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After reviewing the field for the FL Derby, I believe that no less than half the field has a chance to win. I also believe that the entire key to the race rest with the strategy employed by Strike Power and Promises Fulfilled. This is how I intend to play the race.
Strike Power (SP) – is my top choice. Breaking out of the one hole, he should leave the gate running and wire the field. I like the fact that he is now at equal weights with Promises Fulfilled (PF). Also PF has enough points to make the Derby field, so he really just needs to run a race good enough to set him up for the next one on his home track.
Promises Fulfilled (PF) – I think the emphasis for this horse should be the next race. If I was the connections I would not get into a pace duel with SP. Instead I would set just off of him and if SP proves to be more sprinter than router then take advantage.
Catholic Boy (CB) – I think CB’s best chance here is 2nd. I like the fact that he picks-up Irad Ortiz, but not the way the track lends itself to early speed. Also even though CB has been training well, I think he has been a little too aggressive in the AM, like he has gone to long without a race. CB though is the only horse in the field with a win at 1-1/8.
Mississippi – If there is an upset today I believe it will be with this horse. I don’t like the outside post, but there are a number of other things to like. I like the addition of blinkers, he has been training well, and I also like the races he is coming out of. I am no pedigree expert, but the 1-1/8 shouldn’t be a problem.
Audible – I really don’t know what to do with this horse. He trains like an average horse, but runs like a good one. I am just going to have to take a stand against and only use him on the bottom of my tri & super plays. I also don’t like the jock change.
Hofburg – I don’t blame the connections for taking a shot here. His last race to me was impressive visually. He broke from the 11 hole here at GP at a 1-1/16 and won with ease, which is no easy feat. I will use him on the bottom of a number of my tickets.
Storm Runner – on his best day this horse can run. He has been training exceptionally well for this, so I can’t blame anyone for thinking this horse has a shot. Maybe Gaffalione will fit him like a glove. I will use him on the bottom of a number of my tickets.
Tip Sheet & Millionaire Runner – running here because the prize money for 5th in a Million$$+ race is nothing to sneeze at.
I will be making a number of bets on this race. My first three will be.
WSP – Strike Power – Amount determined by the odds.
$1 Tri – 1, 4, 9 w 1, 4, 6, 9 w 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 = $45
$1 Super - 1, 4, w 1, 4, 6, w 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 w 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 = $80
Not that excited about the FL derby this year.
I am not well acquainted with the track bias at Gulfstream, but the only horses I like are Strike Power, Storm Runner, and Catholic Boy.
I'm also going to put in a llittle flyer wageron Tip Sheet to hit the board, HFC and cuz I love Stanley Gold.
You think he has a shot..haha
I actually don't think Hofburg won with ease......Just Whistle was closing steadily and would've won if the race was a little bit longer. I think Hof was short, but that should set him up for this race, possibly. He is dogs Delta horse, which I'm still not sure what that means. I'll be playing him for 3rd/4th....behind CB and Promises. I, too, don't know what to do with Audible. I did bet him healthily in the futures, so I am certainly rooting for him, I just don't understand Todd's preparation here. Maybe he knows best, and the horse comes out running. Tough field, but I'm going with CB on top!
I just don't understand Todd's preparation here.
Don't even try. :)
If there's even half the inside speed bias that Meydan exhibited, better not be too far off after 7 furlongs.
I am disappointed in Catholic Boy. Back to the drawing board. Put him back on the turf, even though his dirt numbers are better?
What was up with the two "geniuses" that thought they were in a match race? They should be able to punish stupid riding, as they do reckless riding. Not fair to the bettors.
Very disappointing race for Catholic Boy....I expected/hoped for so much more, especially after Mendelssohn's victory, making the BC Juvy Turf THE key race. Oh well, maybe they'll find something....or wheel back in two weeks at the Lexington? MIght be an easy way to get the necessary 20 points. They said the horse needed more time between races, but maybe the opposite is true?
You think he has a shot..haha
Tip Sheet beat Promises Fulfilled, Storm Runner, and Strike Power. :) But I betcha he didn't take a lot of money.
That's what everyone said at the track on Friday in race 5 about Checotah with a relatively unknown trainer and so so jockey but I had him in my virutal stable for a few months so I bet him. Everyone laughed at me.
princeofdoc said..., too, don't know what to do with Audible
He's a very L-o-o-n-g horse. Makes a good router. IMHO, I don't really like his conformation though.
I w a s j o s h I n g u.
Tried my honest to goodness hardest to get this horse to figure..was hoping the odds stayed where they were.
Ultimately, called an Audi..
Passed on the race.
More from your Virtual Stable,
If you would, kindly.