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Arkansas Derby   Triple Crown

Started Apr-10 by Wintertrian; 3224 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-10

It's tues before the race.   Magnum Moon  and Hedgefund just landed in Hot Springs....not on track yet.  
Quip galloped about 1-1/2 miles round the track. 
Asmussen had Combatant and Tenfold out on the track for breezing and working.

Solomini worked in SA wtih Dabster, 6F in 1:13.60

Forecast is for rain late friday night  -- well it's spring in arkansas, what did you expect?  Sat might be a nice day though. 
Fri:  Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. South southwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Apr-10

Not worried at all about the weather. The Malibu Moon's usually relish the off going!

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-11

I don't know what the final field will be.  I will say I didn't much like Somomini's workouts of late. 

I haven't decided if I will attend ARK Derby or not this year.  I say this every year, but it's really gotten a lot more crowded there (harder to find a parking space, too) and/or I have gotten older.   The Rebel attendance was about 37,500 and  I just about survived the approx. 35,000 crowd on truck/boat giveaway day;  Ark Derby is usually over 60,000 people.....I just don't know if I want to be in that kinda crowd.  

 

It was funny reading all season the forums where people wager Oaklawn because other than the big stakes races, it is actually a very difficult track to handicap, I see people go there for a week and are thrilled if they come out $4.00 ahead.  :)  

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-11

RAESFAN said...

The Malibu Moon's usually relish the off going

I wonder if there are stats on horses in KY Derby who have unraced or non-winning dams?

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Apr-11

At the venue I attend to watch races and occasionally bet, we can't bet Oaklawn for some reason. Since it's so tough to handicap, maybe we got lucky. At least we get to watch the races.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Apr-11

A quick bit of research resulted in a sample of dams between 2000 - 2010. I found a blog that had the following info. I then went and looked at those from 2011 - 2017. It seems the dams don't have to be high performers. However, it seems as if they need to have run. I don't know what percent of the overall pool of dams are unraced, but my cursory review seems to indicate that they don't do so well.

"Dams of Derby Winners Since 2000:

2010 Supercharger (A.P. Indy-Get Lucky, by Mr. Prospector)
2009 Mining My Own (Smart Strike-Aspenelle, by Vice Regent)
2008 Mien (Nureyev-Miasma, by Lear Fan)
2007 Bedazzle (Dixieland Band-Majestic Legend, by His Majesty)
2006 La Ville Rouge (Carson City-La Reine Rouge, by King’s Bishop)
2005 Set Them Free (Stop the Music-Valseuse, by Tyrant)
2004 I’ll Get Along (Smile-Don’t Worry Bout Me, by Foolish Pleasure)
2003 Belle’s Good Cide (Slewacide-Belle of Killarney, by Little Current)
2002 Sweetest Lady (Lord at War-Sweetest Roman, by The Pruner)
2001 Regal Band (Dixieland Band-Regal Roberta, by Roberto)
2000 Angel Fever (Danzig-Rowdy Angel, by Halo)

Of the 11 mares noted above, only one—Mining My Own—was unraced. All 10 starters were winners, with the most prolific being Smarty Jones’ stakes winning dam I’ll Get Along who won 12 of 39 starts. She was also arguably the most precocious, breaking her 2-year-old maiden going 6 furlongs, at first asking, by over 12 lengths. After breaking her maiden first out, Fusaichi Pegasus’ dam Angel Fever ran second in Monmouth’s juvenile Colleen Stakes, came up lame and then never raced again. The other stakes winners: Giacomo’s juvenile stakes winning dam Set Them Free, and Barbaro’s dam La Ville Rouge who was Grade 2-placed on turf.

Overall, seven of the 10 starters either won or placed going at least 8 furlongs."

2011: Dalicia(Animal Kingdom) – Stakes winner(Grade 3) in Europe

2012: Arch’s Gal Edith(I’ll Have Another) – One start, maiden win

2013: Lady Liberty(Orb) – Allowance winner at 12f on grass

2014: Love The Chase(California Chrome) – Bottom level claiming win at a mile

2015: Littleprincessemma(American Pharaoh) – Unplaced in two starts

2016: Seeking Gabrielle(Nyquist) – Maiden claiming win

2017: Above Perfection(Always Dreaming) – Grade 3 winner at 6f

  • Edited April 11, 2018 10:13 am  by  RAESFAN
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Apr-11

Not sure how much stock I would put into that personally.  Am. Pharoah’s dam Littleprincessemma was winless in two starts.  I wouldn’t imagine there are too many that are completely unraced either.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Apr-11

When I have a little time, I will look at the potential field for this year's Derby, to see how many dams were unraced or non-winners.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-11

Oldbettowin said...

not sure how much stock I would put into that personally

 I normally don't either, it was just something that came to mind regarding Magnum Moon since the dam was unraced.  

fivestaryak

From: fivestaryak

Apr-11

Unbridleds Song over Giants Causeway has eight dams...might need to check back in a few years to see if the other seven have thrown anything.  I think the dam will work.  The Giants Causeway over Unbridleds Song nick has produced both boys and gals that had some quality to them.  If you are willing to stretch Giants Causeway to Storm Cat and review the Unbridleds Song over Storm Cat nick, you might get a sense of what Malibu Moon is working with. 

Orb broke the egg for those with MRP/MRP up the middle.  Currently D: 12-1-2-0 (Orb, Nehro, Closing Argument and Musket Man); Suddenbreakingnews, Tapit, Cool Coal Man and Shagaf were fellow API's that missed out.  P: 8-0-0-1-1 (Musket Man, Orb) with another API in Ring Weekend missing the super.  Belmont: 9-0-0-2-1 (Orb, Ready's Echo and Nehro); API's Matterhorn, Suddenbreakingnews and Matuszak missed the party.

The only x/MRP/MRP/x last year was Multiplier x/6/10 out of 47 that were nominated; 20 of those were API/MRP/MRP/x.  When I take a look at the possible nicks, I pull up all the x/MRP/MRP/x that were nom'd--ever.  There is always a bunch of nice ones that, for whatever reason, drop out.  Last year the API's had a decent bunch in Bonus Points, Ticonderoga, Fayeq, Change Of Venue, Hemsworth, Capitane, Sheer Flattery, Blind Ambition, Unbridled Eagle, Third Day, Currate, Classy Warrior, Takaful, Vanish, Tapsolute, Saraab, Bourbon Empire, Pretty City Dancer, Apollo Landing and a nice one with Unbridleds Song on the bottom in Unique Bella.  

Action Everyday was hot early.  More Than Ready always has a few good ones...Made You Look tried.  

This year besides Magnum Moon you have Lone Sailor along with Flamaway, Promises Fulfilled and Gronkowski.  Better idea after the Arkansas.  

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