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Any thoughts on the UAE 2000 Guineas   Triple Crown

Started 3/1/18 by Wintertrian; 3897 views.
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

3/30/18

That was a wow race.  It kind of reminded me of Big Brown though this guy looks a lot smaller.  I got burned at left at the gate (literally) last year with Thunder Snow but Gold Town looks like he's in a class all by himself.  It would be nice to see him get a prep here before the derby but maybe he'll prove its not necessary.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

3/30/18

I got burned, too.  Maybe we would have been okay if the horse's name was Thunder Rain or in the very, very unlikely event of snow in Louisville in May.  ;)

Yes, a wow race.  I'm really looking forward to the UAE Derby this year.  It's deep.  I think the consensus is either for Mendelssohn or Gold Town but there's also Reride & beyond that since we're talking about Spring 3 year olds, a dark horse who could jump up.

Gerh

From: Gerh

3/30/18

I like Gold Town and Yulong Warrior in here.If the track continues to play to speed ,Yulong Warrior could be tough at a decent price

In reply toRe: msg 13
SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

3/30/18

Speed is holding & the rail has been good to very good.  Yulong took advantage & looked good over the same distance as the UAE Derby...his rider is a bonehead, though, for hitting him with the whip while he was at least 8 lengths in the clear in the stretch.  What could that pea brain be thinking?

15-1 m/line.  The only drawback is that he won't get the same liberties on the front that he got on March 10th.

I've made it no secret I really like Gold Town but at the projected price, I'll just watch.  I think the Japanese entry at 25-1 m/line could land somewhere below.

Plus, Aidan O'Brien's got 2 & it's never a good idea to underestimate him or his horses.

Good luck, my friend, if you decide to indulge in a flutter.

Gerh

From: Gerh

3/30/18

Aidan tends to be a little like Baffert in that you have to pay attention to his “other” runners.I had an uncle in Ireland who quit betting a lot of flat races because Aidan would have so many entries in any given race.

Yulong likes being up front and seems quick enough to get over in the early stages.I like that he is able to rate while on the lead.Agree with you about the jockey.Looks like a good race.Best of luck to you also

fivestaryak

From: fivestaryak

3/30/18

Is that the colt named Ruggero?  He's interesting for what we do over here.  Also interesting that his bms is Almutawakel...the Gold Town connection.  

Believe he is nom'd and 2nd in Jpn points...he is in if the Jpn points leader(not nom'd) stays home.

Read that Gronkowski might come; Ruggero makes the trip and Catholic Boy runs well...that's three T2's this year--last time 2002; hip, hip hooray!

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

3/30/18

Refresh my memory please. What's a T2, and which three ran on '02?

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

3/30/18

There are two interesting Japanese entries who could impact underneath & create value for the exotic players:  Ruggero (40-1 m/l) and Taiki Ferveur (25-1)   TF was 2nd in the Hyacinth & Ruggero was 3rd. 

Here's a link to the Japanese DB for Taiki Ferveur:

http://www.jbis.jp/horse/0001207920/pedigree/

He's clearly better on dirt than turf (click on race records to see results)

Big weekend for some good horses in Florida & Meydan.   

fivestaryak

From: fivestaryak

3/30/18

Nearco-Royal Charger-Turn To

Some may refer to the Royal Charger Line but, here, Turn To works.  I include Royal Charger's numbers in with Nearco(NEAR).  D: 9-0-1-1-1; P: 5-1-1-0-0; B: 3-1-0-1-0.  Royal Charger wasn't the most pleasant of chaps but his most successful runners were probably Mongo and Copenhagen. 

Turn To (1951) has created a big tent.  His total numbers here: D: 88-5-5-6-6; P: 43-3-4-4-5; B: 54-4-3-11-4 C: 31-3-2-3-4 (19 classics).  Like Mr. P and the other lines that have many reps, I keep stats on each of their sons.  Turn To has his own numbers in any of the four spots x/x/x/x; his sons that have produced include All Hands, Best Turn, Captain's Gig, Cyane, Dead Ahead, First Landing, Hail To Reason, Reverse, Sir Gaylord and Swerve.  Hail To Reason had many reps so they get their own numbers; Aristocratic, Bold Reason, Good Counsel, Hail To Pirates, Hail To All, Halo, Mr. Leader, Personality, Proud Clarion, Roberto, Stop The Music, Turn To Reason and Within Hail.

Ruggero's sire and MTR are Halo's with a record of D: 19-2-2-0-2; P: 9-1-1-1-0; B: 8-0-1-3-0

Gronkowski is a Sir Gaylord with a record of D: 8-0-1-1-0; P: 5-0-0-0-1; B: 4-0-0-0-0

MTR is a T2/MRP/x/x sire.  I pulled for Saint Liam (T2/MRP) to get a TC type but Havre De Grace played in the Classic; Blame (T2/MRP) is still trying.  Gronkowski's sire is a T2/MRP....Gronk isn't really my cup of tea should he show up for the Derby but I'll take another look.

Ruggero's sire is a T2/RIB.  His sire brings the lines of sires Dynaformer and Take Me Out that produced a couple nice ones.

As for 2002, that would be Perfect Drift 3rd, Itsallinthechase 16th and Wild Horses 18th.  Didn't have any reps in 2001 but 2000 also had three reps headed up by your boy, MTR.

As a line, I can give you all the numbers for T2/x/x/x; x/T2/x/x; x/x/T2/x; x/x/x/T2 but some sub-lines are strong than others, i.e. Halo/x/x/x; x/Halo/x/x; x/x/Halo/x; x/x/x/Halo vs all the others.  

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