This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
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Chad (Turf Stakes) Brown has two entered here, #1 Data Dependent and #7 Altea.
#1 Data Dependant..G3 placed as 2yo, beaten fav next out in a G3 first start as 3yo.
Been racing at this level downstate with no success..enters off a steady stream of works.
More Than Ready filly has had multiple tries at this surface/ distance.
Castellano knows the filly and should be primed for a best effort.
Don't believe her best gets it done.
#7 Altea..m/l fav at 5/2..lukewarm, if you ask me..will more than likely go to evens or less.
Wide sweeping move in last, G3, going 1 1/16, could not sustain after hitting the front..has had chances, but to me, she hasn't ran to expectations.
#4 Emmy Performance...Amerman Racing homebed is half, to the unfortunate Oscar Performance and one of my fav's, Oscar Nominated.
Cuts back from last and with the blazing closing speed in the family, should be flying late..m/l of 8/1 seems generous to me..feel 5/1 or less at post time. Could have a major say in the outcome.
#9 Cool Beans..great name. Placed 1st thru disqualification..cool beans..but has never won a race. Always runs her race..should get a run for your money at close to m/l of 9/2. Cut back in distance might help her hold on..depends if other jocks are up for it..I think she gets swamped in the final 1/16th
Playing the Grand Slam here R5 into the feature R8..need to come in top 3 the first 3 races and hit the last.
Starts here with #1 Thatcher St...can Leparoo go for two?
Hope so..top 3 will do. That's the Leparoo I knew..
Anyway, back to the feature .
Looks like turf course has really dried out..early speed seems to be holding on.
#2 Hail..Mott trained..first time turf..half to another fav of mine Close Hatches..
FF oozes class..running long on dirt, on class alone..me thinks will like the surface/ distance switch..by Tapit, who has been known to get some pretty good turf milers..m/l of 15/1 suggests no hope here..I disagree.
#3 Katie Cruel.. Graham Motion trained filly. Competitive at lower level in Ireland over soft going. 1st time lasix and gets Jose Ortiz up..fast works down at Fair Hill.
Motion not having a good meet but this one seems well meant..ground could be her undoing..I'll watch one.
#6 Quivery..long layoff..trainer not a household name but Johnny V hops up and that's always a plus ...strong works..big drop in class..1st time lasix and gets in light..8/1 m/l seems generous..dangerous.
#8 Subtle Step..Shug is on fire this meet..don't think this horse can compete here. Keenland grad and maiden winner..coming off layoff..could be a setup for next out back at keenland..beat me says I.
Will watch the tote board for help..
Well here's my take..
Money coming on the #3..
I think gonna be hot, contested pace..hope to see the Tapit flying late.
Getting sick of these walk the dog turf races in NY..
Come on man..lone speed and no one wants to pressure on a slow pace..
Brrrr. Cool Beans. Like you said, unchallenged lone speed.
No excuses whatsoever for Sister Sunday. So flat in the drive had the ants ducking.
Let's pick up where we left off,
Back with #8 Divisidero 11/1..
Ran to the odds..
Congrats to the winner, fine comeback.
Full, competitive field..who will jump up and take this prestigious GR.1.
Many in here I have spoken of this year..a few winners, more also rans. Nice to see them coming together to see who is the best of the best ...who's turn is it today?
One I have liked early is my choice to get the prize..Next Shares.
ML 15/1..I think is going to float up in this field of better known runners..Ran against m/l favourite Heart To Heart out West and had a bit of bother in the lane, still ran with aplomb and came up short. After a minor freshening, came back and won impressive 3rd of the layoff and looks to my eyes to be full of confidence heading into this race. The step up in class is justified.
New jockey Tyler Gaffalione knows how to get to the wire first and I have faith in his abilities for sure.
Although this is probably the toughest mile contest in N.A. this year, me thinks, and quite a few could win, I wouldnt be surprised if Next Shares jumps up and comes flying late the get the honors.
Good luck to those playing.
Mr. Misunderstood was borderline at 12/1 for me (post 12 is tough) but now that he's drifted up to 19-1, I will bet him across the board. He has found the winner's circle 10 out of 14 on the turf. Plus for consistency, plus for running style & I forgive the flat effort at KD in his last. Might be a good tightener, though.
You're #1 has drifted, as you predicted, up to 24/1. I hope one of us hits.
Excellent selection, Plus. :)
Many thanks Steve..
What a day..and what a ride by Tyler Gaffalione..rode the horse with confidence..perfect trip. Like I said in May at the start of this thread..
"Nice horse that Next Shares".
Credit where credit is due, man.
It's a really good feeling to stick with a horse who you know has quality & have it pay off. Sweet.
Watched a few mile races, top ones on my list right now are Lightning Spear and Catapult