Horse Racing Forum

Hosted by Cindy Dulay (CindyDulay)

This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.

  • 374
    MEMBERS
  • 20290
    MESSAGES
  • 2
    POSTS TODAY

Discussions

belmont stakes contenders updated conduit   Triple Crown

Started 5/22/18 by smartyslew; 5483 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/22/18

here is where it gets tricky for belmont winners at the time they were  3 yr olds
some have stamina numbers lower than 12, like Tapwrit, Creator.

----------

Tapwrit   cmp profile  11-3--3-5-6  speed  14, stamina 11 index 1.40-

--

creator   cmp profile   7-6-3-6-5  speed 13 stamina 11, index 1.21

--

American Pharoah    8-4-3-10-2 speed 12  stamina 12 index 1.35

--

Tonalist                      10-4-0-4-11  speed 14 stamina 15  index .92

--

you still need to carry speed a distance of ground and having some speed helps most years to get 12 furlongs

or be a grinder like drosselmeyer. am pharoah is a freak with the B at 8 and the P at 2 off set with a 12/12 s/s

but his s/s index at 1.35 and help from his S number of 10.

Not a stand alone angle.


 

In reply toRe: msg 5
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/22/18

Audible     cmp      7-7-7-5-2  speed =14   stamina= 7 index= 1.75 triads= 21-19-14

Justify      cmp       10-3-4-6-7 speed 13   stamina 13   index 1.13,  triads 17-13-17   ( that is positive)

hofburg  cmp      12-4-1-5-10 speed 16  stamina15  index   1.12 triads 17-10-16  (high in the wings B & P) balance

Julz1127

From: Julz1127

5/22/18

Thanks so much for the info

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

5/22/18

smartyslew said...

Justify      cmp       10-3-4-6-7 speed 13   stamina 13   index 1.13,  triads 17-13-17   ( that is positive)

Perfectly balanced profile.  Very nice
 

Hofburg's, too   My question is, given the kind of high class speed Justify has, I am not sure Hofburg can run other horses down in the stretch  Creator did to Destin in the stretch?  We've got Bravazo, Justify, Core Beliefs (maybe) Tenfold and Audible who seem faster than he is...I don't particularly love closers in the BEL 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/22/18

thats  very important  and as you know i love hofburgs pedigree, saying that he has the wrong style

and i would like it very much if he was a forwardly placed style runner.

midnight lute had to be a sprinter because of his style, not his pedigree imho.

hofburg hasn't woke up yet imo. maybe he will at 12 f, he looked lost inside the 1/8 pole in last.

In reply toRe: msg 9
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/22/18

Audible     cmp      7-7-7-5-2  speed =14   stamina= 7 index= 1.75 triads= 21-19-14

Justify      cmp       10-3-4-6-7 speed 13   stamina 13   index 1.13,  triads 17-13-17   ( that is positive)

hofburg  cmp      12-4-1-5-10 speed 16  stamina15  index   1.12 triads 17-10-16  (high in the wings B & P) balance

----

bravazo  cmp     6-3-4-6-6  speed 9  stamina  12  index .86  triads  13-13-16

-

tenfold   cmp   7-5-2-5-6  speed 12 stamina 11  index 1.11  triads 14-12-13

-

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

5/23/18

Agree 100%.....we'll see what Mott does with him in training leading up to the race

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

5/23/18

If Mott was not the trainer, I am wondering if people would still be high on Hofburg.  

I feel like we just went thru that with Irish War Cry and another highly respected trainer, and said so at the time. 

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

5/23/18

Hoffy IMO is not a seasoned enough runner in Distance G1 to obey and work, comport with seasoned enough jockey Irad who knows the track and the trip and competition.

This is not at a distance where measures can be taken as the trip unfolds. Everybody knows what the other guy/gal has going for them and what likely they can/will do before and in the race. (d)

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/24/18

Audible     cmp      7-7-7-5-2  speed =14   stamina= 7 index= 1.75 triads= 21-19-14

Justify      cmp       10-3-4-6-7 speed 13   stamina 13   index 1.13,  triads 17-13-17   ( that is positive)

hofburg  cmp      12-4-1-5-10 speed 16  stamina15  index   1.12 triads 17-10-16  (high in the wings B & P) balance
----

bravazo  cmp     6-3-4-6-6  speed 9  stamina  12  index .86  triads  13-13-16
_-

tenfold   cmp   7-5-2-5-6  speed 12 stamina 11  index 1.11  triads 14-12-13
_

Blendid citizen  cmp  8-6-3-7-7 speed 14 stamina 14  index 1.04  triads 17-16-17 ( balance & positive)
-

vino rosso   cmp 5-2-5-7-6  speed 7  stamina 13 index .71 triads 12-14-18
_

TOP