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Belmont Stakes   Triple Crown

Started May-20 by runforest; 5275 views.
runforest

From: runforest

May-20

Latest Odds

Here are the preliminary 2018 Belmont Stakes odds from US Racing:

Justify 10/13
Audible 4/1
Good Magic 5/1
My Boy Jack 8/1
Hofburg 9/1
Blended Citizen 12/1
Vino Roso 16/1
Solomini 25/1
Enticed 33/1
Machismo 33/1
Instilled Regard 33/1
Gronkowski 33/1
Firenze Fire 50/1

  • Edited May 20, 2018 6:33 pm  by  runforest
In reply toRe: msg 1
TexSquared

From: TexSquared

May-21

Don't bother copy-pasting odds,  just bookmark this site:

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/international/belmont-stakes/winner

Very useful for all sports not just racing.  All bookies bet among themselves to even out the risk so eventually they all have close to the same odds for each outcome. 

runforest

From: runforest

May-21

Very solid bro ... thank you !!!!

TexSquared

From: TexSquared

May-21

And looks like the place you copied from has bad odds on Justify.  Bet with the Euros and (as of right now) you can get 6-5 or 5-4 on him, while that other place has him at odds-on.   

In reply toRe: msg 1
runforest

From: runforest

May-21

Looking at Audible ...in the Conduit Mare Profile ....his Stamina Number is 11 ... probably don't matter that much but  last 8 years ...as long as I've gone back so far ... no Winner had a Stamina Number lower than last year's winner Tapwrit Stamina # 12 .... 

No horse placed or showed as well ... with a Stamina # lower than 12 in the last 8 years ... So that's 24 Spots ..win , place , show ...that have had a Stamina Number of at least 12 .... 

In 2016 Governor Charlie finished 4th with a Stamina # 11 .... just an fyi ... 

Not a toss for me ...just something I noticed .... 

also noticed 

Hofburg can win the Belmont here but no horse that finished in the Top 4 spots in the Belmont had any AP Indy in their linebreeding in the last 8 Years ??? 

You guys that  know anything about linebreeding ...please help me out ... does that matter much when going distances of the Belmont ? 

I take it AP Indy is not known for distances and doing well ? Unsure ? 

  • Edited May 21, 2018 5:02 pm  by  runforest
Julz1127

From: Julz1127

May-21

Not sure about linebreeding but Indy won the Belmont and sired tapit who  I believe won 3 out of the last 4 Belmont’s.  I’m on Hofburg breeding wise.  I also look for horses with a dosage of 3.00 or under.  According to Dr. Romans site,  a large percentage of winners had a dosage of 3 or under. 

runforest

From: runforest

May-21

Well that makes me feel better about Hofburg .... Personally ...I think he has a huge shot at winning !!!

Julz1127

From: Julz1127

May-21

I think so as well.  His pedigree suits well. Broodmare is Touch Gold who also won the Belmont.  His bottom line includes Slew, buck passer, AP Indy, and the conduit dazzling.  A troubled trip in the derby and finished very well.  All a recipe for a good showing in the Belmont.   He can run em down like Creator got Destin at the wire.  Only concern is if they let Justify lope around the track like they did Pharoah.   

runforest

From: runforest

May-21

I like it bro .... He will be in my gimmicks , for sure ... Thank you for sharing your knowledge ...

DogsUpBigE

From: DogsUpBigE

May-22

Assuming and arguably the longest race these colts will ever run. And it could be said that  some jockeys are more skilled/prepared at this distance and more familiar with this specific mile and a half unique oval.

A jockey described above can conserve two to perhaps 3/four seconds (not make the runner that faster) at the distance and add jockey exposure as a regular rider at Belmont Park:

If this year, the year of Apollo, the #11 Stamina described above dips downward and 'that one' hits the board it will very likely be to above.

Concerning the #11; one must ask what the number of runners in a Bella Stakes race did or did not have the delta number 11....those with above and below.

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