stride at 7.5 to mile.

Weights 123.  All.

There are 8 Derby preps left for points today, so even if scratched, Enticed already has secured his place in the 20 colt May deal.

Cool weather training  this year and already in a cool weather race yielding a win @ Big A doesn't hurt in this weekend's cooler than normal NY temp. forecast. Will ship in from Pl M tr track Florida.

  At least seven days canceled this meet due to snow/Temp.                              

  • Edited March 26, 2018 6:18 pm  by  DogsUp
TexSquared

From: TexSquared

3/26/18

DogsUp said:

This Saturday provides Delta horse - Enticed. Mile and an eighth at The Big A. Wood Memorial - Two Turns.

You do realize the Wood Memorial isn't until Saturday April 7.   This Saturday is the Florida Derby (and the UAE Derby).

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

3/26/18

HI Tex

Guess I can't wait. 

The snow fall here in NY  perhaps is making me dizzy.

Everything else holds true.

Thanks correction made above.

Regards (d)

  • Edited March 26, 2018 6:19 pm  by  DogsUp
TexSquared

From: TexSquared

3/26/18

The Wood has always been my favorite prep race too...  so of course I'm also looking forward to it!

In reply toRe: msg 1
DogsUp

From: DogsUp

3/28/18

About early or any tosses  pria de Kentucky de raciado

.. (d) has tossed a Frisbee, a salad, his head back; and on occasion to get my message across exactamundo  tossed an advisarial fit @ a law office.

El Wayno D Lukas is definitely hoping when he goes to the window de tictito that other peeps hope his boy is cooked for furlongestos.

He does like to return to la fenetre.

See his 2012 Bred Cup winner...... Hightail. Equibase record

This tot's PPs vs his BC performance were more hidden than a lost Easter egg after the hunt was over. An early toss can provide a huge loss.

(d)

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

3/29/18

DogsUp said:

An early toss can provide a huge loss.

I agree.  

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