Horse Racing Forum

Hosted by Cindy Dulay (CindyDulay)

This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.

  • 310
    MEMBERS
  • 15970
    MESSAGES
  • 25
    POSTS TODAY

Discussions

Meet the Milers   Handicapping

Started May-28 by Plus2lbs; 1548 views.
Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

May-28

G1 Shoemaker Mile..

Would like to say this is one of my strengths..

Turf milers in graded stakes.  We shall see.

I'm expecting a contested pace,  lol..

We've all seen these turf routes crawl along.

"What are these pinhead doing" is the call..

Well I doubt Leparu will have easy sailing here..IMO.

Expect #1 Om to hustle from gate and the #6 Heart to heart to be pressured on the outside from #9 Blackjackcat. 

Right behind,  pushing the leaders is #5 Hunt...2nd of trainers entries,  like going longer, 1st off layout,  could be little rank and put up a fight around the far turn...#3 Pavel,  strong connections and Sire is having a tremendous start at stud,  first time on turf,  in a G1,  not an angle I find appealing. Scratched.

#4 Colonist..impressive last out when closing into same pace scenario  expected today.. hasn't missed a beat on the worktab since last.  Me thinks this one is on the improve and strong connections make this one appealing,  the price adds to the luster.

#2 Bowies Hero,  mild upset in last at 8/1 in Gr1..beat a few in here..distance specialist...barn mate likely to set up for this one..not today says me..

#7 Arms Runner..expensive purchase,  breaks maiden down the hill..?

Nice stakes win and a stretch out to a restricted stakes..showed nothing..put on the shelf for ten months,  1st race back down the hill closes nicely to I.press on his connections to try a GR1...hmmm..2 nice works at SLR for Peter Miller,  who can bring them in at boxcars...worth a look.

Favourite #6 Heart to Heart..fan fav?  Races anywhere any time any distance..

$2 mil..earner..what's not to like..how do you beat this favourite..Pressure..everywhere every time every step

Which sets it up for my choice..

#8 Next Shares...Me thinks he is sitting on a monster effort..Bejarano jumps back on for this G1..race shape sets up just right for him to close into..Bejarano knows how to get them there on the turf....

My plays

W/P #8

Ex 8/1,6,7

Tri

6,7/8/1,6,7,9

Sup

8/6,7/1,4,6,7,9/All

PK4

8/7/4,6,7,11/4

Really..Mt. Vernon.. Walk the dog..

Irish bred on the turf...hmmm

French connection running 1-2...hmmm

"Sacre bleu...

  • Edited May 28, 2018 7:18 pm  by  Plus2lbs
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-28

very nice write up

Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

May-28

Well...not a winner...but nice horse that Next Shares.

Thanks.

Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

Jun-17

Have really been looking forward to the Poker Stakes (G3) today at Belmont.

Fantastic wagering event..

Father's Day 'capping for a winner.

Back later..

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Jun-17

Oscar Performance looks pretty close to a single to me.

Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

Jun-17

That's why they run the races..obviously a top contender from past performance, but on further review, I see some pause for concern and think he could be vulnerable.  I always liked the other Oscar, Oscar Nominated a bit more.

A very salty GR. 3 which has a few new shooters in the graded stakes class, a few competitive at this level, a few off layoffs, and a couple of state breds.

M/L fav, #3 Oscar Performance, highest speed figure last race when he led into the stretch of BC Turf and was swallowed whole by most of the field.  He was neglected on the board after a disappointing run before in the Turf Classic.  Might of been biting too much off distance wise and the cut back today could be preferred.  Has not come off layoff before, firing on all cylinders, but a steady workout tab of dirt and turf looks like he should be ready with no excuses.

#1 Force The Pass

M/L 5/1..I expect the odds too float up here.  Could end up been forgotten on the board and would not be surprised at double digits odds.  

Winner of listed stakes at MP,  1st off year layoff.  Has back class to compete here. Trainer Goldberg is an accomplished conditioner who knows horses.  Having trained this one's mare to an old and competitive age, this one deserves a look.

#2 Vulcans Forge

M/L 12/1..Pletcher and Johnny V...what's not too like about that.

Mostly raced on dirt, a few on turf.  Not accomplished on either surface.  High level allowance horse.  Pletcher seems to trying anything he can to get this one a graded score.  Puts JV up and maybe some more magic can happen..possible.

#3 Oscar Performance

M/L 5/2..Horse to beat, some say.  Beatable, says me.

#4 Ballagh Rocks

M/L 3/1..steady stream GR.1's, can't seem to break thru at that level. Connections

are very popular and can see his odds staying put.  Won this race last year...deeper field this year, me thinks, and lower placings is his ceiling.

#5 Made You Look

This MTR is one to keep an eye on, Imo. Switch trainers to Chad "NY Turf Stakes" Brown.  Besides BB, the "on fire" trainer in the country.  

Off his last race, win at track and distance, two ticks of course and WR, Brown seems to have a "Big Horse" in the making.

#6 Black Tide

M/L 15/1.. out classed here.  This NY bred will be part of the early pace..but nowhere at the finish.

#7 Voodoo Song

M/L 8/1…another NY bred, but has open class at this level.  3rd off a layoff coming off a win at shorter and fast pace.  Could be spotted just right by trainer Linda Rice, very underated but has fared well in region dominated by big names.

Would not surprise me.

#8 Fire Away

M/L 4/1..coming in off two race winning streak, this Phipp's home bred is going in the right direction, half-brother to Mr.Speaker, a millionaire turf performer,. Shug has this horse right and should be coming late to get another picture taken.

With all that being said, the only horse I put a line through is #6 Black Tide. Now all rush to the window and bet him to win. LOL.

Be back with my "look" later.

Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

Jun-17

New course record in turf Sprint 106.74..flying.

I'm expecting a fast pace in this GR 3 today, and possibly a record.

Lots of speed and the break is of utmost importance for my pick.

I'm expecting a thrilling stretch duel with a blanket finish..I'm getting real excited.

Hope it's not a let down.

  • Edited June 17, 2018 3:01 pm  by  Plus2lbs
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Jun-17

Good comments, but I must have missed your pick?

Plus2lbs

From: Plus2lbs

Jun-17

Personnally, I like to wait and see post parade at least..I have my idea of who my pick will be, just like to see the board .

Race is so salty..need all my pointers.

  • Edited June 17, 2018 4:01 pm  by  Plus2lbs
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Jun-17

When I can I like to see them too.  I can never tell much from the paddock but once they're on the track I like to see them "hugging" the outrider's horse, with their head over their neck, maybe nipping at them a bit--seems like that's usually a sign that they're ready to run a good race.  

TOP