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Now for the impossible.....predicted order of finish!   Triple Crown

Started 5/1/18 by princeofdoc; 3619 views.
In reply toRe: msg 22

From: Oldbettowin


We doing this for the Belmont?  Fun going back and reading these lol.

1. Blended Citizen

2. Tenfold

3. Gronkowski

4. Vino Rosso

5. Bravazo

6. Restoring Hope

7. Hofburg

8. Justify

9. Free Drop Billy

10. Noble Indy




1. Hofburg - Playing the role of Birdstone in this year's rendition......
2. Justify - So close! Valiant in defeat!
3. Tenfold - Wins his own personal battle with Bravazo this time
4. Bravazo - Out performs my previous expectations for the TC
5. Blended Citizen - A notch below
6. Vino Rosso - Thought he put it together in the Wood, but....
7. Restoring Hope - No hope!
8. Free Drop Billy - Hope Billy doesn't drop from exhaustion
9. Noble Indy - Nobly tries to wear down Justify, and pays the price!
10. Gronkowski - Jockey takes care of his horse, to fight another day back home


From: DogsUp


Hoffy was 20/1 ML  and a Maiden winner of one, when (d) latched on to him as 'Delta of the race' to finish behind stick out winner Audible in G1 Florida Derby. 9/1 final odds.

Our boy, Catholic Boy had a bad day in that one and has gone on last week to show just that and 'on turf. The FlDerby had two, a 116-1 and 117-1 runners in a 9 horse field. Nine mind us! Math says with CBoy running poorly and 2 impossibles who happened to be barned up at Gulfstream Pk 

yields a prohibitive fav that won, Audible, about 6 total to do something. And in a pointski for the Kentucky Derby no less.

So I'm going with Hoffy to not be Always Ready for the long ball trek, further was loading gate bad boy, in prior. Trainer nearly always wins a race on his birthday, Saturday is not the day.

Irad will have to steady the one not always ready. More than twice will not suffice. Odds make me squint and looks like a role of the dice. Likely to run out. Nice!

  • Edited June 6, 2018 10:50 am  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 25

From: Wintertrian


excellent article on pace strategies and energy distribution in the Belmont:  speed horses don't win this thing, those who can carefully ration energy do



SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G


Not to be willfully contrary but the author says it's more about pace than distance & I disagree with that since in all races of every stripe, pace & distance are strongly interrelated.  Obvious.

Why is 12 furlongs different except for the fact that the distance is outside the scope of most entrants?

Even in a sprint, the winner is the horse who rations his speed best over the distance from gate to wire.  Energy distribution over any distance, impacted by pace, is the key to every race, no?

When is that not true?  Even lone speed, a very potent winning edge, when it goes too fast, gets caught.  I'm searching the my brain for an exception.

Ah, the only thing that might upset that interrelation is when a horse has a major class edge & can beat lesser without his or her best energy distribution.  Just my opinion, WT.  The article was interesting to read.


From: GamblingMel


Great descriptions!!


From: GamblingMel


Thanks for this; will read now.



My gut feeling led me to this:

1. Hofburg

2. Justify

3. Bravazo

4. Blended Citizen

5. Vino Rosso

6. Tenfold

7. Noble Indy

8. Restoring Hope

9. Free Drop Billy

10. Gronkowski


From: fivestaryak


Too bad they don't offer that bet; if I knew the connections didn't install 'ease' buttons when they had no hope, I'd bet a couple bucks on your list.