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Looking to play the Arkansas Derby on Saturday but there will be a lot of chalk so finding value could be tough. Looking at this Curlin boy who already has raced 2 turns pretty well. Obviously the money will be pointed to Magnum Moon, Solomini, Quip and Combatant and rightfully so but thinking about a $10 ATB on Tenfold just to keep my addiction satisfied until derby day. Anyone care to enter their thoughts on conditioning, pedigree, likes, don't likes? Like always I appreciate it.
It's 9f's so they all work.
At 10f's Magnum Moon might not catch the rain and doesn't have Unbridled as his bms. He's running on Graeme Hall's family and is more likely to end up a Shagaf, General Quarters or Incognito type. His 2nd dam sire is a Storm Cat and his 3rd dam sire is a MRP(10-0-1-0-1). Since he has enough points, I'd like to see him save some and run 4th.
The MRP's are questionable this year but I prefer Quip (Normandy Invasion's family) over Solomini (Frosted's family). Both can fill a spot in the trifecta in Arkansas. If Indian Charlie can push Samraat, then I'll bite and give the ole MRP sire a shot with Quip. Quip's big goose egg is his 3rd dam sire, the RAN line (20-0-1-0-1).
If there is a breeder cabal afoot, Combatant (the 4th Scat Daddy) is in the middle of it.
Sires having three individual runners complete in a given year in one or more TC races isn't that uncommon, 49 of them; sires with four individual runners, 14 of them; sires with five individual runners, 2 of them (Leamington 1875 and Chicle 1923) and sires with six individual runners, 2 of them (Leamington 1875 and Uncle Mo 2016.
Getting four or more individual runners in a specific TC race is a small club. Should Combatant(Scat Daddy) get enough points in the Arkansas, Scat Daddy will join Enquirer 1875 and 1878 and Chicle 1923. The Preakness has one sire in Uncle Mo 2016. The Belmont has Lexington 1868 and 1871 and the record holder currently is Leamington 1875.
The bar is pretty low for Scat Daddy as Chicle's derby runners finished 6th, 7th, 15th and 20th. Enquirer's runners in the two derbies finished 7th, 9th, 11th, 12th and 4th, 5th, 6th and 8th. Should Scat Daddy's follow Chicle's and Enquirer's runners, I suspect the exotics will pay well.
Heavy info like always yak. Thank you. Any specific thoughts on Tenfold? I know you said i'ts 9f so anything goes but is he in over his head with this bunch?
As I mentioned before, Curlin can fix a few shortcomings. If Tapit on the bottom can get his daughters to work, he'll be productive. Not much to go on since the numbers are short. Only one at this level with that nick just ran in the desert in the UAE in Reride. He's running (closest) to Eddington's family. I suppose it is just a matter of time and more numbers, but SC (Giants Causeway or any) in that spot has been poor. Twenty-four nom'd last year and none made a TC race. Northern Baby as the 3rd has shown up in many nom'd runners but none have made it. Avatar was a bad dude on the track and has influenced a few quality runners but nothing to write home about. I had high hopes for some Avatar daughters but no joy.
My stuff says no but I like him (he's by Curlin and I like his name). Hopefully he goes off at some high odds; I didn't get the total odds I needed in the Bluegrass to place a bet so fingers crossed. Doesn't look good, however.