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From the current top 30, a few that are done prepping and took a step back or look to be distance challenged:
Promises Fulfilled...center of distribution too high
My Boy Jack...c.d. Too low with no solid/professional points
Snapper Sinclair...step back
Dream Baby Dream...c.d. Too high
Audible...c.d. Too high
Kanthaka...c.d. Too high
I would wait on Promises and Audible until after the FL Derby.....though I do prefer Catholic Boy there, either of those two could end up showing up well, certainly.
The only toss thus far (out of the likely 20 to make the gate) for me is Bravazo....probably Enticed after the Wood, Delta colt nothwithstanding :)
I’m probably going to toss everyone from the Sunland too but haven’t decided yet lol. I can’t keep Promises or Audible. In the last ten derbies there’s only been one horse in the money (out of forty) with a c.d. over 1.00, Musket Man. Might as well use dosage while we still have it. The next one over 1.00 will just have to beat me.
Conversely, the horses whose c.d. is below .50 and that finished itm (with a few winning) have all had solid and/or professional points. My Boy Jack’s profile is 3-2-13-0-0.
A reasonable call on My Boy Jack with no points with that cd...Giants Causeway will do that to your profile.
72-5-4-5-1 (0.40-0.49) 1931-Present
09-1-0-0-0 (0.40-0.49 without points) 1931-Present; Untrapped, Mor Spirit, Giant Finish, Carpe Diem, Hold Me Back, Cowboy Cal then Groovy 86, Rancho Lejos 70 and the winner Twenty Grand 31.
ND/NAS/x/x sires are 8-0-0-0-0; SC/NAS/x/x sires are 9-0-0-0-0.
Even with points in the 0.40's, the last 27 runners got Funny Cide and Commanding Curve at the line.
My Boy Jack's bottom might be an issue. Gold Alert made his bottom debut with Girvin; he did sire Jed Forest (5.80/1.26) that finished 10th in the 95 classic. Quadratic is a Mahmoud that can be a plus but he on the bottom has Mr. Commons P-8th 2011 and sired Home At Last that did not finish in the 90 classic.
His family 14-e is D: 3-0-0-0-0; P: 3-0-0-2-0; B: 0-0-0-0-0; C: 0-0-0-0-0. Tipsand 1912 and Our Boots 1941 got the Preakness 3rds. My Boy Jack's conduit in family 14-e produced only Kissin Saint P-10th 2003. Although he didn't run worth a darn, his family has one of my all time favorite pedigrees. The breeders of Fighting Hodge 1960 did like them some Teddy.
Also agree with the cd calls. Awesome Again picked up his IC apron, so his profile numbers changed--not a big deal. Awesome Act's cd went from 1.03 to 0.85. When Game on Dude ran in the Belmont he was a 3.67/1.14; revised dropped to 3.29/0.80.
Since you mentioned in the money I won't include 4th place.
193-8-16-8 (cds 1.01 and higher 1920-Pres)
070-2-3-3 (cds 1.01 and higher 1980-Pres) Musket Man 3rd 09, Invisible Ink 2nd 01; Real Quiet 1st 98, Thunder Gulch 1st 95, Menifee 2nd 99; Dance Floor 3rd 92; Mane Minister 3rd 91 and Desert Wine 2nd 83.
Unfortunately, last year the connections of Meantime (7.00/1.08) got thrown in the Belmont for an 8th.
As always, good luck!
Thanks yak, love your stuff! I did mean top four and not just in the money but I usually only make it back ten years or so before my ADD kicks in lol. Do you expect to see more Unbridleds/Caros/Storm Cats like the past three years?
That is a crazy pedigree. You’d have thought they would have at least named him Roosevelt or something. Maybe Hodge was the guy fighting to get all that Teddy.
Unfortunately, 'taps' can slow down or stop many a productive line. I was concerned with xx/SC/xx/xx in that spot but Bodemeister did okay with his 1st crop. The Fappiano line looks healthy...hopefully!
I follow trends...the one I'm interested in is all of the 3.00 di's. Whether they stay or not, the top 20 is sporting 8 of them (crazy) and there is a bunch in the hole and on deck. Once the final field is set, if I remember, I'll post the 3.00 stats in the various categories.
Interesting stuff! And Doc, Audible might be one to look at in the Belmont with that np damline if he sticks around and/or doesn’t get in the derby.
I like SD on the bottom in the Belmont but Gilded Time? Not much on him for stretch...if you throw out Distorted Humor, you can run Practical Joke (best effort award imo for 2017) in the Belmont.
Anything can win the Belmont, so why not! Governor Malibu's family is closest...there you go
Lol I don't know. There's not a lot to choose from this year.