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American Derby and Dwyer Stakes 7/2/2022   Handicapping

Started 7/2/22 by Wintertrian; 1130 views.
In reply toRe: msg 1

From: Wintertrian


Am interested to see how longshot Kitodan does in this race.   He can run on synth, turf, and dirt but not sure about dirt at "this" distance.   I do love omni-surface horses, though, like Einstein, they are often just a cut above. 

Kuchar (uncle mo)  if he remains in condition is a pretty formidable colt, IMHO.  Doesn't give in easily.  Watched him a few times at Oaklawn.   Also like Red Run (Gun Runner) but doesnt seem to be performing up to his breeding.    McLauren Vale and Rattle n Roll will take the $$.   Rattle n' Roll might win this.

Like the chalk, Charge It, in the Dwyer. 

Got a stable notification on Graham Motion's Zatip for July 1, thought he was a total shoe -in for the win at 7F, (Laurel R8) noting his after-burners in the stretch in his previous 7F maiden at Keenland.  Unfortunately I missed the race and missed playing him.  .  


From: pianot


I might try Double Clutch in the American. Turf to dirt angle.

Just scratched. Oh well.

  • Edited July 2, 2022 11:39 am  by  pianot
In reply toRe: msg 4



I like Charge It, but considering the fact that the second place finisher probably covered the mile in close to 1:40, I will temper my excitement over his Dwyer performance. He was really good, but 23 lengths? Who was in that race?


From: smartyslew


Wow, Look at the Rockin Chair Jockeys in this race and the name of the Horses, If I remember, later to see 

how this field does in future races if they ever race again. At 7 Furlongs his lead was 10 lengths , It doesn't seem right.

# Horse A/S M/E Wgt PP St 1/4 1/2 3/4 Str Fin Jockey Odds
1 Charge It 3 C 118 1 4 21 22 13 110 123 Velazquez John R. *0.60
5 Runninsonofagun 3 G 119 5 5 55 41 31 1/2 2hd 22 1/4 Carmouche Kendrick 15.80
3 Fluid Situation 3 C 118 3 2 11/2 11/2 21/2 32 1/2 3no Castellano Javier 8.80
4 Unbridled Bomber 3 C f 118 4 6 6  6  53 1/2 512 41 1/4 Ortiz Jose L. 17.20
2 No Sabe Nada 3 G 122 2 3 41/2 31/2 48 44 1/2 530 1/4 Alvarado, Jr. Roberto 42.25
6 Nabokov 3 C 118 6 1
...[Message truncated]
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From: smartyslew


Rewatched it, JV misjudged the finish line standing up Early LOL.

enjoyed the splits and the action and Rhythm of Charge It, Nice work out.

The others in the Race didn't deserve their p-urse. 


From: Gerh


Charge It got a 111 Beyer and 133 Timeform fig for the race.Pretty lofty numbers


From: Gerh


The last two times Kitodan ran I used him in exactas and didn’t have the second place horse.Yesterday I played him WPS and he finished 4th

In reply toRe: msg 8

From: smartyslew


That's a Wow looking at the race as a workout from many, A hand ride with smooth Action,

JV stood up early before the wire, 2nd place Horse Stumbled at the Start, Charge It wins by 23 lengths,

I wonder what number the Race Guru's gave the 2nd place Horse.


From: TexSquared


I should have noticed this earlier... why is the American Derby suddenly a dirt race? This is one of the races Churchill "stole" from Arlington when they closed that track for good. The American Derby was the local prep for the Secretariat Stakes, so it was a turf race.  

[edited to add]

Oh, their turf course needs time to grow in the roots deeper... ouch...

Roger Attfield commented on it yesterday at Woodbine, the course must have been shit Derby week:

"She's an interesting filly to train and she was unlucky this winter. Churchill was a disaster with that turf course. It's funny really because the jockey that rode her came back and said, you know, she wasn't having it with the turf course, the turf course was too loose, and then it turned out that it wasn't really ready to run."