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Looks like we'll have a contentious Derby, and we still have 4 major preps left!
1) Mendelssohn.....been in my top 20 since Jan.1st, but this past performance moves him into 1st
2) Bolt D'oro.....expecting him to win the SA Derby next week
3) Audible.....who knows how good he is, or even if Todd thinks he his the best in his stable
4) Solomini.....my pick to win the Wood convincingly
5) Good Magic.....I think we'll see him come to form in the Bluegrass
6) Magnum Moon....Like him to show up big time in the Ark Derby
7) Gronkowski.....have no idea how good he is, but it looks like he'll make the gate
8) McKinzie.....minor setback, expect him to run in the Ark Derby, taking on Magnum
9) Justify......Just can't decide, I guess we'll find out if he can compete when taking on Bolt next weekend
10) Hofburg.....quite a performance at GP, can move forward
11) Noble Indy.....he'll be there, but is he good enough to compete with the horses ahead of him?
12) Enticed.....we'll probably get to the gate, is already anointed as Dogs' Delta, not convinced he can make the top 10
13) Quip.....will get to the gate, may improve a bit, who knows
14) Combatant....may end up higher in the May list, depending upon his performance in the next prep
15) Instilled Regard.....my dark horse to qualify, will need a strong next race
16) Lone Sailor....will get in, and probably close for 15th or 16th
17) Runaway Ghost.....also get in, and stay in the back of the pack
18) Sporting Chance....way out on a limb here, but he just may qualify at Keeneland
19) Promises Fulfilled.....should still run, and will probably have a say in the pace (understatement of the post!)
20) Bravazo.....somebody has to come in 20th
Gidu (if he goes in prep race)
Old Time Revival (seems like a tough horse)
Bolt d' Oro
Free Drop Billy
- on the bubble:
McKinzie per Baffert this morning may not make Derby. He said he's being extra cautious and will be doing more tests. Not going to track today.
Can't be losing training time this late in game.
Winter, the reason no one is talking about Gidu is:
1) Never raced on dirt
2) With opportunities to enter races to lead up to a prep, Todd decided against
3) Has not entered a Derby prep, nor given the impression he will be...
Now, IF Pletcher decides to enter him in the Ark Derby, we'll be talking about him, certainly. But the top 20 list is generally a picture of the most likely entrants into the Derby. Perhaps a different list would be interesting to compile, one of the top 20 3yr. olds under the radar and NOT likely to go in the Derby. Gidu and Rayya would both belong on the list!
I do think Instilled Regard will get another chance in the SA Derby, though he will be battling Justify and Bolt. He may actually qualify with a 3rd place finish actually, so who knows. I like him too, and he just might make the exacta.
Looks like Blended Citizen will go in the BG, so we'll see how he fits after that race.....
1. Bolt d’oro
That’s about all I got right now lol.
Wow! Solo up top? Love the faith....I'm actually rooting for you!
princeofdoc said...the top 20 list is generally a picture of the most likely entrants into the Derby. Perhaps a different list would be interesting to compile, one of the top 20 3yr. olds under the radar and NOT likely to go in the Derby. Gidu and Rayya would both belong on the list!
Thank you for your thoughts, I actually agree. My list changes, I'm going to edit it til I like the way it looks. :)
For now I'm leaving Gidu til I see if he runs in the Arkie Derby......but will take Rayya off I guess. I'll put Vino Rosso there instead.
April Top Twenty:
1) Justify - On sheer talent alone, I will put this one on top. Needs to show it against top tier competition. I believe he will.
2) Magnum Moon - Not far behind top one in raw talent alone.
3) Bolt d'Oro - Could convince me with victory over Justify. I know that's backwards as he's the proven commodity, but it's my top 20, so there!
4) Audible - Big win in the Fla. Derby.
5) Mendelssohn - Looked like Secretariat in the UAE, or was that one of those desert mirages?
6) Good Magic - We'll see if he gets back near the top in the Bluegrass
7) Solomini - Needs to show more than his last
8) Gronkowski - Don't know where to put him really.
9) Hofburg - Fast improving
10) Enticed - Impressive Gotham
11) Greyvitos - Loads of talent. I need to see him in the Lexington.
12) Promises Fulfilled - Ridiculous pace duel told us nothing. Throw it out.
13) Quip - Apparently improved significantly between 2 and 3.
14) Flameaway - Was closing well in Tampa Bay Derby
15) Noble Indy - He won a prep, but I don't like him that much
16) Combatant - Consistent, but seems a notch below, but come May, with a little luck, who knows?
17) Instilled Regard - Risen Star was sub par, but he's better than that.
18) Machismo - poor start in the FOY. Let's see what he can do in the Bluegrass
19) Title Ready - After appearing that this year would be More Than Ready's best chance to get a Derby winner, this one and the previous are all that's left due to the loss of Catholic Boy and Copper Bullet.
20) Runaway Ghost - I wasn't really impressed with the Sunland field.
Bubble: Exclamation Point, Restoring Hope, Old Time Revival, Tenfold
Nice list, enjoyed the comments. I haven't had time to do so yet, but I keep meaning to get the top twenty five or so graded out in order, which would make it much easier to update/make additions as they finish out their last prep. Maybe tomorrow :)