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Posted this once already and for some reason the Post was avoided ... Not too familiar with posting here and know little compared to many in here , fyi .
Last 25 years No horse with the Exact Female Family Line of 16-g has won the Derby ...but 6/29 who entered derby in last 25 years that had the Number 16 Female Family Line have finished in 1st / 2nd / 3rd or 4th ....
Female Family Line 16-h ... Won 1 Derby ( 2006 / Barbaro ) .... 2 Placed from same 16-h Female Family Line ....1 Show from Female Family Line 16-h ....
1 Time the 16 -g ( Magnum Moon ) female family line ....finished in 4th Place .... 1/11 times when the 16-g female family line entered the derby in Last 25 years it finished in 4th place ...
All streaks like this do come to an end ...like anything in sports gambling .... Just a guide ..... Your Call ... but for me .... I'm playing Magnum Moon in the 2,3,4 spots only in the derby and I should not even do that really ... I should just play Magnum Moon in the 4th Spot only with the info above ...
Thoughts appreciated .... Just learning the game , be cool ...
Worth considering. Would you like Magnum Moon any more or less if he were from Arrogate's conduit?
Family 16 and subs 16-a, 16-b, 16-c, 16-d, 16-e, 16-f, 16-g and 16-h with a total of 32 conduits
D: 81-04-04-03-07; P: 46-02-06-10-05; B: 42-04-05-02-05; C: 28-03-03-03-02
From the above totals, 16-g has six conduits
D; 23-01-00-00-02; P: 12-00-01-05-02; B: 14-01-03-02-02; C: 10-01-00-00-00
Magnum Moon is from conduit St Agnes...not to be confused with St Agnes from family A5
D: 06-00-00-00-00; P: 03-00-00-02-00; B: 05-00-01-02-00; C: 02-01-00-00-00
Runners from Magnum Moon's conduit: D: Lotowhite 7th 1950; Pellicle 8th 1946, Diligence 9th 1996; Robert Morris 9th 1941; Wolfie's Rascal 17th 1982 and Graeme Hall 19th 2000. Graeme Hall is the closest to Magnum Moon. P: Senior Investment 3rd 2017; Badge 3rd 1999 and Galloping Grocer 13th 2005. B: Robert Morris 2nd 1941; Sunriver 3rd 2006; Choker 3rd 1963; Senior Investment 5th 2017 and Lotowhite 8th 1950. C: Arrogate 5th 2017 and Arrogate 1st 2016.
The lone derby winner from family 16-g was from conduit Olympia (Shut Out 1942). Solomini is from that conduit and is closest to Frosted.
Families can be useful when used in conjunction with specific line/name influences as they are added in the shed. Interesting that you would consider Magnum Moon underneath but not in the win spot based on his family. Good luck with that.
Honestly bro ...I don't anything about what conduits are ? I mentioned , I'm new to the game , but trying to learn more about pedigree ... I'm not a brightest apple in the tree bro , to be honest , but capable of using a numbers angle in which this thread is all about ...
Appreciate the feedback bro ....
No I would never use Magnum Moon on top in Derby , period ...
I will have some luck with that as well ...thanks
4 winners total from any branch of family 16:
16g Shut Out 1942
16h Chateaugay 1963
16c Strike the Gold 1991
16h Barbaro 2006
It probably doesn’t mean anything, but each of these had at least two of the four main sire lines not descending from Phalaris (Shut Out had 0 Phalaris lines, Chateaugay had 1, StG had 2, and Barbaro had 2). Magnum Moon’s four main sirelines are all descended from Phalaris.
Have to ask bro ... cause I'm learning here ...would you look at similar Dosages between previous winners or possibly anything else inside the horse's pedigree of Malibu Moon that are similar to past 16 Family Winners besides the Phalaris angle , which is probable solid ?
I am a superfecta only player when it comes to the derby. Love that you guys are talking about conduits. One of the tools I have used to make tough decisions for who to slot into the top spot on my tickets has been the stamina number of conduit mare profile. I don’t usually consider any horse that falls below 13 (although the trend has been shifting over the years so I will consider a 12 if they meet other criteria). One of the reasons I will not play Audible in top spot despite how good he looks. His stamina is at an 11. While that does not mean he can’t win, the last time a horse with that low a stamina number has won on the first Saturday was 1970...fwiw
I was just sharing something that popped out at me. I’m the last person here to talk about pedigrees lol. Well, maybe 18th or 19th :)
Robm robe is the resident expert here on conduit profiles but I believe he’s trying to take the year off. It sounds like you’re on the right track tho.
Robm* not sure where the robe came from lol