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belmont stakes contenders updated conduit   Triple Crown

Started May-22 by smartyslew; 3854 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-22

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I'll do these contenders as i have time and it takes time for each

This is from Bill lathrop and some of you know i was one of the 20 to receive his last book

and i have his permission to use his data and i have been using his info on here since 2006 ( Cindys Forums)

The pedigree site is not updated ,the  last year was 2011, also the GSV numbers they use are out dated on that site

i have done audible and he is a freak with the conduits and chefs  placement in his pedigree
i wouldn't count him out becauce of the placement of Princequillo in his pedigree bred to Nasrullah line nick
up the middle powerful and with a Mahmoud daughter, the placements of strong female families throught his ped.. 

he has no chefs in 1st 4  generations on his sire side and only 3 in his 4th generation on the dam side

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AUDIBLE:  old profile   Conduit Mare Profile = 7-7-8-8-3   Speed = 14   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.32   Triads = 22-23-19

ACTUAL Profile   :                                              7-7-7-5-2  speed =14   stamina= 7 index= 1.75 triads= 21-19-14

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Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-22

Thank you so much for doing this!

 

as for audible being a freak, he better be, because not only does he fail on CMP angles, he fails in sire side dosage angles (DI, CD, no professional pooints), on Sire BMS angles, and Dam BMS angles.  

One would really have to *believe* in this horse to choose him for the win, IMHO.  

Julz1127

From: Julz1127

May-22

Are you able to provide info on Hofburg??

In reply toRe: msg 2
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-22

w/out Mr.Lathrop or Dr. Roman doing updates, and George Smith doing GSVs, I sense that it will be an increasingly difficult task to have information we will be able to use.  Most of us are getting older as they are too. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-22

here is where it gets tricky for belmont winners at the time they were  3 yr olds
some have stamina numbers lower than 12, like Tapwrit, Creator.

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Tapwrit   cmp profile  11-3--3-5-6  speed  14, stamina 11 index 1.40-

--

creator   cmp profile   7-6-3-6-5  speed 13 stamina 11, index 1.21

--

American Pharoah    8-4-3-10-2 speed 12  stamina 12 index 1.35

--

Tonalist                      10-4-0-4-11  speed 14 stamina 15  index .92

--

you still need to carry speed a distance of ground and having some speed helps most years to get 12 furlongs

or be a grinder like drosselmeyer. am pharoah is a freak with the B at 8 and the P at 2 off set with a 12/12 s/s

but his s/s index at 1.35 and help from his S number of 10.

Not a stand alone angle.


 

In reply toRe: msg 5
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-22

Audible     cmp      7-7-7-5-2  speed =14   stamina= 7 index= 1.75 triads= 21-19-14

Justify      cmp       10-3-4-6-7 speed 13   stamina 13   index 1.13,  triads 17-13-17   ( that is positive)

hofburg  cmp      12-4-1-5-10 speed 16  stamina15  index   1.12 triads 17-10-16  (high in the wings B & P) balance

Julz1127

From: Julz1127

May-22

Thanks so much for the info

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-22

smartyslew said...

Justify      cmp       10-3-4-6-7 speed 13   stamina 13   index 1.13,  triads 17-13-17   ( that is positive)

Perfectly balanced profile.  Very nice
 

Hofburg's, too   My question is, given the kind of high class speed Justify has, I am not sure Hofburg can run other horses down in the stretch  Creator did to Destin in the stretch?  We've got Bravazo, Justify, Core Beliefs (maybe) Tenfold and Audible who seem faster than he is...I don't particularly love closers in the BEL 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-22

thats  very important  and as you know i love hofburgs pedigree, saying that he has the wrong style

and i would like it very much if he was a forwardly placed style runner.

midnight lute had to be a sprinter because of his style, not his pedigree imho.

hofburg hasn't woke up yet imo. maybe he will at 12 f, he looked lost inside the 1/8 pole in last.

In reply toRe: msg 9
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-22

Audible     cmp      7-7-7-5-2  speed =14   stamina= 7 index= 1.75 triads= 21-19-14

Justify      cmp       10-3-4-6-7 speed 13   stamina 13   index 1.13,  triads 17-13-17   ( that is positive)

hofburg  cmp      12-4-1-5-10 speed 16  stamina15  index   1.12 triads 17-10-16  (high in the wings B & P) balance

----

bravazo  cmp     6-3-4-6-6  speed 9  stamina  12  index .86  triads  13-13-16

-

tenfold   cmp   7-5-2-5-6  speed 12 stamina 11  index 1.11  triads 14-12-13

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