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I'm going to try to beat him on the square. I still think his schedule has to take something out of him. His number in the Preakness was supposedly lower than in the Derby, and he was all out. Sure he looks good breezing, he's running 4 to 5 furlongs at a moderate speed. I think by furlong 10 or 11, he will begin to wilt. If not, then he beats me. It's a hunch, and I hope I get better than 9/2.
I have to admit that I was a bit distressed to hear that he drew the one but it’s been 20 years (Touch Gold) since one was a winning post (thanks Cindy!). http://www.horse-races.net/library/bel-winners.htm
It’ll be interesting to see if they send Indy to the front. That would seem to be his best shot, on the front, but do they try to get in front of Justify? Probably should wait until after the first turn unless they can get right beside him. Does Baffert have Florent try to block Castellano and Indy? This is going to get interesting.
I would expect to see Restoring Hope floating Noble Indy wide
Pretty much what I was picturing. But if everyone thinks it will they still do it? Yeah I’m sure they would lol.
Blinkers off for Noble Indy. Not sure if that helps him or not.
If you are worried about post position, especially at Belmont, then you don't think he is the best horse. Always kills me that people think the best horse should get the best post otherwise they are in trouble. If that is the case, they are not the best. If on Saturday, that rail is dead, then that would be a concern but cannot say now.
Baffert has ran interference with his other horse before, so that would not be new. But I would have thought he would have brought one of his SC guys for that. They do have a good spot for that though.
Hard to believe Gronk and Tenfold will be the same. Don't think a lot of New Englanders will be going down there. I have heard a lot of talking heads mentioning Tenfold, so I am expecting him to get bet down. Seem to hear more talking about him than Bravazo, not as much as Hofburg.
Need some value on some others, so fine with me. Third place finishers in the Preakness have not done well in the Belmont in the last ~20 years.
GamblingMel said...Noble Indy will hit the board. He will. Mark my words.
then why aren't you playing him?
PISTOL9 said...If you are worried about post position, especially at Belmont, then you don't think he is the best horse. Always kills me that people think the best horse should get the best post otherwise they are in trouble
I find it amusing that in a 1-1/2 mile race, with horses who are going to spit the bit at 9F, that we're even talking about post position having any significance.
Let's face it, if you can't get into a position in a race this long, then the horse is basically a miler or just not very good.