This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
Latest Oct-19 by DogsUp
Latest 6/16/18 by Oldbettowin
Latest Oct-11 by ChiefsCrown
Latest Oct-10 by Plus2lbs
Latest Oct-6 by Plus2lbs
Latest Oct-2 by horseman1985
Latest Sep-28 by TexSquared
Latest Sep-22 by DogsUp
i was on unbridled in the tc series and the Classic, i liked him a lot and i didn't know squat
for those interested there are only 2 contenders so far on the probs
that have a cmp conduit that has won the belmont
thats from 14 probs or maybe's that i'm looking at
Justify 1h-noontime 1954 high gun CS classification
bandua 8c cherokee rose 1962 jaipur BS classification
What conduit classifications are best for the BEL?
Interesting thing I noticed about the mare's profile (cmp) for Gronkowski and Restoring Hope, and to some extent, Hofburg as well is that they separate into 2 different paths. What is difficult to figure out is, comparing it to their dosage profile (sire) which side cancels out what, and which they will actually use in a race.....and if that depends on the distance or not.
I knew Free Drop Billy could get the distance with his 17 classic points from his sire, then people would see those "4's in his B&I and say "he's not fast enough", but he's got PLENTY of speed from his mare's side as shown in the CMP profile. He just hasn't been called on much to use it. So maybe it only kicks in at certain distances?
This is why just looking at sire side or just dam side doesn't work........it's the combination that makes it possible for horse to do what it does.
i didn't do the cmp stamina number again this year.
some would add that number to the horses cd number and divide by 2 or use the number of that total.
i have in the past and i know you have seen it before add the cmp index number and the cd together for distance.
and divide by 2 . average below 1.00 was good. today with these numbers maybe a little higher.
toss the highest number for the win.
the stamina formula number had a average of .79 for derby winners.
i can't remember the belmont number .
using the dosage points or looking for classicity for 0-0 stamina pts is different.
use the cd and cmp index number together it is better than the cmp and dosage together
i found out the hard way with research.
free drop billy BS cmp 10-4-0-10-5 speed 14 stamina 15 index 1.20
his b is a 10 and his p is 5 with that 14/15 looks like balance the formula for the index is real high because of his B
that alone is a high index for the belmont winner. Check the BICSP for the break down.
restoring hope B cmp 10-5-0-6-5 speed 15 stamina 11 index 1.56
1.56 index i think would be a new record both of these with the 0 in the middle (C) are mostly sprinters
justify B is higher than his p but hes a front runner and has carried his speed 10f
and is the only one in the field with a winning cmp conduit for the belmont.
had to stop , i erased justify by accident and couldn't remember it. J
ustify cmp 10-3-4-6-7 speed 13 stamina 13 index 1.13, triads 17-13-17 ( that is positive) very balanced
i think i said 1.56 index i think would be a new record both of these with the 0 in the middle (C) are mostly sprinter
i thought i sent you the bc sprint data back in the day when we were doing the bc races and that was long time ago.
you said as I don't see how that, plus his DI = 1.74 CD = 0.42 indicates a sprinter? i never said anything like that,
did you get the email i sent you about free drop billy.