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Hard to believe Gronk and Tenfold will be the same. Don't think a lot of New Englanders will be going down there. I have heard a lot of talking heads mentioning Tenfold, so I am expecting him to get bet down. Seem to hear more talking about him than Bravazo, not as much as Hofburg.
Need some value on some others, so fine with me. Third place finishers in the Preakness have not done well in the Belmont in the last ~20 years.
GamblingMel said...Noble Indy will hit the board. He will. Mark my words.
then why aren't you playing him?
PISTOL9 said...If you are worried about post position, especially at Belmont, then you don't think he is the best horse. Always kills me that people think the best horse should get the best post otherwise they are in trouble
I find it amusing that in a 1-1/2 mile race, with horses who are going to spit the bit at 9F, that we're even talking about post position having any significance.
Let's face it, if you can't get into a position in a race this long, then the horse is basically a miler or just not very good.
at any rate, G1 horses win G1 races. There are only 2 G1 horses in here, (and one of them got Secretariat's post position which is good luck to me) so I'll add Tenfold to those 2 and add in one more (not sure who yet if anyone has any suggestions. LOL) and call it a day, with w/p/s side wagers on my top 2 (tenfold and free drop billy, who I've been wanting to play since before ky derby.)
I "may" have to put a side wager on #9 because i always win raffles with that number LOL but oh dear, I jsut saw who it is, and Repole has pretty much said he's going to "send". Noble Indy seems like he would be running on empty if this is the case? speed horses haven't done very well in the BEL as of late.....
My thinking is if Justify got stuck on the rail without the lead like Chrome did he will come up just short while if he had the lead on the rail he might hold on.
I wouldn't mind Hofburg for the win. In fact, I would prefer it from a betting standpoint the way I'm going to play. I can't leave out Justify but I do admire your stand.
The only figure maker that has Justify's Preakness better than his Derby is TimeformUS. I imagine it is because that figure includes, besides final time, a pace calculation for the subject horse & a pace calculation for the race itself, all into one figure. TFUS gave Justify a 127 for The Derby & a 128 for The Preakness.
Hofburg is clear 2nd choice on the m/line, Rae. If he drifts up, it won't be by much, IMO.
I agree. Gronk at 12-1 is an awful underlay for the win. Tenfold is actually a slight overlay in my book. I think 8-1 is fair value for him. I agree he will drop a bit from the m/line.
Citizen is a tasty overlay on the m/line, IMO.
Bravazo is a nice horse but I don't like him in here. I think he ends up chasing & fading. Or else the Coach calls for a squeeze play, putting Free Drop over on the break. :)
I do expect Hofburg to be closer early but not that close. Attending the pace in a relaxed stalk.
Frankly, I don't think Winstar wants Noble Indy to spoil the party & Repole (the other owner) has Vino. Vino, I worry about a little because I'm leaving him out.
Several of the Belmont jocks will get a tour of the full circuit in the 5th race, as well.
Rain is called for but it looks like only enough to tighten up the track & make it faster than usual.
If Noble Indy is sent, he has to clear before the never-ending clubhouse turn. Otherwise, he will be hung wide. Restoring Hope has some early foot & Baffert is clearly not above sending him at a pace to keep Noble in the bleachers.
The Belmont is, among other things, a terrific jock race. Many will get lost out there & sink their mounts' chances.
I said I was distressed about Justify getting the one because I think it probably increases his chances, not decrease. I’m trying to beat him lol. Would you still say post positions don’t matter in the Belmont if Noble Indy had drawn the two?