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Noble Indy vs Restoring Hope   Triple Crown

Started Jun-1 by Wintertrian; 1326 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-1

Lets say Noble Indy is put in race to help Vino, and Restoring Hope is Baffert's retort, i.e.. horses who instead of keeping Justify busy might keep each other busy instead?

At any rate, even if I got this wrong, who is the better horse?  Both seem to be lacking in stamina, but I'm trying to distinguish between the 2 and come up with an analysis of their strengths and weaknesses.

Thoughts?

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Jun-1

Some of us think you aren't wrong.  We were playing with the idea yesterday.

Put a line through Noble's Derby.  Put a line through Hope's Pat Day Mile. 

Compare the quality of the remaining races each has competed in.  Edge goes to Noble.  Compare the finishes (margins of victory or defeat).  Edge goes to Noble.  Compare figs.  Edge goes to Noble.

Hope has the edge in early pace.  Noble has the edge in late pace.  I think Hope has the edge in recent works ( 7f. work is a tell)

I would give the overall edge on performance to Noble but it appears they could keep one another busy for well over a mile if, in fact, that's the plan.  It is indeed a nice set up for not only Justify, who probably benefits most as the one who gets first crack at them, but aids the others in touch with Justify from behind.  

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

Jun-2

Baffert has had his guys run interference before.  I remember them doing to Shared Belief a couple of times.  I don't see where that applies here as Justify is the top dog in here, there is no Shared Belief.  Can't see restoring hope being able to affect early pace.  Might be just since he is training well at CD.  I'd give RH the edge on pedigree.  Giants has shown up ITM and ff11 as well.  Tapit just getting to bms so no info on him but have to think he will be OK.

On a side note, looking at a race today that has Mississippi and Solomini coupled.  Two different trainers, and owner listed are different, but may be one of those where there are four or so owners of a horse.  With more and more having shared ownership, got to think that happens more often.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Jun-2

Thanks, Pistol, I can see your points & I take them.  No doubt Justify is Top dog with a capital "T". It's one of those stories within the main story that could be pivotal, which is why it interests me.  You may be right & there's nothing there.

I do think, though, that Noble Indy is capable of harrying Justify for good long way & I also have zero doubt that Justify can put him away...but at what cost?  If Noble runs like he did in the LA Derby (:46ª 1:11 1:37 1:50)  with different fractions because of 12 f. pressing Justify or vice versa, I think the cost be be very high.

I also have little doubt that if required Hope could run with Noble in the early stages.

That's why the scenario with Hope isn't illogical.  Will be interesting to see what actually happens.

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Jun-2

Doesn’t that scenario assume that Justify can lay off the pace while NI and RH battle it out?  The same Justify that’s not been in first at exactly two calls in five races?  I don’t get it.  

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Jun-2

Let's see how it plays out.  It's a theory so I could be wrong & it won't be the 1st or last time, either!

The only thing I will add is that all those "1s" in the running lines are not necessarily because Justify needs the lead, as you imply, but in those races he simply overpowered those fields.   

The only horse that has made him work is the very capable Good Magic in the slop & fog where being in front was a tactical advantage.

So, yes, he'd have to lay off those two & I don't see why he can't.

If, on the other hand, you are correct & he needs the lead, Hope is just in the race as another mediocre competitor, we'll know soon enough after the race begins.

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Jun-2

I’m just trying not to second guess Baffert.  Maybe Gary West’s giving him a good chunk of Hope’s breeding rights or something and he thinks he can make a good showing without getting into Justify’s way.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him scratch if they draw too closely together.  His sire Giants Causeway did just pass on to that big meadow in the sky and everyone will be looking for his replacement.

I’m not sure if Justify thinks he’s supposed to be in front or not.  When I look at his races it sure looks that way, but like you said he might just be that much better.  He rarely does more than he has to though, just enough to get in front, which might bode well in a race like the Belmont.

Did you see Gronk’s work today?  https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vLJspJs31Ys

Tell Giacomo he looks smooth around the turn :)

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-2

Oldbettowin said...

I wouldn’t be surprised to see him scratch if they draw too closely together

Oldbettowin said...

I wouldn’t be surprised to see him scratch if they draw too closely together

Anybody waiting for post position draw in a 1-1/2 mile race may will be waiting for nothing.  This isn't the derby, or the preakness, or a 1-1/8 prep race where jockeys try for position.   1-1/2 miles is PLENTY of time to get to whereever you want to get to.

This is not a jockey's race, it's a horses' race.  

The ones who will still have some wherewithal left going around last sweeping turn, and a little for an "extra kick" is what this race is all about.

 

There IS no jockeying for position, and if there is, it won't help a whole lot, so post doesn't really matter much

 

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Jun-2

Oldbettowin said:

Tell Giacomo he looks smooth around the turn :)

Ha!  I let Giaco see the work & now he wants 100 cat treats to show on Gronk...

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Jun-2

Well it’s not like the derby where they’re all hell bent for leather to the clubhouse turn, but to me the jockey is just as much if not more of a key in the Belmont than in either the Derby or Preakness.  Get too far back and you’re probably out of the race.  Move too soon and someone’s going to pass you before the wire.  Half of the race is in the turns.  If you’re not in the lead and you wait until you’re rounding for home to make your move you’ve probably waited too long.

All I really meant though was that there are scenarios that I’m sure Baffert wouldn’t want Justify in, like sandwiched between Indy on the inside and Restoring Hope on the outside.  At least I can’t imagine why he would.

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