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Belmont Stks DogsUp Delta Details   Triple Crown

Started 5/21/18 by DogsUpBigE; 14263 views.



Enticed is a horse I didn't like for the Derby. I commented at the time that he doesn't seem to like being in close quarters. I saw that in a couple of his losses. However, in a small field, on a track with those sweeping turns, he could be very effective. He is probably the biggest of the horses that ran in the Derby, even taller than Justify. Some of the biggest blowout wins were accomplished by large horses like Secretariat, Risen Star, Easy Goer, and Point Given to name a few off the top of my head.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G


I doubt Enticed can win but I do think he's live for a piece of the action unless, of course, what I thought at the end of The Wood comes to pass & the distance will be his undoing.  I'm leaning towards using him at this stage.

I made a mistake when Tonalist won by short-changing him out of the Peter Pan & I don't want to do that again with Blended Citizen.  I'm leaving him in the mix even though my visual impression was that he didn't look like he wanted 3 more furlongs when he won the PP.

Smarty's breakdown has influenced me to keep him in at this stage.




Well since I have not done the immense amount of pedigree work done by others on this forum, I tend to look more closely at the individual horses, attempting to predict their potential performance, based mostly(not entirely) on their past performances. On the breeding side of things, I look at the fact that his dam, It's Tricky, was Grade 1 placed at 10f, her sire, Mineshaft, won at 10f, and his sire, AP Indy, won at 12f. Enticed's sire, Medaglia D'Oro, was second in the Belmont. That's enough for me to take him seriously, even for the win should Justify tank.


From: smartyslew


SameSteve G said:

Smarty's breakdown has influenced me to keep him in at this stage.

I know you know this is cmp data that's  helpful for some to use and not 

a stand alone data.

I was concerned with the stamina number 12 or better for the winner or the top 4 finishers

touted on here and my concern is using the right number and the most important part

is how many from the group that Qualify for this angle.

i'm not done with all of them , if we have 10 entrants and 9 qualify for the angle it doesn't mean 

that much to pick the right 4. That stamina number is only part of the cmp angles

and i know many cmp angles for the Belmont and i'll add some tidbits that could help.

I know what you are thinking, are the contenders that look positive getting the same feed as Justify or audible

and you can't cap drugs.because of that all angles performance or pedigree that say who the top 4 

should be, doesn't mean its a level playing field.

you will never know what you don't know.. lol , give Giacomo my love

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G


smartyslew said:

you will never know what you don't know

Ain't that the truth.  Like we've been saying for a long time, you can't handicap the special marinara, so the only way to play is to play as though everything is on the square.


From: DogsUp


Looks like an audible was called on Audible. Todd actually has a longer relationship with Winstar than Baffert. It is what it is. And surprising! No speculations! 

The only players saying I can come up with (hmmm sounds like speculation~ee~ onknee) is: When there's a lot of money on the table, strange things happen. "

So Doggie-boy will continue now not to Overanalyze and stay Street Smart.

Said  in  Chrome Belmont Stakes ~ even money go to window, not ...not.

YouTube vid of Justy arriving to his digs apres Preky.... Robusto!

Bob debating one work or two.

In reply toRe: msg 1

From: DogsUp


Pondered the chances of new jock Mario winning his 2 nd Kentucky Derby in a row, " that be"  I'll Have Another in his first and I liked Nyquist to win, so I went with it. Two in a row of two mounts.

Did have a saver winner take all  ticket in Am.Ph. Belmont Stks. should it not be his day.

Yet, had a pick 4 when An Ph lost his summer derby, Spa Travers. Bob said he personally didn't want to go to Spa.

Was wrong when I didn't think the math chances of 6 fav Derby runners winning the deal.

Now with two leggings of Tri Cw and one to go chances of one so soon as Big Red and Seattle Slew.

DID / but didn't / want to change my lobster trap ticket as the rain and mud perculated coming  into the Preak race and favorites ran like chalkville in first 10 races.

So will the peeps see another Secretariat/Seattle Slew close together TCs  for the record book.

Or, back to the start of a long drought and close but no cigars. Or the start of many. 

One thing for sure, nearly,  the one shot Derby Day player is doomed sometime in the next 4 Dbys in the out of ten 10 chances calculation. That M/L and betting  fav wins.

  • Edited May 25, 2018 10:18 pm  by  DogsUp

From: Wintertrian


RAESFAN said...

However, in a small field, on a track with those sweeping turns, he could be very effective.

You mean w/out Vino Rosso herding him to the rail......yeah.   


From: Wintertrian


DogsUpBigE said...


Oxbow and Paynter were produced by full sisters to Tiznow, but Bravazo comes from a different female line.

Since you were / are a big fan of Lookin at Lee I guess you already know that Blended Citizen is a half-brother to Lookin at Lee


From: Oldbettowin


And Lee’s Daddy Lucky is Gronk’s broodmare sire :P