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Belmont Stakes - early topic   Triple Crown

Started May-22 by Wintertrian; 4875 views.
In reply toRe: msg 36
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-1

Hope they get the field set soon, nothing like having to cap a race in the last 12 hours like we did the KY Derby. 

Remember this time last year Rock Your World was favored to possibly win this, after a dreadful Ky Derby run.  (Hard to believe a horse can be this badly ruined, isn't it??  Less than a full year on the track with his kinda pedigree and potential. )    17th in Derby, (yet had the speed to be up front had Rosario had his foot in the stirrups [as an aside, did anyone note that 5 horses loaded AFTER Rock Your World, giving Rosario plenty of time to get his feet right???)    6th in the Belmont.  Hope Spendthrift can mate him with some nice females and someone else trains them.  Will always feel so sorry for this lovely horse---Sadler and some of the other CA trainers who-won't-be-named can't seem to compete in this new-and-modern world of no drugs, no lasix in stakes races, etc.   
 

Kuchar is out.  Howling Time may go.  Not sure I can take any more chances on the Not This Time sire again this year, they seem very speed-biased which for the Belmont isn't the right kind of horse IMHO.  

Golden Glider is one who looks interesting to me from a pedigree standpoint.  Good stretch runner, seems to respond well to his jockey, albeit he's not fast but this isn't the KY Derby so I have no worries about that.  Will have to watch his races and works.  If Gary Barber can "produce" a triple crown race horse as well as he produces movies (Seabiscuit) and GG can run better than War of Will, maybe he can bring it here. 

Also hard not to like Rich Strike.  Also hard to take 6-1 on a horse who was 80-1 or M/L 30-1 though. :( 

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Jun-1

Damn. And I was giving Kuchar a hard look.

pianot

From: pianot

Jun-1

Good call, I found that one interesting as well.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-2

cubs.fan said...

As of now, We The People stands out in terms of running style and pedigree.

 

I'll give my thoughts, right or wrong, on We The People.   

Yes, 6 horses have won the Belmont off the Peter Pan, usually late-maturing types. But since you mentioned pedigree......I've seen comparisons made to Tiz the Law who won the "shortened 9F Belmont Stakes" in 2020 and was bred on the same Constitution/Tiznow cross.  But IMHO, that is deceiving.  Because We The People isn't Tiz The Law.  Tiz the Law had tons of foundation and 3 big graded stakes wins (FL Derby, the Holy Bull, and the Champagne Stakes), and 3rd in the G2 KY Jockey Club.  4 graded stakes races for Tiz the Law, plus his maiden at SAR (at 6F which Tiz also won).     

For comparison, We the People washed out in the only graded stakes he ran besides his Peter Pan (was awful on a fast dry clear track at Oaklawn, where if he had any speed at all it would have showed up there.  He was washy (it's somewhat warm here in April).   So We The People has a failed G1 race, an allowance, and a maiden race for his entire foundation besides his recent Peter Pan win on a wet sealed track.   There is no Tiz the Law comparison AT ALL.  Just bringing that up because I've been seeing comparisons made to Tiz due to the similar breeding.  

If it rains I might consider him but his mare side is more speed than stamina, and I'm not sure his stamina levels are up to Belmont Stakes standards.   I think the sealed track made him look faster and better than he is, and he is lacking foundation I like to see in a Belmont runner.  All his sire's wins were run at 9F.   

The question is really does one favor a "pace-setter" who really doesn't have that much speed except on a wet sealed track, lacks foundation, and doesn't seem (to me) like the kind of horse who can "relax into an even gallop" ---- over one of the off-the-pace types for the Belmont?   If you do then We The People might work.  

 I remember being WILD in love with Commissioner, who ran 2nd in Peter Pan to Tonalist, and 2nd in the Belmont Stakes to him that year.  At 28-1 odds, he was "worth the bet" for me, he was actually the pace-setter in that rendition of the Belmont for most of that whole race and he hung in there right up to the very end!  )   I couldn't wait to get to the window with my $$ that day to wager on him (talked about him a lot on this forum that year).  Photo finish, I almost thought my Commissioner guy had won at killer odds, but place paid $23.20....which was $3 more than the winner Tonalist paid!!!  

So maybe Golden Glider is my Commissioner this year.  Dunno yet.    While We The People was prepping at Keenland, Casse had Golden Glider at Belmont since 5/01 and I think that helped him in the Peter Pan,, but I also think he is very well acclimated to that track by now as well.  GG has also run in 3 graded stakes (albeit not successfully, so he may compare to We The People here in that way but I thought he showed upside, and I like his running style laying off the pace and doing best work coming into stretch) and w/his maiden and allowance  "foundation" is there at least. 

Due dillegence would require comparing We The People to Tiz the Law (which I just did here) but also to High Gun ('54), Gallant Man ('57), Cavan ('58), Coastal ('79) and Tonalist (2014).....the latter also didn't have much foundation either (but he had Christophe Clement) and had to race against California Chrome in that Belmont and I sure don't see any horses like Chrome in this race.  Tonalist ran off the pace about 3-4 horses until the far turn and then turned it on.   Coastal winner ran 4th during most of the race with Spectalar Bid and General Assembly ahead of him and then turned it on in top of the stretch.  Cavan of course beat Tim Tam that year, it was a 2 horse race, both ran on the front.  

The not peter pan winners, like Tapwrit, Palace Malice, etc. bear watching their races, too.  Hot Rod charlie was pacesetter and he did not win the Belmont.  Of note, Pletcher horses do show up on a superfecta ticket so must include.  (except not one-dimensional deep closers like Bourbonic.  LOL)  In 20 or so Belmonts, only a very few pace setters have been victorious on the front end.  My preference?   Horses who really start to run at the mile or 1-1/4 mile pole. 

In reply toRe: msg 40
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-2

Also wanted to add, that sire side Dosage Index of 4.33 w/out some serious mare stamina to balance it out is worrisome in the We The People profile, if you believe in that stuff.  

In reply toRe: msg 41
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-2

I think Brigadier General is joining the field?  Dallas Stewart, Street Sense, E8 running style. Early Speed, RAN/Buckpasser-X if you are into that stuff.  Early speed but hardly "speedy" IMHO, (which is fine!)   The Belmont for me will always be about pedigree, anyone planning on doing gate-to-wire better have some very serious goods on both sides cuz regular ol' bris PP type speed isn't going to necessarily cut it.  

Best hope it does not rain. I see more horses in this race who can probably run well on slop than I do ones who can run on fast/dry, just glancing?

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

Jun-4

I think he hits the board.  We the People is my number one choice along with Rich Strike, Creative Minister & Barber Road.   

In reply toRe: msg 40
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-4

Wintertrian said...

Of note, Pletcher horses do show up on a superfecta ticket so must include.  (except not one-dimensional deep closers like Bourbonic.  LOL) 

Actually didn't mean to suggest all of Pletcher's horses.  I wouldn't have used Bourbonic for anything.    If you watch all of Pletcher's Belmont wins and long distance wins, he understands pace.    Gotta give him props for that.    Watching all his winner's races, you start to see where his horses are positioned early in the race.   He gets that part. 
 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-5

GamblingMel said...

I think he hits the board.  We the People is my number one choice along with Rich Strike, Creative Minister & Barber Road.

Looks like a good ticket GM, good luck but PPs aren't even out yet?   Not suggesting you change it though. 

I didn't say WTP wouldn't hit the board, just that I don't think he will win.  I didn't just say that, I shared my reasons why (right or wrong).   Belmont isn't going to have a lot of pace this year IMHO and in general there will be no reason for any speedsters to kill themselves trying to get to the front like in KY Derby or Preakness.  He could win.   Any horse in this very short field can win.  

As for your picks, no offense meant, but picks are a dime a dozen.  Without an analysis of why someone chose certain horses, they don't mean much to me.   I like to read analysis and reasons and how cappers separated out their horses, and why.   That has always been a hallmark of this board, people doing homework and sharing insights and many hours of homework with others.....to benefit others and help them cap races and see things they may not have seen.   

If this board ever becomes a low-effort pick site, I'll be long gone.  :)  

So ky derby winner and 3 tapits.  What if there were 6 tapits  in the race?   This is what I mean.  How would you have separated them out?   Since 2013 4 Tapits have won the Belmont, but in same period of time, 4 non-Tapits have won.  (In 3rd place, for anyone playing a tri, we have since 2013, a Twirling Candy, Shanghai Bobby, Dynaformer and a Malibu Moon.  (with some other sires like Lonro, AP Indy, Giants, PON, etc. in there).  There is a huge list of other sires/BMS/  influences who have won/placed in the Belmont.  Then you say WTP is your top choice then call him a board hit.   You mean for the win since he is your first choice, right?  



 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-5

pianot said...

Good call, I found that one interesting as well.

I find them ALL interesting.  The more I look carefully into any horse the more fascinating they become.   At any rate, I did a write up on him today if you wanna read it.  

http://forums.delphiforums.com/horse_racing/messages/?msg=1935.24

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