This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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Yes, had the Super, and lost the (2 ticket constructions) $100 pk 4 play. third leg into bel stks. Kinda regret Dutching the Belmont Stakes in my backup ticket. One look at Justify is enough. TC in the bag.
Same jockey beat me, Edgar Prado surprised back with Run Happy leg @ Saratoga (used 6 runners in that one) and Am. Pharoah lost Travers in last leg and had used Keen Ice in the finale leg.
Went #1with Vino/All/All ..then vino in third and 4,th slot and he got up for fourth. Hoping that Hofburg wouldn't be in it, but surprised that colt that won his last and likes to win, Bronk, got second.
As predicted, winner would be there @ mile&quarter, next 3 behind would finish in bottom of 2nd, 3rd and 4th.
The above play @ .10. Was 3 tickets @ 5.60 each with a all field buffet and paid $105.
Would have paid about same with Hoofy out and Tenfold in. Ever so slightly. (d)
I had the superfecta and trifecta but didn't have my phone so couldn't photo it for proof............I only played it for 0.30 since I stacked a lot of horses to get it. LOL
Didn't pay well because my wager construction sucked.
BTW guys, one of my angles that I made up after following BEL for many years, was the one about purchase price and/or homebred. Every horse in the superfecta was either a homebred or cost over $100K at auction. Gronk was a special case, as yearling he was too cheap but then he went for $404K at 2 so I included him in ITM potential
Blended Cit - $52K
Noble Indy $45K
Gronk 67,400 yearling----then $404K at 2 years old
Vino Rosso $410K
Free Drop Billy $200K
Bravazo - homebred
Tenfold - homebred
Restoring Hope - homebred
Before we wind up the Belmont talk, I want to give a little "shout out" to Hofburg. Not a lot of talk about him since the race. He didn't exactly embarrass himself in the Belmont. Keep in mind he has run one less race than Justify, with his first coming last September. The Belmont was only his fourth start this year. Not too long ago horses routinely prepped three times in their sophomore year, before the Derby. He will be heard from!
Agreed. He was 2-3 lengths farther back than Mott wanted him to be, then made a four wide move on the turn which doesn't fly at Belmont.
Yes, not at 12 furlongs unless there's a collapse up front. In one turn races, it often works especially if the outside is good.
IMO ...when Hofberg was 20/1M/L and went off 9/1in Florida Derby against prohibitive fav and winner Audible (d) penned him the Delta runner in 9 horse field and 2 runners in that field were locally bunked in stalls there at final getting odds of +114'~1.
Give him a surface mudski & bumpkski trip Rose run at Derby time. Alibi.
Ran much better than I thought he would In Belmont run for the Carnations.
Obviously must skip a mile and an eighth Haskell where high weight is 122 perhaps.
Come Travers, mile & quarter and perhaps a purse bump to $1.6 to 2 mil~ yon for Triple Crown winner in it.
Predict the speed, pace and jockey jujitsu too much. One redeeming factor is Irad the jock is the complete NYRA circuit man.
Will emulate last year's Delta Lookin At Lee. Tailed off.
If... they do not run Hoffy til the very late August Travers, then where?
And then if, how much rest. Perhaps.. there is a race Hask day or early Spa 2018.
He could surprise, but there is a lot of $ on the table. A win now against the champ is not so much a loss of gaining a TC individual race win on one's colt resume.
Irad might just make a difference, but the Trav. purse let alone, small t trumps beating the ?undefeated colt that Spa Mid~ Summer Derby race..Travers.
Interesting riff, Dogs.
Mott's creative & can think outside the box. I'm not as sure as you are that Irad is a good fit for this horse. Had to steady twice briefly on the backstretch. Irad may be a little too aggressive for Hoffy.
Not questioning Irad's skills...just the fit.
Horse is a natural closer with a nice turn of foot . Not a one-paced plodder. Heck, I'd try him on the turf for an experiment over the summer & see what the horse tells me. At the worst, puts some conditioning in & then goes turf to back to dirt. Or, he shows that's his surface.
Heck, I'd try him on the turf for an experiment over the summer & see what the horse tells me.
We are of the same mind on that one. Just thinking that when I was posting about him.
The other option, aside from staying the course at the classic distances is to try shortening him up on dirt where the early pace is usually snappy & would be a nice set up for his late run. Could actually amplify it.
Sometimes the run style & the horse on the ground eclipses what we see in the breeding.
BTW, I have a ton of respect for Mott so all I'm doing is thinking out loud here in the cyber wilderness. Little armchair trainer action. :)