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The Belmont & The Big Question   Triple Crown

Started May-21 by SameSteve G; 9187 views.
SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

May-21

Does Justify win The Triple Crown?

Of course, there is time to sort things out & to see what happens until the fateful day.

Does the arduous schedule of races in which Justify has competed (finally) take their toll?  There were some who thought that would be the case in the KD & he rolled.  There wasn't much play against in The Preakness & for good reason, I'd say.

I'll be trying to beat him in The Belmont but I certainly will not underestimate this big boy.  The Belmont is a galloper's race & Justify has a high cruising speed - a major point in his favor to gallop around Big Sandy & win this thing.  Ho-hum, another TC for Baffert.  However, who'd be a more deserving rider than Mike Smith?

Or, did Bravazo & Tenfold tip their hands in The Preakness that more ground would be to their liking?  Perhaps that's not the case if they have to run their eyeballs out to try to catch J.

Or, the new shooters?  A colt like Audible, for example.  Or, Hoffy.  Is Gronk coming over??  When his connections pulled him from The KD, they said they were eyeing the Belmont.  Huge price.  :)

I hope we get a nice full field.  

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-21

I'll be trying to beat him, probably with Hofburg or another derby runner that skipped the Preakness.  Its hard to tell with all the slop we've had but he appears to be in declining form to me.  

If the Preskness had been 10f instead of 9 1/2 I think he would have been caught but of course had it been 10f then Smith might have ridden him a little differently.  I wouldn't be averse to another TC but hoping to see him earn it--with a full field and without the mud.

Let us know if Giacomo starts up with the hairball again!

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

May-21

No doubt he has been the best of this crop.  I mentioned after the KD that there may have been some inside bias just like last year in the  KD on  the off track.  7-6-5 being WPS.    Some thinking he may have regressed in Preakness, but I am wondering if, while being better, he may not be that much better as some improved with more equitable paths.  

I am hearing some early buzz on Audible.  Hofburg, who upon pulling up his pedigree for the first time, immediately I saw Belmont. Of course everyone is saying that, and most are just saying it due to Tapit as the sire, but his BM is loaded which is why I initially thought that he was loaded.    He is lightly raced, I looked back a handful of years and do see Tonalist who was just as lightly raced and somewhat similar, one attempt at two, broke maiden in 3yo debut....Thing is, if he comes have to take him serious, Mott will not send unless he thinks he is good.  Mott sent  out Drosselmeyer, not sure how many others he has sent.  

I may be looking for some/one further out in the KD, thinking/hoping they may have been disguised out there and may be better price.   Hofburg will be pounded, could do it, could be wiseguy, but I do hope they send.  Will also play against Audible and hope he comes as well.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

May-21

As I have said since the preps, I like Audible very, very much. I believe that he and Hofburg ran huge races in the Derby when you consider all the problems they encountered. I still need to see them against Justify where all have the opportunity to run their race. I love Justify. I think he is a beast to have overcome so much riding against him. That being said, I believe that his two gut busting efforts, having so little preparation, has got to catch up with him at some point. The 12f Belmont is a devil of a race under normal circumstances, much less these which he must face. yes, I agree, he is built for it, and his long striding style is similar to some of the greats that have blown away their opposition in past Belmonts. It wouldn't surprise me if he did the same, but I am betting against it due to the low odds he will offer.

Just as an aside, someone mentioned somewhere, that since Sir Barton, the TC winner has alternated between chestnuts and bays. In my lifetime I have seen Secretariat(chestnut), Seattle Slew(bay), Affirmed(chestnut), and American Pharoah(bay). Hmmmm! Maybe I shouldn't try to beat Justify after all. What an angle! LOL

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

May-21

I think a lot depends on how one interprets the Preakness in regard to form regression.  Justify & a tough Good Magic dueled for close to a mile (somewhere around 1:30ish).  Stressful racing. Both Bravazo & Tenfold were sitting off that; it's not as though they came from further off & closed.  Those further back were doomed by the way the track was playing all day.  

Interestingly enough, nobody went past J. on the gallop out.

I agree that the slop complicates the issue.  However, given the dynamics of that race, I don't see a regression despite the declining speed fig.  I watched a vid this morning of his return home yesterday & he looked darn good, IMO.

When you stop & think what he's pulled off to date it is rather amazing.  Those of us trying to beat him have to hang our hat on all that racing catching up to him in less than 3 weeks.

I do plan, as I did in the KD, to have a saver using him, though.  (in case this beast moves forward!)

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

May-21

Justify was in a better path than Magic but both Bravazo & Tenfold were closer to the crown & may have been carried (they were never that far back anyway).

I agree that if Hof. is in, Bill thinks he's good to go.  I hadn't thought about Tonalist.  Pretty neat.

I wonder about the Pan winner, Blended Citizen, as well.  I do believe he's a stretched out miler that found the one turn 9 f. PP within reach.  I don't think 12 furlongs suits.

Audible's a nice horse but I'm going against him, as well.  (unless he gets a special marinara from TAP, I think 12 f. is a bridge too far)

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

May-21

Hell of an angle!  :)

Price is the kicker for sure.  It always is, Rae.

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

May-21

speaking of color, I just went and checked colors, the last two years were grey. Prior to that back to 1977, I did not see a grey.  Found something written about greys, but they were pretty vague, but the poster mentioned "Belmar and Native Dancer were the greys, and High Echelon was the roan"  I am not quite sure if they were meaning those were the only ones for Belmont at the time of the writing.

Prior to the recent two greys, four bays, then prior 3 chestnuts, then 1br.  We due for a chestnut? brown?  Not sure if there will be a grey in this year.

  • Edited May 21, 2018 3:57 pm  by  PISTOL9
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

May-21

Well the person that brought it up, was only talking about the TC winners. I don't know if any pattern shows up otherwise other than there have been no grey TC winners. I guess Spectacular Bid and Silver Charm were doomed from the start.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

May-21

Audible's a nice horse but I'm going against him, as well

You may not have to, as we once again encounter the "common ownership" issue!

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